> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 16-20 - URL: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-november-16-20/ - Published: 2026-11-15T03:29:49.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-15T03:29:49.000Z - Author: Ed Yardeni ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/economic_calendar_November_2026_week3.png) Last week’s inflation data ran hot. October’s headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m, while the core CPI rose 0.3% for a third straight month. The PPI for final demand rose 0.3% m/m in October after a revised 1.4% in September, lifting the y/y rate to 6.5%, the highest since November 2022. This week’s calendar is busy, with the FOMC minutes, Nvidia’s earnings, Anthropic’s IPO, retail sales, and industrial production. Here’s more: **(1) FOMC minutes & FedSpeak.** Minutes of the October 27-28 FOMC meeting (Wed) should show how many of the 19 participants (12 voters and 7 nonvoters) leaned toward a rate hike. The Committee held the federal funds rate (FFR) target range at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a 25bps increase. Six Fed officials speak this week (Warsh, Williams, Musalem, Hammack, Goolsbee, and Paulson). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh appears Monday at the Fed’s AI and productivity task force hearing in the San Francisco Bay Area. New York Fed President John Williams, who speaks Monday and Wednesday, said on Thursday that “inflation is far too high” and that further tightening will be needed. We think the Fed should and will hike by 50bps in December. FFR futures imply 3.6 rate hikes of 25 bps over the next 12 months including 2.6 over the next six months (chart). The odds of a 50bps hike at the December meeting are just 11.5% currently. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-50.png) The 2-year Treasury bond yield is at 4.86%, well above the 4.00% top of the FFR target range, with 12-month futures at 4.78% (chart). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-51.png) **(2) Nvidia earnings & Anthropic IPO.** Nvidia reports Q3 earnings on Tuesday, its first report since Jensen Huang’s resignation as CEO. Revenue is expected to be $109.1 billion, up from $57.0 billion a year earlier and slightly above the company’s $108 billion guidance. The stock’s forward P/E is down to 11.5 (chart). The conference call with interim CEO Colette Kress, who remains CFO, is likely to be more revealing than the numbers. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-54.png) Anthropic shares are expected to begin trading Thursday, with a price range of $70-$78\. That implies a fully diluted valuation of $1.26 trillion to $1.40 trillion. We feel confident about the company’s prospects based on its S-1 filing. **(3) Retail sales.** October retail sales (Tue) follow September’s 0.8% m/m gain, with sales ex autos up 0.9%. Retail sales ex food services rose 6.2% y/y in September, and Redbook same-store sales continue to run well ahead of the official measure (chart). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-48.png) **(4) Manufacturing.** November’s NY and Philly Fed surveys (Mon, Thu) follow solid October readings. Their average edged up to 23.2 in October from 22.7 in September. The average has run well ahead of manufacturing production growth this year, which was just 1.4% y/y in September (chart). Historically, the two have tracked more closely, suggesting that factory output could accelerate in the months ahead. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-47.png) October’s industrial production (Tue) follows September’s 0.7% m/m gain, which lifted the index to 104.0\. Capacity utilization was 76.9%. Manufacturing aggregate weekly hours slipped to 84.0 in October from 84.2 in September, suggesting that factory output weakened last month (chart). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-46.png) **(5) ADP & unemployment claims.** ADP’s weekly employment reading (Tue) will update a four-week average that has been rising for the past two weeks (chart). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-45.png) Initial jobless claims (Thu) follow last week’s 200,000, up from 189,000, with the four-week average at 195,250 (chart). Continuing claims fell to 1,697,000 for the week ended October 30, with the four-week average steady at 1,709,000. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-53.png) 💡 Join the discussion with Ed below! 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