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# Market Call: September Isn't Always A Bad Month For Stocks
- URL: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-september-isnt-always-a-bad-month-for-stocks/
- Published: 2023-09-03T13:23:03.000Z
- Updated: 2023-09-03T13:23:03.000Z
- Author: Ed Yardeni
- Tags: Market Call, CPI, FOMC

September is the Rodney Dangerfield of the 12 months; it gets no respect because it has been the worst month for stocks on average since 1928 (chart). However, it has been up 45% of the time since then with a solid average gain of 3.2%. Even if the market is down this month, September is a good month for picking apples and it could be a good month for picking stocks.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2023/09/capture1-2.png)

The market's performance this month will probably depend on August's CPI report, which will be released Wednesday, September 13\. That will probably determine whether the 10-year Treasury bond yield continues to trade below 4.25% and whether the FOMC decides to hike or not on September 20\. 

The headline CPI inflation rate was 3.2% in July. [Truflation](https://truflation.com/?ref=yardeniquicktakes.com) is tracking that rate at around 2.60% in August, down from July's 2.73% tracking. On the other hand, the [Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting](https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting?ref=yardeniquicktakes.com) is tracking August's headline and core CPI inflation rates at 3.8% and 4.5% versus 3.2% and 4.7% for July's actuals (chart).

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2023/09/capture2-1.png)

The S&P 500's solid gain of 2.5% last week was predicted by the recent elevated put/call ratios around 1.00 (chart). The index was back above its 50-day moving average by 1.0% and the ratio was back down to 0.65 on Friday.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2023/09/capture3-1.png)

Finally, below is last week's performance derby for the S&P 500 and its 11 sectors and 100+ industries. It is interesting to see Copper as #1\. We are skeptical that China's economy is about to rebound as a result of the government's stimulus efforts. But Professor Copper seems to think otherwise.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2023/09/capture1-3.png)

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