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# Copper, Mortgages, GDP, Breadth & Sentiment
- URL: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/sentiment-breadth-gdp-mortgages/
- Published: 2023-01-11T20:56:29.000Z
- Updated: 2023-01-11T22:04:42.000Z
- Author: Ed Yardeni
- Tags: Commodities, Housing Market, Sentiment, Breadth

Yesterday, the World Bank slashed its 2023 global economic growth rate outlook to 1.7% from its earlier projection of 3.0%. In its [Global Economic Prospects](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/38030/GEP-January-2023.pdf?ref=yardeniquicktakes.com), the bank warned that the global economy is "perilously close to falling into recession." Dr. Copper, the metal with a PhD in economics, begs to differ. The nearby futures price of the basic metal is up to $4.17 currently from last year's low of $3.23 on July 15 (chart). It recently jumped above its 200-day moving average.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2023/01/capture1-7.jpg)

That's quite impressive considering that housing construction is in a recession around the world. Here in the US, mortgage applications to buy a house continued to fall last week (chart). Notwithstanding the US housing recession, the Atlanta Fed's[ GDPNow](https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?ref=yardeniquicktakes.com) tracking model is currently estimating that real GDP rose 4.1% (saar) during Q4-2022 in the US. 

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2023/01/capture2-10.jpg)

Meanwhile, the stock market's breadth continues to improve. The ratio of the S&P 500's equal-weighted to market-cap weighted indexes has continued to move higher in the new year (chart).

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2023/01/capture3-7.jpg)

Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio was 1.26 during the week of January 10 (chart). In other words, sentiment remains relatively bearish, which is bullish from a contrarian perspective. Now all we need is a low CPI inflation report tomorrow morning to keep the new-year rally going. 

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2023/01/capture4-3.jpg)

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