# Yardeni QuickTakes
> Daily insights, focused news, clear charts, weekly video webcasts, and much more. Posted by Dr Ed Yardeni and his research team.
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## Posts
- [US MARKET CALL: Roaring Decades](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-roaring-decades.md) - Last week, we raised our year-end S&P 500 target from 8,250 to 8,400. We are sticking with our 10,000 target by the end of the decade, though we might raise it. Our Roaring 2020s scenario is delivering even better S&P 500 earnings than we expected. FEMO (fabulous earnings momentum) is driving the s…
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 17-21](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-august-17-21.md) - Last week brought mixed inflation news in the US: July’s core CPI inflation rate cooled to 2.5% y/y, its lowest since March 2021 (chart). However, July's comparable PPI rose 4.4%. Wednesday’s release of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting minutes should provide some insights on how Fed officials were asses…
- [The Fed's Divide: Will Core PCED Settle The Debate?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-feds-divide-will-core-pced-settle-the-debate.md)
- [July CPI: The Fed Is Still In The Woods](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/july-cpi-the-fed-is-still-in-the-woods.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Does The Jobs Report Change Anything?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-does-the-jobs-report-change-anything.md)
- [Raising Our S&P 500 Earnings & Price Targets Outlook Due To FEMO (Fabulous Earnings Momentum)](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/raising-our-s-p-500-earnings-price-targets-outlook-due-to-femo-fabulous-earnings-momentum.md)
- [Updating The Worry List](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/what-could-possibly-go-wrong-2.md)
- [US SECTORS CALL: What's Up, What's Down In The S&P 500?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-call-whats-up-whats-down-in-the-s-p-500.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Will Yen Yin Or Yang Financial Markets?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-will-yen-yin-or-yang-financial-markets.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: History Lesson](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-history-lesson.md) - The S&P 500 broke out of its summer range this week to yet another record high. The index closed at 7,757.64 on Friday, clearing the 7,500 level it had circled since May 14. The index is 3.5% above its 50-day moving average and 9.8% above its 200-day moving average. Those are not extreme readings.…
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 10-14](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-august-10-14.md) - Last week, July payrolls fell 23,000, missing the 85,000 consensus, even as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 7 bps on the release before recovering to close little changed near 4.21%. This week, attention turns to inflation. July CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) will…
- [People Close To Warsh Are Talking About Him](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/people-close-to-warsh-are-talking-about-him.md)
- [US Economy Is Fine  & The Fed Should Be Turning More Hawkish](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-economy-is-fine-the-fed-should-be-turning-more-hawkish.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: GDP Growth Is AI-Powered & G-Shaped (Not K-Shaped)](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-gdp-growth-is-ai-powered-g-shaped-not-k-shaped.md)
- [Stock Market's Summer Stall Is Over Thanks To The ‘OK Economy’ & FEMO](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/stock-markets-summer-stall-is-over-thanks-to-the-ok-economy-femo.md)
- [Missions Impossible: The War, The Fed & The Yen](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/missions-impossible-the-war-the-fed-the-yen.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Damage From AI & War Shocks Has Been Minimal](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-damage-from-ai-war-shocks-has-been-minimal.md)
- [US SECTORS CALL: Information Technology Is On Sale](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-call-information-technology-is-on-sale.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 3-7](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-august-3-7.md) - After a week dominated by the Fed news, Q2's GDP release, and four Mag-7 earnings reports, the week ahead is jam-packed with labor market data, capped by Friday's employment report. Fedspeak resumes as well, with Governor Lisa Cook and SF Fed Bank President Mary Daly both speaking on Wednesday. The…
- [US MARKET CALL: Situational (Un)Awareness Hedge Fund Blows Up Without Blowing Up The Market](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-situational-un-awareness-hedge-fund-blows-up-without-blowing-up-the-market.md) - So far, so good. We predicted a summer stall in the stock market, with bouts of volatility rather than a correction, and that is how June and July played out. The S&P 500 has gone nowhere since May 14, fluctuating around 7,500, while the market has churned underneath. The rotation of leadership amo…
- [US Economy Is Still Flying](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-economy-is-still-flying.md)
- [Warsh Fails First Credibility Test: Bond Vigilantes Want More Than Hawkish Squawks](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/warsh-fails-first-credibility-test-bond-vigilantes-want-more-than-hawkish-squawks.md)
- [Inflation Risks Still Outweigh Labor Market Risks](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/inflation-risks-still-outweigh-labor-market-risks.md)
- [AI Capex Boom Continues to Boost US Economic Growth](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/ai-capex-boom-continues-to-boost-us-economic-growth.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Getting Yin-Yanged By The Latest Gulf War](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-marke.md)
