Archive

DEEP DIVE: Lots Of Explanations For Current Labor Shortage

Oct 23, 2022 6 min read paid Featured

Sure, Covid caused many workers to leave the workforce owing to health concerns or for caregiving purposes. But it’s not the only reason for the depressed US labor-force participation rate. Now that the pandemic has abated, life has normalized, but labor-force participation hasn’t. In September, the participation rate was merely 62.3%, over a full percentage point below the level just before the pandemic, in February 2020, of

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, October 24-28

Oct 22, 2022 1 min read paid

The Q3 earnings reporting season will get most of the attention this week from equity investors. Fortunately, we all get a break from the "Federal Open Mouth Committee" until November 4! But we will all be thinking about how the FOMC might react to this week's stats.

Ed Yardeni

Fed May Be Dialing Back On Hawkish Squawking

Oct 22, 2022 2 min read

The S&P 500 rallied 2.37% to 3,752.75 on Friday as the 2-year US Treasury note yield fell to 4.50% from 4.61% on Thursday (chart). The happy day's performance was sparked by Friday's WSJ article titled "Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes." It was written by the Journal'

Ed Yardeni

Trick Or Treat For U.S. Treasury Market?

Oct 21, 2022 2 min read paid

Halloween has come early to the US Treasury securities market. Fed officials have been scrambling in recent days to scare investors almost every day in speeches declaring that they will continue to raise the federal funds rate (FFR) until inflation breaks. They are going trick-or-treating now because they won't be able to do so during Halloween which falls in their "blackout period" starting Saturday and ending

Ed Yardeni

Loose Lips Sink Bonds & Stocks

Oct 20, 2022 2 min read paid

The members of the FOMC ("Federal Open Mouth Committee") continue to sink prices in the fixed-income markets. The 2-year Treasury yield soared to 4.62% today, while the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.24% (chart). The S&P 500 rallied through mid-morning, but then fell the rest of the day to 3665.78, just below the June 16 low. Triggering today's selloff in the

Ed Yardeni

Mid-Term Elections Tend To Be Consistently Bullish

Oct 20, 2022 1 min read

In Tuesday's QuickTakes, we observed that since 1928, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% on average during September, by far the worst performance of any month. October, November, and December were up 0.5%, 0.6%, and 1.4% on average. We concluded: "Yes, Virginia, there really is a Santa Claus rally. Apparently, it tends to be even more likely during mid-term election years."

Ed Yardeni

The Housing Recession Deepens

Oct 19, 2022 1 min read paid

Fed officials have described the housing downturn as a "correction." For example, in an October 6 speech, Fed Governor Christopher J Waller said, "While this market correction could be fairly mild, I cannot dismiss the possibility of a much larger drop in demand and house prices before the market normalizes." He also said that "after mortgage rates stabilize, their drag on housing demand should ebb.

Ed Yardeni

Bull-Bear Ratio Still Under 1.00

Oct 19, 2022 1 min read paid

The Bull-Bear Ratio was below 1.00 for the fifth successive week this week, edging up to 0.78 after falling steadily from 1.15 in mid-September to 0.57 last week—which was the lowest since March 2009. Bullish sentiment increased for the first time in five weeks, to 31.3%, after falling the prior four weeks from 32.4% to 25.0%—which was the fewest bulls since

Ed Yardeni

Yes, Virginia, There Really Is a Santa Claus Rally

Oct 18, 2022 1 min read

Since 1928, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% on average during September, by far the worst performance of any month. October, November, and December were up 0.5%, 0.6%, and 1.4% on average (chart). Yes, Virginia, there really is a Santa Claus rally. Apparently, it tends to be even more likely during mid-term election years. A September 23 post on TheStreet reported, "According to the

Ed Yardeni

No Recession In Banking & Production

Oct 18, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P had another good day today following relatively upbeat reports from the banks about their business. The two largest banks in America say that the economy is still growing. On Monday, BOA CEO Brian Moynihan said, “Consumers are spending, they have money, they are employed and they have good credit.” On Friday, at the end of last week, even JPM CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledged, "Consumers are

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/17/22

Oct 17, 2022 1 min read

More persistently pernicious inflation than expected is at the root of the financial market’s bearish sentiment. Revenues, profit margins, and earnings have been holding up relatively well; the market’s big problem is a significant downward rerating of the P/E multiples that investors are willing to pay in this inflationary economic environment. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500: Why Today's Sizzle?

Oct 17, 2022 2 min read

The S&P 500 sizzled last week on Thursday. It fizzled on Friday. Why is it sizzling again today? On Friday, Reuters interviewed St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. As we observed in today's Morning Briefing, Bullard said that he favors “frontloading” hikes in the FFR, with a wait-and-see stance on 2023. In other words, he suggested that the Fed should go ahead with the widely expected

Ed Yardeni