> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 9-13 - URL: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-november-9-13/ - Published: 2026-11-07T23:47:03.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-07T23:47:03.000Z - Author: Ed Yardeni ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-44.png) The S&P 500 fell 2.7% last week, and the Nasdaq dropped 4.9%, both posting their fourth straight week of losses. Thursday’s 4.4% plunge in the S&P 500, its worst day since April 2025, came as investors weighed what the Democratic sweep of Congress means for the AI data center buildout. Both indexes rebounded Friday on strong jobs data, with the S&P 500 up 0.3% and the Nasdaq up 1.4%. October’s CPI (Tue) and PPI (Fri) headline this week’s data calendar. Ten Fed officials are scheduled to speak, and the UK and Eurozone report Q3 GDP. Wednesday’s Veterans Day holiday closes the bond market. Here’s more: **(1) Earnings season.** So far, 88% of S&P 500 companies have reported their Q3 results. So 60 companies still have to report, and 13 will do so this week. The "Earnings Squiggles" for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are likely to rise even further over the remainder of this year (chart). Currently, industry analysts' consensus is that S&P 500 companies’ aggregate EPS will be $366.60 this year, $426.30 next year, and $495.10 in 2028\. In the past, Earnings Squiggles tended to fall because analysts were too optimistic. This time, they haven't been optimistic enough! ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/gateway-75.png) **(2) Fedspeak.** Ten Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week (Goolsbee, Barkin, Waller, Logan, Schmid, Paulson, Hammack, Daly, Williams, and Jefferson). These are their first remarks after the Democratic sweep. These Fed heads are likely hawkish on balance, especially after Friday's strong employment report. In early October, the federal funds rate (FFR) futures implied 3.3 rate hikes over the next 12 months and 1.7 over the next six. Since then, those projections have fallen to 1.9 and 1.4 (chart). Friday’s employment report lifted the odds of a December rate hike to 78%. We think the FOMC still needs another 50bps of increases to reach a neutral FFR. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBC on Friday that “the job market remains stable and solid, but not booming,” with real wages falling as pay lags inflation. She expects the Fed “will have to tighten policy further.” ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-32.png) **(3) Inflation.** October’s CPI and PPI reports will be released on Tuesday and Friday, respectively. The Cleveland Fed’s [Inflation Nowcasting](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting?ref=yardeniquicktakes.com) model projects that the headline CPI rose 0.24% m/m and the core CPI 0.21% m/m. That would hold headline CPI inflation at 3.7% y/y and ease core to 2.5% from 2.6% (chart). October would mark the 68th consecutive month of CPI inflation above 2.0% y/y. The model sees both accelerating in November, to 3.9% and 2.8% y/y. The Nowcast also suggests that October’s PCED inflation will remain firmly above the Fed’s 2.0% target, with the headline and core PCED inflation rates projected at 3.8% y/y and 3.2% y/y, respectively. Both are expected to heat up a bit in November. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-13.png) October's PPI inflation is likely to be hotter than September's headline and core readings of 6.3% and 5.0% (chart). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/gateway-73.png) One of the more troublesome components of the PPI recently has been transportation & warehousing services, which jumped 16.0% y/y in September (chart). Soaring diesel prices are fueling inflation. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/gateway-74.png) **(4) ADP & unemployment claims.** Payrolls rose 165,000 in October, well above the 65,000 consensus. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. ADP’s weekly employment reading (Tue) follows a four-week average of 16,750 for the week ended October 10, down from 17,500 (chart). ADP’s monthly report showed private payrolls up 86,000 in October, beating the 67,000 consensus. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-6.png) Initial jobless claims (Thu) follow last week's 189,000, with the four-week average falling to 194,750, the lowest since 1969 (chart). Continuing claims were 1,718,000 for the week ended October 23, with a four-week average of 1,709,000. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-8.png) **(5) Global.** The UK’s Q3 GDP (Thu) rose at an estimated 0.7% q/q pace, up from 0.5% in Q2, when real GDP was up 1.4% y/y (chart). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-10.png) The Eurozone’s updated flash estimate of Q3 GDP (Fri) follows the initial 0.4% q/q reading. Real GDP rose 1.3% y/y in Q3, with Spain leading the major economies at 2.7% and France down 0.1% (chart). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2026/11/image-9.png) 💡 Join the discussion with Ed below! To leave comments or questions, log in to the Yardeni QuickTakes website and post them at the end of the QuickTakes article. Paid members' contributions may be featured in our segment, "Ed Answers Your Questions".