- [US SECTORS CALL: Follow The Money](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-call-follow-the-money.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: JULY 27 - 31](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-july-27-31.md) - The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,411.98, down 0.6% on the week, while the Nasdaq fell 2.1%. Oil was the dominant story: The price of Brent crude jumped 7% Thursday to settle at $100.69 a barrel, its first close above $100 since May 26, after Yemen's Houthi militants claimed strikes on two Saudi oil t…
- [US MARKET CALL: MTM & Chips' Profit Margin Distorting S&P 500 Earnings, But FEMO Lives On!](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-mtm-chips-profit-margin-distorting-s-p-500-earnings-but-femo-lives-on.md)
- [Apocalypse Now! Or, TACO Now?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/apocalypse-now-or-taco-now.md)
- [Choke Points & Other Concerns Causing The Stock Market's Summer Stall](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/choke-points-other-concerns-causing-the-stock-markets-summer-stall.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Fed Rate Hike Still On The Table](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-fed-rate-hike-still-on-the-table.md)
- [US Economy Powers On As FIFA Spending & IRS Tax Rebates Fade](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-economy-powers-on-as-fifa-spending-irs-tax-rebates-fade.md)
- [DEEP DIVE: We Still Expect a 2026 Rate Hike](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/deep-dive-we-still-expect-a-2026-rate-hike.md)
- [US SECTORS: Rotations and Corrections](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-rotations-and-corrections.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Downgrading Emerging Markets To Market Weight](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-downgrading-emerging-markets-to-market-weight.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: Hanging Out At 7,500 And 4.50%](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-hanging-out-at-7-500-and-4-50.md) - The S&P 500 first hit 7,500 on May 14 and has remained stuck around that level. The index continues to cruise along its 50-day moving average. A 6.0% drop would send it back to its 200-day moving average (chart). We have seen this movie before, recently, during late 2024 into early 2025 and again d…
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 20-24](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-july-20-24.md) - The week ahead is light on economic data. The entire week falls inside the Fed's blackout period ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, so there's no Fedspeak to parse before the committee revisits the current 3.50%-3.75% funds rate range. Odds are that the committee's statement will remain hawkish…
- [US Consumers Singing, "Ain't No Stoppin' Us Now!](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/born-to-shop-2.md)
- [Too Much Complacency?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/too-much-complacency.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Warsh’s Tasks](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-warshs-tasks.md)
- [A Refreshingly Cool CPI Inflation Report Must Please Warsh](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/a-refreshingly-cool-cpi-inflation-report-must-please-warsh.md)
- [Captain America: Guardian Of The Strait!](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/captain-america-guardian-of-the-strait.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: War & Peace & War](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-war-peace-war.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: Great Expectations](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-great-expectations.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 13-17](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-july-13-17.md) - The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,575.39, up 1.2% on the week, while the Nasdaq rose 1.7% last week. The dominant story was a sharp re-escalation of the war between the US and Iran. Trump declared the ceasefire "over" on Wednesday after Iranian strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, an…
- [June FOMC Minutes Confirm Fed's Hawkish Pivot](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/june-fomc-minutes-confirm-feds-hawkish-pivot.md) - I. Sentiment The S&P 500 first rose above 7,500 on May 14. It has continued to fluctuate around there since then. This may be a sign that investors are a bit fatigued from all the commotion about the Strait of Hormuz, AI, earnings, Warsh, the Magnificent-7, semiconductors, FOMO, and FEMO so far thi…
- [War! What Is It Good For?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/war-what-is-it-good-for.md) - The 1970 song "War! What Is It Good For?" was performed by the Temptations on an album and by Edwin Starr as a single. The song's answer to the question is "Absolutely nothing!" The powerful lyrics include: "It ain't nothing but a heartbreaker / Friend only to the undertaker, woo!" Financial market…
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Making Sense Of A Strange Jobs Report](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-making-sense-of-a-strange-jobs-report.md)
- [Booming AI Imports Depressing US GDP, Though Not Final Sales](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/booming-ai-imports-depressing-us-gdp-though-not-final-sales.md)
- [Rotation Or Correction Ahead In Response To Earnings Season?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/rotation-or-correction-ahead-in-response-to-earnings-season.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 6-10](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-july-6-10.md) - The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,483.23, up 1.8% on the week, while the Nasdaq rose 2.1%. Memory chip stocks pulled back sharply last week, cooling off the parabolic run that followed Micron's blowout June 24 earnings report (chart). Shares surged 17% the next day to a new all-time high of $1,255.0…
