Archive

Market Call: BBR Back Under 1.00

Sep 21, 2022 1 min read paid

Given the recent action in the stock market, it's not surprising to see that the Bull/Bear Ratio compiled by our friends at Investors Intelligence dropped to 0.96 during the September 20 week from 1.15 the previous week (chart below). In the past, readings of 1.00 or less have proven to be contrarian signals of good times to buy for long-term investors.

Ed Yardeni

Housing Already Hard Hit By Fed Tightening

Sep 20, 2022 1 min read

Fed officials have been saying that they are aiming to raise the federal funds rate from an accommodative level to a restrictive one to bring inflation down. In their latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released by the FOMC on June 15, they indicated that they believe that the neutral federal funds rate is 2.50%, which is the upper end of the current target range. Odds are that it

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/19/22

Sep 20, 2022 1 min read

Fed Chair Powell seems to be channeling his 1970s predecessor Paul Volcker—who masterfully tamed high inflation amid a severe recession. Today, we assess how August’s CPI shocker may alter the FOMC’s economic projections and policy decisions. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. We expect Wednesday’s

Ed Yardeni

Money Flooding Into US From Overseas

Sep 19, 2022 1 min read

Money from overseas is pouring into the US capital markets, which foreign investors regard as a haven in a world that’s increasingly unsafe for them. Their mantra is “TINAC: There is no alternative country!” The US Treasury International Capital System (TICS) reported on Friday that private net capital inflows totaled $1.5 trillion over the past 12 months through July, near recent record inflows (chart below). Over this same

Ed Yardeni

Major Housing Crash?

Sep 19, 2022 1 min read paid

Billionaire real estate investor Barry Sternlicht said he believes the economy is "braking hard" and that the continuation of rate hikes is likely to cause a "major crash" in housing. The chairman and CEO of Starwood Capital Group said so in a CNBC interview on Thursday. “If the Fed keeps this up they are going to have a serious recession and people will lose their jobs.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: Sept. 19-23

Sep 18, 2022 1 min read

It's a light week for economic releases in the US. The focus will be on the Fed. Wednesday will be action packed with the FOMC's latest policy statement and Summary of Economic Projections both out at 2:00 pm and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's presser at 2:30 pm. Powell is likely to be as hawkish as he was during his August 26 speech

Ed Yardeni

A Bad Week For Stocks

Sep 16, 2022 1 min read paid

This past week, the stock market took a dive on Tuesday following the release of August's CPI because its core rate rose 0.6%, twice as fast as expected. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 30bps during the week to 3.86% as investors continued to raise their projection of the peak federal funds rate during the current monetary tightening cycle. Friday was also a bad day for stocks

Ed Yardeni

Slow Moving Economy

Sep 15, 2022 1 min read

August's industrial production and inflation-adjusted retail sales reports today show that the US economy is growing, but just barely. The former was down a bit, while the latter was up a bit (charts below). Both are included in the Coincident Economic Indicators. Consumers went on a spending spree after the lockdown recession in early 2020. They spent mostly on goods because many services were still not open for

Ed Yardeni

NY & Philly Surveys Show Growth Recession & Peaking Inflation

Sep 15, 2022 1 min read paid

The regional business surveys conducted by the NY & Philly Federal Reserve Banks are consistent with our "growth recession" scenario and provide more evidence that inflationary pressures peaked around mid-year. These September surveys are among the most current readings of the economy and tend to be highly correlated with three other comparable surveys that will be released before the end of the month. They are also highly correlated

Ed Yardeni

CPI Tends To Overstate Inflation Relative To PCED

Sep 14, 2022 1 min read

August's CPI unnerved the stock market because its core inflation rate was higher than expected. August's PCED will be released on September 30 and is likely to show a lower rate of inflation. Consider the following: (1) The core CPI inflation rate tends to be higher than the core PCED. That's because the inflation rates of both durable goods (especially furniture & bedding) and

Ed Yardeni

BBR Edges Up To 1.15

Sep 14, 2022 1 min read paid

We are predicting that the S&P 500 will remain range-bound for a while between the June 16 low of 3666 and the August 16 high of 4300. The index closed at 3946 today, around the middle of the range. Sentiment remains very bearish, which is bullish from a contrarian perspective: (1) The Bull-Bear Ratio climbed to 1.15 this week after falling the prior three weeks from 1.

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Shocks The Markets

Sep 13, 2022 1 min read paid

August's CPI report shocked the financial markets. It was widely expected to confirm that inflation peaked around June based on the drop in gasoline prices during July and August and mounting evidence that durable goods inflation is moderating. The problem is that in the nondurable goods category of the CPI, food inflation remains high, offsetting some of the improvement in energy-related prices (table below). While overall goods inflation

Ed Yardeni