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# The Economic Week Ahead: February 12-16
- URL: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-economic-week-ahead-7/
- Published: 2024-02-11T20:24:43.000Z
- Updated: 2024-02-11T20:24:43.000Z
- Author: Ed Yardeni
- Tags: Week Ahead, Inflation, Retail Sales

Powell & Co. would like to see more evidence that inflation is falling toward their 2.0% target. They should get more of it this week. January's headline and core CPI inflation rates (Tue) should be 0.2% and 0.3% m/m, and 3.0% and 3.8% y/y, according to the [**Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting**](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting?ref=yardeniquicktakes.com) model. We will be focusing on these inflation rates excluding shelter (chart). They are already at the Fed's 2.0% target.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2024/02/gateway-7.png)

January's retail sales report (Thu) could be relatively weak. While payroll employment increased 0.2% during the month, the average workweek dropped 0.6%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.6%. This implies a weak 0.2% increase in private wages and salaries in personal income growth (chart). 

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2024/02/gateway-10.png)

In addition, January's auto sales skidded down to 15.0 million units (chart).

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2024/02/gateway-9.png)

The weakness in auto sales is consistent with the 4.0% y/y decline in auto loans held by commercial banks through the January 31 week (chart). On the other hand, credit card balances reported by commercial banks was still up 9.0% y/y through the January 31 week (chart). 

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2024/02/gateway-39.png)

January's industrial production (Thu) probably fell slightly according to the month's 0.5% decline in average manufacturing weekly hours worked. 

On balance, it should be a good week for stocks and bonds as the inflation indicators--including January's PPI (Fri) and February's inflation expectations (Mon)--confirm that inflation continues to moderate, while the economy is growing albeit more slowly.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/ef/16efc0dd-240f-4f5e-9e01-d619d6fd4fd1/content/images/2024/02/Screenshot-2024-02-03-193856-1.png)

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