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# ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 2-6
- URL: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-november-2-6/
- Published: 2026-10-31T19:47:46.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-31T19:47:46.000Z
- Author: Ed Yardeni

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/10/economic_calendar_November_2026_week1--1-.png)

The S&P 500 fell 0.6% last week, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.0%, both posting their third straight week of losses, as disappointing tech earnings revived concerns about AI-related spending.

The FOMC held the federal funds rate (FFR) at 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote, with the dissenters favoring a 25bps hike. We believe the committee needs another 50bps of increases to get back to a neutral FFR that is neither accommodative nor restrictive.

October’s employment report (Fri) caps a jam-packed week of labor market data, including JOLTS (Tue), ADP (Wed), and Challenger and jobless claims (Thu). ISM’s M-PMI (Mon) and NM-PMI (Wed) are also due. Six Fed officials are scheduled to speak. Tuesday’s midterm elections should be interesting. Rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England and earnings reports from Apple, Palantir, AMD, and Qualcomm round out the week's calendar. Here’s more:

**(1) Employment.** October’s employment report is the economic headliner. Payrolls rose 29,000 in September, lowering the three-month average to 50,700 (chart). The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, while average hourly earnings increased just 0.1% m/m. We expect a stronger payroll gain than the consensus, of approximately 55,000.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/10/image-141.png)

Challenger’s October layoff announcements (Thu) follow September’s count of 43,300\. Technology led September’s announced cuts, at 10,800\. Initial unemployment claims (Thu) remain low, with a four-week average of 197,800 for the week ended October 24 (chart). We expect more of the same for both labor market indicators this week.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/10/image-151.png)

The four-week moving average of ADP's employment measure peaked at 26,000 in late September before easing to 16,750 in early October (chart). September’s monthly ADP report showed a 90,000 gain in private payrolls, nearly double the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ 46,000\. 

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/10/image-144.png)

September’s JOLTS report (Tue) follows August’s 7.1 million job openings, down from 7.3 million in July. The share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” was 26.7% in October, little changed from 27.0% in August (chart).

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/10/image-150.png)

**(2) PMIs.** ISM’s M-PMI (Mon) follows September’s 54.5 reading, with the prices-paid index at 77.9\. The NM-PMI (Wed) was 54.9 (chart). S&P Global’s flash M-PMI edged up to 56.0 in October from September’s 55.9, a 53-month high, while the flash NM-PMI eased to 57.9 from 58.8\. Both still point to solid ISM readings. 

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/10/image-149.png)

S&P 500 forward earnings rose 38.8% y/y as of October 26, up from 37.2% in September, suggesting more upside for the M-PMI (chart).

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/10/image-148.png)

**(3) Earnings.** The earnings reporting season continues this week, with 31% of the S&P 500 companies set to report. Apple, Palantir, AMD, Arista Networks, Qualcomm, and Arm headline the list.

Analysts’ consensus estimates imply Q3-2026 operating EPS growth for S&P 500 companies of 23.8% y/y, down slightly from 24.1% last week, after Alphabet, Amazon, and Intel missed estimates (chart). Q4 growth estimates held at 30.2%.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/10/image-174.png)

**(4) Global.** The Reserve Bank of Australia (Tue) is expected to hike its cash rate target by 25bps for a second straight meeting, to 4.85% from 4.60% (chart). The markets are pricing in 88% odds of that result, so it’s no sure thing. Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate at 2.75% despite 95% odds of a hike. Both central banks are often seen as bellwethers for the global rate cycle.

The Bank of England (Thu) looks set to raise its rate by 25bps to 4.00%, with 98% odds priced into the markets. The markets see a 35% chance of another hike in December.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/10/image-145.png)

The Eurozone’s flash CPI (Wed) is expected to rise in October from September’s 3.8% y/y, with the core rate holding at 2.5%. Among the major economies, Spain’s headline rate was the highest at 5.0% in September and Germany’s the lowest at 3.3% (chart).

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/10/image-146.png)

💡

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