Paid Opera & The Fed Sep 30, 2022 1 min read paid They say that "the opera ain't over 'til the fat lady sings." Similarly, the current bear market ain't over until Fed Chair Jerome Powell pivots yet again. Since the late summer, Powell & Co. have been squawking like hawks about their commitment to bring inflation down no matter how high interest rates must go. They should all be wearing Volcker 2.0 T-shirts. Ed Yardeni
Public Apple & FedEx Spook the Market Sep 29, 2022 1 min read Halloween is a month away. The Q3 earnings season starts early next month. But analysts and investors are already getting spooked by a rotten Apple forecast and frightening guidance from FedEx: (1) Apple shares declined nearly 5% today as Bank of America cut its rating to neutral from buy (chart). It fell yesterday on a report that the company has told suppliers to scrap plans to increase iPhone 14 production. Ed Yardeni
Paid Market Call: Back Above 3666, BBR Under 1.00 Sep 28, 2022 1 min read paid On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell below the June 16 low of 3666 to 3647. Today, it bounced back above that devilish number to 3719. The good news was that a major central bank was forced to pivot by the Bond Vigilantes. On Monday and Tuesday, the foreign exchange value of the British pound and bond prices crashed, sending US bond yields soaring and stocks falling. Today, the Ed Yardeni
Public Oh No: The Fed Is Making Another Big Mistake! Sep 27, 2022 2 min read Are Fed officials making another big mistake? They were behind the inflation curve during 2020 and the first half of 2021 because they prioritized lowering the unemployment rate relative to keeping inflation down. Now they are scrambling to get ahead of the inflation curve, or at least catch up with it. So they raised the federal funds by 75bps at each of the last three FOMC meetings to a range Ed Yardeni
Public The Bond Vigilantes: They're Baaaack! Sep 26, 2022 1 min read The Bond Vigilantes are back. They were last active during the 1980s and early 1990s. They've been mostly lying low since then. That's partly because inflation remained remarkably subdued from the mid-1990s through 2020. Furthermore, in response to the Great Financial Crisis and then the Great Virus Crisis, central banks kept the Bond Vigilantes in check with ZIRP, NIRP, and QE. [1] No more: They' Ed Yardeni
Public Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/26/22 Sep 26, 2022 1 min read We’re in a period of global gloom, with pessimism blanketing different countries for different reasons. In the US, measures of consumer, investor, and business sentiment all have sunk recently, which the stock market mirrors. America’s despondency stems much from the Fed’s words and deeds as it attempts to corral inflation at all costs. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. Ed Yardeni
Paid DEEP DIVE: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Channels Former-Fed Chair Paul Volcker Sep 26, 2022 3 min read paid This is an excerpt from our Aug 30 Morning Briefing.Deep Dives (for paid members of QuickTakes) are occasional excerpts from our flagship research service which is available on a complimentary trial basis here. It seems that Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently read former Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s autobiography, Keeping At It (2018). Amazon’s summary states: “As chairman of the Federal Reserve (1979-1987), Paul Volcker slayed the inflation Ed Yardeni
Public The Economic Week Ahead, September 26-30 Sep 25, 2022 1 min read The blackout period is over for the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee. This week, we can expect that many of the Fed's talking heads will repeat the hawkish remarks made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his presser last Wednesday, i.e., monetary policy needs to be more restrictive to bring down inflation. The week ahead is also jam packed with economic indicators: (1) Consumers & Ed Yardeni
Paid Another Awful Risk-Off Week Sep 24, 2022 1 min read paid The bad news for the stock market this past week actually started on September 16 in the morning after FedEx delivered a terrible preannouncement about the current quarter. The package delivery giant said in a statement the night before that it expects Q1 earnings, excluding some items, to be $3.44 per share, or roughly 33% below the average analyst estimate of $5.10. In addition, FedEx withdrew its earnings Ed Yardeni
Public TINA-TAR: There Is No Alternative To A Recession? Sep 23, 2022 2 min read The financial markets seem to have concluded that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has decided to go Volcker on us. During 1979-1981, then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker let interest rates soar to levels that caused a recession. He did so to bring inflation down (charts below). During his press conference on Wednesday, Powell unambiguously reiterated the hawkish message of his Jackson Hole speech on August 26. In other words, he strongly suggested Ed Yardeni
Public Fed Stays On Tightening Course Sep 21, 2022 2 min read The Fed lifted the federal funds rate range by 75bps to 3.00%-3.25%. Stocks sold off as Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated during his presser today the main points he made in his hawkish speech at Jackson Hole in late August. He stressed that monetary policy may have to be restrictive for a while to bring inflation down, and that the process may be painful. There wasn' Ed Yardeni