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: AI Trade Depresses EM Trade](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-ai-trade-depresses-em-trade.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: A Bubble In Bubbles?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-a-bubble-in-bubbles.md) - The S&P 500 rose 9.3% ytd through July 2. Can it rise another 10.2% over the rest of this year to achieve our S&P 500 target of 8250? We still think so. Consider the following: (1) FOMO vs FEMO. Is it time to underweight the S&P 500 Information Technology sector? It is if you believe the AI trade i…
- [God Bless America!](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/god-bless-america.md) - The United States of America has thrived for 250 years. There have been setbacks along the way. But they were overcome. The Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776 set the stage for Americans to prosper by declaring: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that…
- [Warsh's Sintra Serenade To The Bond Vigilantes](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/warshs-sintra-serenade-to-the-bond-vigilantes.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Update On The ‘G-Shaped’ Versus ‘K-Shaped’ Economy Debate](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-update-on-the-g-shaped-versus-k-shaped-economy-debate.md)
- [A Well-Balanced US Labor Market](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/a-well-balanced-us-labor-market.md)
- [Warsh Taking Hawkish Path to Lower Interest Rates](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/warsh-taking-hawkish-path-to-lower-interest-rates.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: War & Peace](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-war-peace.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 29 - July 3](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-june-29-july-3.md) - The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,354.02, down 2.0% on the week, while the Nasdaq fell 4.5%. Apple and Microsoft raised their consumer product prices on Thursday, citing memory and storage chip costs that have more than doubled since last fall and are expected to double again by late 2027. The driver…
- [US MARKET CALL: AI Fatigue Weighs On The 'Lag-7'](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-ai-fatigue-weighs-on-the-lag-7.md) - As we predicted, the S&P 500 had a June Swoon. We expected that it would be more of a broadening rotation than a widespread correction. That's the way it played out. The S&P 500 market-weighted stock price index peaked at a record high of 7,609.78 on June 2 (chart). It fell 3.4% through Friday's cl…
- [Fed Still Has An Inflation Problem Despite Plunging Oil Prices](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/fed-still-has-an-inflation-problem-despite-plunging-oil-prices.md)
- [Is The Dollar Debasement Trade Kaput?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/is-the-dollar-debasement-trade-kaput.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Will the Real Kevin Warsh Please Stand Up?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-will-the-real-kevin-warsh-please-stand-up.md)
- [June's Swoons](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/junes-swoons.md)
- [FEMO Lifting Economic Growth & Foreigners Lifting US Stocks](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/femo-lifting-economic-growth-foreigners-lifting-us-stocks.md)
- [Healthcare: Pockets Of Alpha](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/healthcare-pockets-of-opportunity-alph.md) - We recommend a market-weight position in the S&P 500 Health Care sector. It is down 3.8% ytd, the worst among all 11 S&P 500 sectors, and remains one of the clear laggards of the bull market that began in October 2022 (chart). That underperformance has created selective opportunities. The aggregate…
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 22-26](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-june-22-26.md) - The US economic calendar is mostly quiet this week, but Thursday packs a heavy data load: final Q1-2026 GDP, May PCED, May durable goods orders, and weekly jobless claims. Lots of Fedspeak will be provided by FOMC participants this week. They will not lack for opinions to compare with those Fed Cha…
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: The Fog Of War Is Lifting](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-the-fog-of-war-is-lifting.md) - As we’ve flagged in recent weeks, an end to the conflict in the Middle East should see many foreign stock markets outperform the US. Lower oil prices reduce global inflationary pressures, give central banks room to ease policy, and tend to benefit oil-importing economies, particularly in emerging m…
- [US MARKET CALL: Is Irrational Exuberance Driving FEMO?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-is-irrational-exuberance-driving-femo.md) - The stock market bubble of the late 1990s was driven by fear of missing out (FOMO) on the tech-led bull market. As a result, the forward P/E of the S&P 500 rose to a record high of 25.0 in early 2000 as the forward P/E of the S&P 500 Information Technology sector soared to a record high of 55.0 (ch…
- [Geopolitical Release Valve Taking Pressure Off Resilient Economy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/geopolitical-release-valve-taking-pressure-off-resilient-economy.md) - The US-Iran interim peace deal is shaky; but if it holds, it will end the US blockade of Iranian ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Now comes a 60-day negotiating period to hammer out a permanent agreement, centered on restricting Iran's nuclear program. The price of Bren…
- [A Hawk In Dove's Clothing ... June Swoon Is Back ... 'We Have A Task Force On That'](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/a-hawk-in-doves-clothing-june-swoon-is-back-we-have-a-task-force-on-that.md) - We weren't surprised by most of the news following today's FOMC meeting. We expected the committee to pivot from April's easing bias to a tightening bias, and they did. We expected the committee to acknowledge that, in their dual mandate, the risk of higher inflation had risen, while the risk of hi…
