Archive

DEEP DIVE: Inflation Tends To Be Spikey

May 7, 2022 3 min read paid

Why is the 10-year Treasury bond yield only around 3.00% when the latest headline CPI and PCED inflation rates were 8.5% y/y and 6.6% y/y? Why would bond investors willingly lock in such a painful negative real return?

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Showing First Signs of Peaking

May 6, 2022 2 min read paid

We are on the lookout for signs that inflation might be peaking. It’s hard to find any when we look at the price and wage data on a y/y basis. However, there are hopeful signs in numerous 3-month percent changes at annual rates. Consider the following:

Ed Yardeni

The S&P 500 Remains In a Correction

May 5, 2022 1 min read

“Ugly” is the only way to describe today’s stock market selloff. The S&P 500 is down 13.5% ytd since it set a record high on January 3. So it’s still in correction territory. It dropped 3.6% today, but that was after a 3.0% jump the day before.

Ed Yardeni

Some Bad & Good News On Unit Labor Costs

May 5, 2022 1 min read

Contributing to the stock market selloff today was more bad news on the inflation front. Nonfarm business (NFB) productivity dropped 7.5% (saar) during Q1. It wasn’t as bad on a y/y basis, falling just 0.6%. It’s a very volatile series on a q/q basis and even on a y/y basis.

Ed Yardeni

China’s Economic Challenges

May 5, 2022 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Stephen Rybka

Bull/Bear Ratio Remains Depressed

May 4, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Is the Worst Over For Bonds?

May 3, 2022 1 min read

We are keeping an eye on the Citibank Economic Surprise Index (ESI), which is highly correlated with the 13-week change in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield. The ESI measures the degree to which economic data are either beating or missing expectations.

Ed Yardeni

Industry Analysts Bullish on S&P 500 Revenues

May 2, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Weekly Webinar 5/2/22

May 2, 2022 1 min read

Spooked investors have driven valuation multiples down to the low end of our projected range and deposited the Nasdaq in a bear market and the S&P 500 back in correction territory.

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Is Deflating Valuation Multiples

Apr 30, 2022 1 min read

More air came out of valuation multiples this past week. Here are the forward P/Es of the major indexes at the start of this year and on Friday:

Ed Yardeni

Regional Business Surveys: More of the Same

Apr 29, 2022 1 min read

April's national survey of manufacturing purchasing managers will be out on Monday. We expect that the M-PMI composite index is likely to remain around its March reading of 57.1

Ed Yardeni

Why the US Dollar Is So Mighty Again

Apr 28, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni