Public The Calm Before The Storm? Aug 25, 2022 1 min read They say that the stock market tends to climb a wall of worry. It has been doing just that since the S&P 500 bottomed at 3666.77 on June 16. It rose 1.4% today even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference tomorrow, and might sound more hawkish to compensate for sounding too dovish at his prior speaking Ed Yardeni
Paid DEEP DIVE: The Tug-Of-War Continues Between the Bulls & The Bears Aug 25, 2022 4 min read paid The latest bear market started on January 3, 2022, when the S&P 500 peaked at a record-high 4796.56. That’s undisputable. But whether the bear market ended on June 16 at a closing low of 3666.77 is a question of great dispute. The bulls, including Joe and me, think so. The bears believe that the bear market isn’t over and that new lows are ahead. Ed Yardeni
Public The Chairman's Speech: What Will Jerome Powell Say? Aug 24, 2022 2 min read Have you heard? Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Friday morning at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Economic Policy Symposium, which is held at a nice resort at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Odds are he won't change his tune much from what he said in his prepared remarks at his July 27 presser, which was less than a month ago. Since then: July' Ed Yardeni
Paid S&P 500 Earnings Stalling Aug 24, 2022 1 min read paid The forward earnings* of the S&P 500 peaked at a record high in late June, just before the start of Q2's earnings reporting season. Since then industry analysts have been shaving their 2022 and 2023 earnings estimates. As a result, forward earnings has stalled. Let's drill down to the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 (chart below): Ed Yardeni
Public The Most Bearish Two Charts In Our Collection Aug 23, 2022 1 min read On our website, thousands of our charts are automatically updated as new data become available. The most bearish of the lot are shown below. The first one shows the Fed's holdings of securities versus the S&P 500. The second shows the former versus the forward P/E of the S&P 500. We added a dotted line to track the Fed’s QT2, which ramps Ed Yardeni
Paid Flash US Business Indicators Flashing Orange Aug 23, 2022 1 min read paid S&P Global released its August flash indexes based on its surveys of US manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers. They are flashing an ongoing slowdown, especially for the NM-PMI. Our quick take is that the data are confirming our "growth recession" assessment of the US economy in 2022. Ed Yardeni
Public Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/22/22 Aug 22, 2022 1 min read The economic slowdown so far this year is not the game-changing “official” recession so widely feared. Waiting and waiting for this Godot of a recession is muting economic activity, but also inhibiting excesses. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. That’s why we expect any recession that does show Ed Yardeni
Public Market Call: Risk Off Aug 21, 2022 1 min read The stock market is overbought. Since June 16, the S&P 500 is up 15% including its 1.2% decline last week back to 4228, failing to rise above its 200-day moving average, which was 4306 on Friday. Over the same period, the Nasdaq is up 19% after giving back 2% last week. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up 41bps from a recent low of 2. Ed Yardeni
Public The Economic Week Ahead (August 22-26) Aug 21, 2022 1 min read The big event of the coming week will occur on Friday at 10:00 am EDT, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address the annual global central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Nothing much has changed since his press conference on July 27 other than that the S&P 500 is 7.8% higher. So he is likely to signal another rate hike in late September aimed at Ed Yardeni
Paid Buffett Is Bullish While His Ratio Is Bearish Aug 20, 2022 1 min read paid Yesterday, the Motley Fool reported that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway was on a buying spree during the recent bear market. Apparently, the Oracle of Omaha isn't concerned that his famous Buffett Ratio remains in bearish territory. In a December 2001 Fortune article, Buffett observed that when the ratio of the value of all stocks traded in the US to nominal GNP exceeds 200%, its best to Ed Yardeni
Public CFO Put Replaces Fed Put Aug 19, 2022 1 min read The Fed Put may be kaput, but the CFO Put is still going gut, as they say in German. Starting in September, the Fed intends to shrink its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. During the first half of 2022, the Fed has remained hawkish, and resisted caving in to the stock market's tightening tantrum. However, Corporate America continues to pour some of its massive cash flow Ed Yardeni
Paid DEEP DIVE: Young Bull Or Old Bear? Aug 18, 2022 2 min read paid There is a fierce debate going on between the stock market’s bulls and bears. The question under consideration is whether the rally since June 16 is a new bull market or just a rally in the bear market that started on January 3? Over this period, the S&P 500 fell 23.6% from its record high of 4796 to 3666. Ed Yardeni