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Hawks Versus Doves Debate At The Fed](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-hawks-versus-doves-debate-at-the-fed.md) - This week’s FOMC meeting will be the first over which Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s dovish appointee, presides as Fed chair. Will he succeed in dissuading the hawkishly leaning committee from moving to a tightening bias? Today, Ed and Elias set out both the dovish and hawkish points that the commi…
- [Crib Notes For Warsh & Co. On The Fed's Dual Mandate](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/crib-notes-for-warsh-co-on-the-feds-dual-mandate.md) - During the final four months of 2025, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) three times by a total of 75bps. The cuts were justified for two reasons: Inflation was approaching the Fed's 2.0% target, and the labor market was weakening. So the FFR was deemed to be too restrictive, i.e., above…
- [Why Is The US More Exuberant Than China?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/why-is-the-us-more-exuberant-than-china.md) - China has accomplished a great deal over the past few decades, transforming from a poor, insular, and rural economy to the world's second-largest economy. Its transformation has been hailed as an economic miracle. Yet this miracle hasn't been reflected in China's stock market. The China MSCI stock…
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Peace Dividend Should Revive 'Go Global'](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-peace-dividend-should-revive-go-global.md) - The past week was a win for our "Go Global" pivot at the end of last year, as foreign equity markets mostly outperformed the "Stay Home" alternative, i.e., the US stock market. Most of the move came in anticipation of lower oil prices on a possible deal between the US and Iran to end their war. Thi…
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 15-19](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-june-15-19.md) - The week ahead is dominated by the Fed. Kevin Warsh delivers his first press conference as Fed chair on Wednesday, right after the FOMC releases its policy statement and its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes the Dot Plot showing meeting participants’ forecasts for the federal fu…
- [US MARKET CALL: Roaring 2020s Rockets To Mars & Beyond](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-roaring-2020s-rockets-to-mars-beyond.md) - "Space: the final frontier. These are the voyages of the starship Enterprise. Its five-year mission: to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to boldly go where no man has gone before!" That's the introduction to Star Trek, the long-running TV series. On Friday, El…
- [Bull Jumping In Crete](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/bull-jumping-in-crete.md)
- [Inflation & Employment Indicators Are Mixed As Fed Meets](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/inflation-employment-indicators-are-mixed-as-fed-meets.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-on-consumer-strength-bitcoin-weakness.md) - 🔒Exclusive Early Access for Paid Members: Below, you'll find Dr. Ed's latest webcast. Paid members can enjoy immediate access to the video. This content will become available to the public at a later date—don't miss out on early insights, consider upgrading today!
- [Booming Number Of Retiring Boomers Supports Consumer Spending & Depresses Saving](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/booming-number-of-retiring-boomers-supports-consumer-spending-depresses-saving.md)
- [MATERIALS: Small Weight, Big Growth](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/materials-small-weight-big-growth.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: 'Go Global' Getting Fried By Rising Fed Rate Hike Expectations](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-markets-call-go-global-getting-fried-by-rising-fed-rate-hike-expectations.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: June Swoon!](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-june-swoon.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 8-12](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-june-8-12.md) - The week ahead is dominated by inflation prints. The May CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) top the calendar. From a consumer perspective, we will also see the NY Fed's consumer inflation expectations survey (Mon) and the University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment release (Fri). The “Federal Open Mouth Co…
- [Employment Is Heating Up, But So Is Inflation](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/employment-is-heating-up-but-so-is-inflation.md)
- [June Swoon?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/june-swoon.md) - So far, the S&P 500 bottomed this year on March 30 in response to the latest Gulf War. Since then, Fabulous Earnings Momentum (FEMO) during the Q1 earnings reporting season fueled a remarkable 19.1% rally in the index, led by an amazing 44.5% increase in the S&P 500 Information Technology sector (c…
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Fed Turning Hawkish](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-fed-turning-hawkish.md)
- [Is Wall Street's AI Boom Spreading To Main Street? Nothing To Fear But FOMO?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/is-wall-streets-ai-boom-spreading-to-main-street-nothing-to-fear-but-fomo.md)
- [Is There Enough IPO Money On Planet Earth To Fund SpaceX?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/nee.md) - The mega IPOs are coming. SpaceX is set to go public on June 12, raising $75 billion to $80 billion at a market valuation of up to $1.8 trillion. It will be the largest equity offering in history. Then, Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to go public with market capitalizations of $1 trillion to $1.…
- [CONSUMER STAPLES: High P/E With Low Earnings Growth](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/consumer-staples-high-p-e-with-low-earnings-growth.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: 'Go Global' Should Outperform When Strait Reopens](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-go-global-should-outperform-when-strait-reopens.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: JUNE 1-5](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-june-1-5.md) - The S&P 500 climbed to another record high on Friday, closing at 7,580.05. Fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) and falling oil prices boosted stock prices. Brent crude settled at $92.05 a barrel, the lowest weekly close since April 17. Axios reports that the US and Iran have reached a ceasefire-exten…
- [US MARKET CALL: FEMO-Driven Stock Market Meltup](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-femo-driven-stock-market-meltup.md) - As stock prices continue to soar, fears of an AI bubble are increasing. The tech bubble of the 1990s was driven by fear of missing out (FOMO). This time, fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) is driving tech stock prices higher. An earnings-led meltup like this should be more sustainable than a P/E-led…
- [Inflating, But Not Stagnating](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/inflating-but-not-stagnating.md)
- [Gold Ready To Shine Again?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/gold-ready-to-shine-again.md) - This is a quick QuickTakes on gold. Its price seems to be holding above its 200-day moving average on news that Iran and the US have reached an agreement on a memorandum of understanding to extend their ceasefire for 60 days, but President Donald Trump has yet to approve it, according to Reuters. T…
- [What Could Possibly Go Wrong?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/what-could-possibly-go-wrong.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: FOMO vs FEMO (Fabulous Earnings Momentum)](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-on-chinas-lagging-stock-market-an-ai-chokepoint.md)
- [Retiring Baby Boomers & The G-Shaped Economy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/retiring-baby-boomers-the-g-shaped-economy.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: US-Iran Deal Would Boost Go Global Investment Strategy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-us-iran-deal-would-boost-go-global-investment-strategy.md)
- [CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: Another Concentrated Sector](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/consumer-discretionary-another-concentrated-sector.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: FOMO vs FEMO (Fabulous Earnings Momentum)](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-fomo-vs-femo-fabulous-earnings-momentum.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 25-29](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-may-25-29.md) - The US financial markets are closed on Monday for Memorial Day, and the holiday-shortened week is light on economic data releases. On Thursday, the second estimate of Q1-2026 GDP will be reported alongside April's core PCED, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Eight Fed officials speak over the we…
- [Mindboggling: Quantum Computing + AI + Resilient Economy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/mindboggling-quantum-computing-ai-resilient-economy.md) - The Department of Commerce signed letters of intent to invest $2 billion in federal incentives under the CHIPS and Science Act across nine quantum computing and hardware companies. Rather than issuing traditional research grants, the Trump administration is taking minority equity stakes in these co…
- [Fed Minutes Should Please Bond Vigilantes](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/fed-minutes-should-please-bond-vigilantes.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Bond Vigilantes Welcome New Fed Chair Warsh With Loud Bronx Cheer](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-bond-vigilantes-welcome-new-fed-chair-warsh-with-loud-bronx-cheer.md)
- [Don't Freak Out About The Bond Vigilantes Just Yet](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/dont-freak-out-about-the-bond-vigilantes-just-yet.md)
- [Leaders, Laggards & Breadth In The Current Bull Market](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/leaders-laggards-breadth-in-the-current-bull-market.md) - The current bull market didn't start on March 31, 2026. Yet many commentators have noted that the bull market is at risk because it has been so narrow since then. The bull market actually started on October 12, 2022. Since then, most market segments have delivered solid double-digit gains. The prob…
- [MARKET CALL: Time for A Break Or a Brake?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-59.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 18-22](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-may-18-22.md) - On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.2% from its record high of 7501.24 on Thursday. A run of hot inflation data and a spike in bond yields did the damage on Friday. April headline CPI hit 3.8% y/y, the highest since May 2023, while core CPI was 2.8%. The big shocker was last Wednesday's April PPI for fin…
- [COMMUNICATION SERVICES: Highly Concentrated With GOOGLE & META](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/communication-services-highly-concentrated-with-google-meta.md) - We continue to recommend a market-weight position in S&P 500 Communication Services, alongside our market-weight call on Information Technology, which we reiterated on April 25. The sector is a lopsided barbell. Alphabet and Meta together are the only two components of the sector's Interactive Medi…
- [Another Day, Another Step Closer to a Tightening Bias](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/another-day-another-step-closer-to-a-tightening-bias.md)
- [From Cuts to Hikes: The Fed's Shifting Calculus](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/from-cuts-to-hikes-the-feds-shifting-calculus.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Sweet Spot For The Labor Market](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-sweet-spot-for-the-labor-market.md)
- [CPI Heats Up But, Unlike 2021-22, Wages Remain Cool](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/cpi-heats-up-but-unlike-2021-22-wages-remain-cool.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 11-15](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-may-11-15.md) - The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,398.93, another record high. The index is 9.2% above its 200-day moving average. Earnings have done the heavy lifting so far this year. The Q1-2026 earnings reporting season is winding down, with companies representing 1% of the S&P 500’s market cap reporting this wee…
- [MARKET CALL: Raising Our 2026 S&P 500 Target Range Due To Earnings-Led Meltup](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-raising-our-2026-s-p-500-target-range-due-to-earnings-led-meltup.md)
- [INDUSTRIES: Mag-7 Isn't The Only AI Game In Town](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/industries-mag-7-isnt-the-only-ai-game-in-town.md) - Since ChatGPT was introduced in late November 2022, the AI trade has been mostly focused on the Magnificent-7, especially the big cloud companies, i.e., the "hyperscalers” (chart). For a while, they were all viewed as AI dominators until DeepSeek was released by a Chinese software company in late J…
- [Productivity Booms As Labor Market Shows Signs Of Revival](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/productivity-booms-as-labor-market-shows-signs-of-revival.md)
- [Earnings-Led Meltup](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/earnings-led-meltup-2.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Consumers Still Doing What They Do Best](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-consumers-still-doing-what-they-do-best.md)
- [Artificial Intelligence: To Infinity & Beyond!](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/artificial-intelligence-to-infinity-beyond.md)
- [Bond Yields Heating Up](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/bond-yields-heating-up.md)
- [MARKET CALL: Up, Up & Away](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-up-up-away.md) - The stock market balloon is climbing higher, and the burners are firing. It isn't all hot air that is lifting stock prices. It's also earnings revisions, which are increasing for 2026 and 2027. Growth stocks and the Magnificent-7 have reasserted leadership over the past month. Small caps and the Ru…
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 4-8](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-m-20-24.md) - The week ahead is chock-full of labor market indicators. In addition, nine Talking Fed Heads on the Federal Open Mouth Committee are on the speaking circuit, with Williams, Bowman, and Goolsbee coming up twice. Despite the elevated oil prices, the stock market continues to levitate to new highs. Th…
- [The Roaring 2020s Express Train](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-roaring-2020s-express-train.md) - Why is the stock market continuing to make new highs? It's doing so because corporate earnings are doing the same, as the economy continues to speed along without stopping for a recession. The latest batch of data certainly drove the stock market higher today, confirming that we are still riding th…
- [No More Mr. Nice Guy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/no-more-mr-nice-guy.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: The Oil Shock & Inflation](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-the-oil-shock-inflation.md)
- [Powell's Swan Song](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/powells-swan-song.md)
- [GLOBAL CALL: Why Are Stock Prices Rising Around The World?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-call-why-are-stock-prices-rising-around-the-world.md)
- [MARKET CALL: Devil-May-Care](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-58.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 27-May 1](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-april-27-may-1.md) - This is one of the busiest weeks of the year on the economic calendar. Five major central banks meet: the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. Five mega-cap tech names report earnings: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple. Wednesday…
- [INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: Creative Destruction On Speed](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/information-technology-creative-destruction-on-speed.md) - We lowered the S&P 500 Information Technology and Communication Services sectors from overweight to market weight on December 7, 2025. We did so because the two sectors together accounted for 45% of the S&P 500's market capitalization (chart). We were also concerned about the mounting uncertainties…
- [Stock Market Rally Isn't Running Out of Fuel. US Economy Still Acing Stress Tests.](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/stock-market-rally-isnt-running-out-of-fuel-us-economy-still-acing-stress-tests.md)
- [Warsh, Rinse, Repeat](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/warsh-rinse-repeat.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Debating Warsh](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-debating-warsh.md)
- [Power Vacuum In Iran Isn't Fazing US Economy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/power-vacuum-in-iran-isnt-fazing-us-economy.md) - What if the US won the war, but Iran can't surrender because no one is in charge over there? To make a deal, President Donald Trump needs someone to deal with. He was hoping to strike a deal this week in Islamabad, but the Iranians declined to meet because they are too busy fighting among themselve…
- [ENERGY: A Buying Opportunity](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/energy-a-buying-opportunity.md)
- [MARKET CALL: Animal Spirits Are Back](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-animal-spirits-are-back.md)
