Archive

NY & Philly Surveys: Weakening Business & Prices

Aug 18, 2022 1 min read

We now have two of the five regional business surveys conducted during August by the Federal Reserve district banks of NY and Philly: (1) NY was very weak, while Philly offset some of that weakness. The average of the two composites of business activity fell in August to -12.6, the lowest reading since the 2020 rebound from the lockdown recession. Collectively they suggest that August's M-PMI might

Ed Yardeni

Bull/Bear Ratio Rebounding

Aug 17, 2022 1 min read paid

Pessimism sells newspapers better than optimism. Pessimism also creates buying opportunities for optimists. Investors are no longer as bearish as they were eight weeks ago. From a contrarian perspective, as we’ve seen just recently, extreme pessimism tends to be bullish, unless the world really does come to an end, in which case, who cares? Here’s a quick update on Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR):

Ed Yardeni

TINAC & TICS Update

Aug 16, 2022 1 min read

June's Treasury International Capital System (TICS) was released on Monday. The TICS data tend to confirm our TINAC thesis, i.e., there is no alternative country: the US is a safe haven for global investors confronted with a very stormy global investment climate. Consider the following: (1) On a 12-month basis through June, the US had private net capital inflows of $1.5 trillion (chart below). It'

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Messages From Manufacturing & Housing

Aug 16, 2022 1 min read paid

July was a good month for manufacturing and a bad one for the housing industry. Industrial production, which is one of the four components of the Index of Coincident Indicators, rose 0.6% m/m to a new record high during July (chart). Housing starts tumbled during the month. Building permits, which is one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, also fell during July. There'

Ed Yardeni

Fed's NY Business Survey Takes A Dive In August

Aug 15, 2022 1 min read

The charts below show that business activity plunged during August, according to the monthly survey of the Fed's NY district. It's a shocker. Here are the details: "Business activity declined sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index plummeted forty-two points to -31.3. New orders and shipments plunged, and

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead (August 15-19, 2022)

Aug 14, 2022 2 min read paid

In the coming week, we will likely get more evidence of the US housing recession. However, the economic indicators and business surveys released this week should show that the rest of the economy is growing. July's FOMC minutes released on Wednesday might signal peak Fed hawkishness. Here’s more: (1) Housing. July’s housing starts (Tuesday) will likely show weakening single-family, but solid multi-family starts. July's

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Aug 14, 2022 2 min read

The stock market has been rallying since June 16 on mounting expectations that the most widely expected recession of all times might be a no-show and that inflation is peaking. July's strong payroll employment report and peakish CPI and PPI readings suggest that the cat is out of the bag. That's confirmed by several technical indicators: (1) Breadth. On Friday, over 90% of the S&

Ed Yardeni

Bear-Market Rally Or New Bull?

Aug 13, 2022 1 min read paid

We won't keep you in suspense: We think the bear market in the S&P 500 bottomed on June 16. If so, then we're in a new bull market. Consider the following based on our Blue Angels framework (chart below): (1) Corrections occur in bull markets when investors fear a recession that doesn't happen. The forward P/E drops, while forward earnings continues

Ed Yardeni

Watching The Pump Price

Aug 12, 2022 1 min read

Everyone who drives a car or rides in one knows the price of gasoline on a daily basis. The sharp drop in this price during July fueled the rally in the stock and bond markets as investors concluded that it would help to moderate July's CPI and PPI, which it did as expected over the past two days. We will be watching this price along with everyone else

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: US Is The Safest Harbor In Stormy World Sea

Aug 12, 2022 5 min read paid

Our basic premise about the outlook for the global economy through the end of 2023 is that a recession is more likely to occur in Europe and China than in the US. Of course, a global recession that starts abroad could push the US economy into a recession if it is already vulnerable to one. On the other hand, global investors might conclude that the US is the only major

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Rally As Earnings Estimates Get Cut

Aug 11, 2022 1 min read

Go figure: When industry analysts raised their earnings estimates during the first half of the year, investors thought they were delusional. Investors proceeded to trash stocks because they feared a recession. Now that analysts are finally cutting their estimates, investors have been snapping up stocks since June 16 because they were cheap, especially now that recession fears have abated. The charts below show that analysts collectively have been reducing their

Ed Yardeni

Plenty of Sunshine In Q3's GDPNow & July's CPI

Aug 10, 2022 1 min read paid

There's lots of sunshine in the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model. Today's estimate shows that real GDP is rising at a 2.5% pace (saar) during Q3 (table). Consumer spending is tracking at 2.7%. It is looking like an up quarter for capital spending, government outlays, and exports so far. The downers, so far, are residential investment, imports, and the change in private

Ed Yardeni