Archive

DEEP DIVE: More on Inflation & Stocks

May 13, 2022 4 min read paid

Strategy I: 1987-Style Bear Market? I’ve recently been asked when was the last time we had a P/E-led bear market while earnings continued to increase. Note: The following is an excerpt from a recent YRI Morning Briefing. The obvious answer is 1987. Our monthly Blue Angels framework, which starts in late 1978, shows that the S&P 500 dropped 33.5% from August 25, 1987 through December

Ed Yardeni

Margin Calls Not Main Source of Selling Pressure

May 13, 2022 1 min read

Are margin calls exacerbating the stock market selloff? Probably, but margin debt is relatively small compared to the market capitalization of the Wilshire 5000.

Ed Yardeni

Market Is Up Despite Hawkish Powell Interview

May 13, 2022 2 min read paid

Can the stock market finally overcome bad news? Imagine if Fed Chair Jerome Powell pivots further to the hawkish, dark side and says that he cannot guarantee that the Fed’s monetary tightening won’t cause a recession.

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Inflation Boosts Earnings & Depresses Valuation

May 12, 2022 3 min read paid

Over the past year, inflation has been having a positive impact on analysts’ consensus forecasts for earnings in 2022 and 2023 but a negative impact on the valuation multiple that investors are willing to pay for those earnings estimates. Needless to say, the former positive effect has been trumped by the latter negative effect. The negative impact reflects the jump in bond yields so far, concerns that bond yields will

Ed Yardeni

The Buffett Ratio Remains High

May 12, 2022 2 min read

The Buffett Ratio rose to new record highs at the end of last year. In the past, Warren Buffett has opined that the stock market was overvalued when the ratio of the market capitalization of US equites to nominal GDP rose to around 2.0 or higher.

Ed Yardeni

Corrections Now & Then

May 11, 2022 2 min read

The S&P 500 is down 18.0% since it peaked at a record high on January 3. The current selloff is reminiscent of the 19.8% correction during the last three months of 2018 through Christmas Eve.

Ed Yardeni

Bull-Bear Ratio Remains Below 1.00

May 11, 2022 1 min read

The Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) fell further below 1.00, to 0.68, during the May 10 week.

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500’s Tug-of-War Between Investors & Industry Analysts

May 10, 2022 1 min read

The meltdown in forward P/Es continued yesterday, while forward earnings continued to scale new heights.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Weekly Webinar 5/9/22

May 9, 2022 1 min read

We concur with Fed Chair Powell that getting inflation back to Earth needn’t crash our strong, liquid economy. The Bond Vigilantes aren’t as far behind the inflation curve as the Fed:

Ed Yardeni

A Short-Lived P/E-Led Bear Market?

May 8, 2022 2 min read

Are we heading toward a P/E-led bear market even though earnings continue to grow?

Ed Yardeni

More Air Coming Out Of Valuation Multiples

May 7, 2022 2 min read

The air continued to come out of stock valuation multiples this past week. It has mostly been coming out of the S&P 500 Growth index’s MegaCap-8—i.e., Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and Tesla. Consider the following:

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Inflation Tends To Be Spikey

May 7, 2022 3 min read paid

Why is the 10-year Treasury bond yield only around 3.00% when the latest headline CPI and PCED inflation rates were 8.5% y/y and 6.6% y/y? Why would bond investors willingly lock in such a painful negative real return?

Ed Yardeni