- [INDUSTRIALS: Earnings & P/E Multiples Boosted By Booming AI, Onshoring & Defense Spending](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/industrials-earnings-p-e-multiples-boosted-by-booming-ai-onshoring-defense-spending.md) - We continue to recommend overweighting the Industrials sectors in the S&P 500, the S&P 400, and the S&P 600. Granted, their valuation multiples are high, but so are their earnings growth rates. The sector's three major indexes all remain on solid uptrends that started in 2022 (chart). The S&P 500 I…
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 20-24](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-april-20-24.md) - The week starts with the Strait of Hormuz still the key risk for financial markets. Today, Iranian state media said the Strait has been closed again because the US “did not fulfill their obligations.” Iran had declared it was open on Friday. A renewed US diplomatic push could send senior officials…
- [Stock Market Highs Confirm US Economy Is A Winner](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/stock-market-highs-confirm-us-economy-is-a-winner.md)
- [The Champagne Glass Is More Than Half Full](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-champagne-glass-is-more-than-half-full.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: On US Profits, Consumers & Inflation](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-on-us-profits-consumers-inflation.md)
- [Mr. Market Says The War Is Over](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/mr-market-says-the-war-is-over.md)
- [ROARING 2020s: Wall Street's Analysts Even More Bullish On Earnings Than Us!](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/roaring-2020s-wall-streets-analysts-even-more-bullish-on-earnings-than-us.md)
- [MARKET CALL: Yogi Was Right: 'The War Ain't Over Till It's Over'](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-57.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 13-17](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-april-6-10-2.md) - The unresolved Middle East conflict will remain center stage this week. It is having an immediate impact on energy prices in the United States. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will push prices up again at the start of the week. The impact on the US inflation pipeline remains the dominant ma…
- [FINANCIALS: Private Credit Fears Creating Attractive Values](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/financials-private-credit-fears-creating-attractive-values.md) - The big money center banks will report their Q1 earnings this coming week. They are included in the S&P 500 Financials sector, which has been the worst-performing one in the S&P 500 this year to date, down 7.3% through April 10, compared with a broadly flat market over this period (chart). One of t…
- [How Transitory Is The Inflation Problem Ahead?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/how-transitory-is-the-inflation-problem-ahead.md)
- [As Yogi Said: 'It Ain't Over Till It's Over' & 'It's Déjà Vu All Over Again'](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/as-yogi-said-it-aint-over-till-its-over-its-deja-vu-all-over-again.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Anatomy Of The US Labor Market](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-anatomy-of-the-us-labor-market.md)
- [Apocalypse  Now, Not! Lowering Recession Odds.](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/apocalypse-now-not-lowering-recession-odds.md)
- [Oil Price Shock Boosts March Prices-Paid PMIs](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/oil-price-shock-boosts-march-prices-paid-pmis.md)
- [MARKET CALL: The Tug Of War Between P/E And E](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-56.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 6-10](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-april-6-10.md) - This week will continue to be dominated by developments in the Middle East, though a heavy slate of data releases—including the FOMC March Minutes, February personal income, and March CPI—will compete for attention. President Trump confirmed Wednesday night that the United States could conclude its…
- [Stocks: Was That The Bottom On Monday?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/stocks-was-that-the-bottom-on-monday.md) - On Tuesday night, we suggested that the S&P 500 might have bottomed on Monday, with a pullback of 9.1% (i.e., just under a 10% correction) from its January 27 record high. Tuesday's strong equity rally was triggered by reports that the US had found an exit ramp from its war with Iran. Wednesday nig…
- [POTUS Sees An Exit Ramp Up Ahead](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/potus-sees-an-exit-ramp-up-ahead.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Bond Vigilantes Are Mobilizing Globally](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-bond-vigilantes-are-mobilizing-globally.md)
- [Relief Rally Ends Correction Risk](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/relief-rally-ends-correction-risk.md)
- [The War, The Yield Curve, The Fed, Private Credit, and Gold](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-war-the-yield-curve-the-fed-private-credit-and-gold.md)
- [MARKET CALL: Stock P/Es Discounting Higher-For-Longer Oil Prices & Interest Rates](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-stock-p-es-discounting-higher-for-longer-oil-prices-interest-rates.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 30-April 3](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-march-30-april-3.md) - This week will continue to be dominated by developments in the Middle East. On Friday, the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and steel facilities, with Iran retaliating across the Persian Gulf, while President Trump pushed back a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face further…
- [Eurozone's Latest Energy Crisis](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/eurozones-latest-energy-crisis.md) - NEWS FLASH: President Donald Trump postponed Obliteration Day again today, until Monday, April 6 at 8:00 pm EST. He said he is granting a request from the Iranian government to extend the pause on potential airstrikes on Iran's power plants by an additional 10 days. That will prolong uncertainty an…
