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# Dr. Ed Answers Your Questions
- URL: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/dr-ed-answers-your-questions/
- Published: 2023-06-05T01:25:10.000Z
- Updated: 2023-06-05T01:25:10.000Z
- Author: Ed Yardeni
- Tags: Dr Ed Answers

💡

The following is a roundup of selected questions posted by members in the comment section of our QuickTakes.

***Oaul S*:** "The past 2 times recently that the M-PMI has been this low we were in a recession. Don't the present low numbers presage a recession on the horizon?"

***Dr. Ed:*** Good question. You are right. However, in our "rolling recession" scenario consumers have pivoted from buying goods to buying services.

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***John H*:** "We've heard about US companies moving mfg capacity to other countries including the US. How much of this has actually happened?"

***Dr. Ed*:** Onshoring is a very big deal. Lots of production is coming back to the US including new semiconductor plants, battery manufacturing, and LNG export facilities.

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***Asheesh M*:** "I’m curious, what can we expect if we get a longer than average inversion in the yield curve. Effects on the bonds market, regional banks that are already reeling, other risky assets?"

**Dr. Ed:** Inverted yield curves imply that investors expect that short term interest rates are getting high enough to cause a financial crisis, credit crunch, and a recession. In this scenario, short-term interest rates are expected to fall once things start to fall apart. This time short rates might stay restrictive for longer until inflation moderates further. This could start a wave of mergers among regional banks. Bond yield might stay around 3.50% +/- 50bps.

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