Paid DEEP DIVE: More on Inflation & Stocks May 13, 2022 4 min read paid Strategy I: 1987-Style Bear Market? I’ve recently been asked when was the last time we had a P/E-led bear market while earnings continued to increase. Note: The following is an excerpt from a recent YRI Morning Briefing. The obvious answer is 1987. Our monthly Blue Angels framework, which starts in late 1978, shows that the S&P 500 dropped 33.5% from August 25, 1987 through December Ed Yardeni
Public Margin Calls Not Main Source of Selling Pressure May 13, 2022 1 min read Are margin calls exacerbating the stock market selloff? Probably, but margin debt is relatively small compared to the market capitalization of the Wilshire 5000. Ed Yardeni
Paid Market Is Up Despite Hawkish Powell Interview May 13, 2022 2 min read paid Can the stock market finally overcome bad news? Imagine if Fed Chair Jerome Powell pivots further to the hawkish, dark side and says that he cannot guarantee that the Fed’s monetary tightening won’t cause a recession. Ed Yardeni
Paid DEEP DIVE: Inflation Boosts Earnings & Depresses Valuation May 12, 2022 3 min read paid Over the past year, inflation has been having a positive impact on analysts’ consensus forecasts for earnings in 2022 and 2023 but a negative impact on the valuation multiple that investors are willing to pay for those earnings estimates. Needless to say, the former positive effect has been trumped by the latter negative effect. The negative impact reflects the jump in bond yields so far, concerns that bond yields will Ed Yardeni
Public The Buffett Ratio Remains High May 12, 2022 2 min read The Buffett Ratio rose to new record highs at the end of last year. In the past, Warren Buffett has opined that the stock market was overvalued when the ratio of the market capitalization of US equites to nominal GDP rose to around 2.0 or higher. Ed Yardeni
Public Corrections Now & Then May 11, 2022 2 min read The S&P 500 is down 18.0% since it peaked at a record high on January 3. The current selloff is reminiscent of the 19.8% correction during the last three months of 2018 through Christmas Eve. Ed Yardeni
Public Bull-Bear Ratio Remains Below 1.00 May 11, 2022 1 min read The Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) fell further below 1.00, to 0.68, during the May 10 week. Ed Yardeni
Public S&P 500’s Tug-of-War Between Investors & Industry Analysts May 10, 2022 1 min read The meltdown in forward P/Es continued yesterday, while forward earnings continued to scale new heights. Ed Yardeni
Public Dr Ed's Weekly Webinar 5/9/22 May 9, 2022 1 min read We concur with Fed Chair Powell that getting inflation back to Earth needn’t crash our strong, liquid economy. The Bond Vigilantes aren’t as far behind the inflation curve as the Fed: Ed Yardeni
Public A Short-Lived P/E-Led Bear Market? May 8, 2022 2 min read Are we heading toward a P/E-led bear market even though earnings continue to grow? Ed Yardeni
Public More Air Coming Out Of Valuation Multiples May 7, 2022 2 min read The air continued to come out of stock valuation multiples this past week. It has mostly been coming out of the S&P 500 Growth index’s MegaCap-8—i.e., Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and Tesla. Consider the following: Ed Yardeni
Paid DEEP DIVE: Inflation Tends To Be Spikey May 7, 2022 3 min read paid Why is the 10-year Treasury bond yield only around 3.00% when the latest headline CPI and PCED inflation rates were 8.5% y/y and 6.6% y/y? Why would bond investors willingly lock in such a painful negative real return? Ed Yardeni