- [Gold, Oil, Stocks & Bonds In The War](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/gold-oil-stocks-bonds-in-the-war.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: From Powell To Warsh](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-from-powell-to-warsh.md)
- ['Obliteration Day' Was Postponed. Time To Buy Stocks?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/obliteration-day-was-postponed-time-to-buy-stocks.md)
- [Thanks For The Memory](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/thanks-for-the-memory.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 23-27](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-march-23-27.md) - The week ahead is all about oil prices. As the Iran war enters its fourth week, the soaring price of crude has rapidly upended economic forecasts and shifted expectations for central bank policy. Nowhere more so than at the Fed. In barely a week, bond traders have swung from expecting rate cuts to…
- [MARKET CALL: Odds Of A Longer War Increasing As Trump Set To Declare Victory](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-odds-of-a-longer-war-increasing-as-trump-set-to-declare-victory.md)
- [Why Is Gold Melting?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/why-is-gold-melting.md) - There's plenty of geopolitical risk today, along with higher global inflation and larger US federal budget deficits ahead. Yet, the price of an ounce of gold is down sharply today. It fell to an intraday low of $4508 per ounce at 9:02 am EST, down from a recent closing high of $5311 on Monday, Marc…
- [Did Powell Trigger A Taper Tantrum In The Stock Market Today?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/did-powell-trigger-a-tapering-tantrum-in-the-stock-market-today.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Is Less Dire Strait Easing Market Fears? (with special guest Eric Wallerstein)](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-is-less-dire-strait-easing-market-fears.md)
- [Oil Shock Is Latest Test Of US Economy's Resilience](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/oil-shock-is-latest-test-of-us-economys-resilience.md)
- [A Break In The Weather](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/a-break-in-the-weather.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 16-20](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-march-16-20.md) - This week, many of the world’s top central banks have their first crack at responding to skyrocketing oil and gas prices driven by the war in the Middle East. Along with hearing from the Fed (Wed), we’ll get rate decisions from the European Central Bank (Thu), the Bank of Japan (Thu), the Bank of E…
- [MARKET CALL: The War Is Getting Foggier](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-the-war-is-getting-foggier.md) - Why has the stock market held up so well since the start of the war? The S&P 500 is down only 4.96% from its record high on January 27 and 3.59% since the start of the war on February 28 (chart). It fell to its 200-day moving average on Friday and held it. The obvious explanation is that the market…
- [DEEP DIVE: Between Iran and A Hard Place](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/deep-dive-between-iran-and-a-hard-place.md)
- [Dire Strait & The Home Front](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/dire-strait-the-home-front.md)
- [FINANCIALS: Black & Blue Owl](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/financials-black-blue-owl.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Between Iran & A Hard Place](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-on-irans-chaos-strategy-owls-woes-038-laser-guns.md)
- [Buying Time Till Iran Surrenders](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/buying-time-till-iran-surrenders.md)
- [Policymakers Trying To Cap Gushing Oil Fears](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/policymakers-trying-to-cap-gushing-oil-fears.md) - Oftentimes, when the financial markets are hit by bad news, policymakers scramble to calm them. That happened today in response to last night's soaring oil prices (chart). (1) G7 response. To address the market turmoil following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the G7 Finance Mini…
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 8-12](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-march-8-12.md) - This promises to be a nerve-racking week of developments in the Middle East. In the nine days since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the conflict has embroiled various neighboring countries. Tehran’s moves to effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz are causing sharp spikes in oil and gas p…
- [MARKET CALL: Oil Price Going Straight Up As Strait Of Hormuz Remains Closed](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-oil-price-going-straight-up-as-strait-of-hormuz-remains-closed.md)
- [Straitjacket: Iran's Chaos War Strategy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/straitjacket-irans-chaos-war-strategy.md) - On Tuesday, we warned: "We've been expecting a pullback due to excessive bullish sentiment, but now we expect a 10% correction from the high. It's hard to imagine that the IRGC won't use drones and speed boats to maintain their effective blockade of the Strait. If they are successful in doing so, t…
- [Dire Strait Versus Home On The Range](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/dire-strait-versus-home-on-the-range.md) - Oil prices stabilized today, so stock prices rose. We expected a pullback in the S&P 500 in early 2026. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% from its record high of 6987.60 on January 27 through Wednesday's close. It was up 0.77% today. Is the pullback over? If so, that's quite remarkable, suggesting investors be…
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Another Regime Alteration](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-another-regime-alteration.md)

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