Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/5/22

Jul 5, 2022 1 min read

The US economy is probably heading into a mild recession, recent indicators suggest. We now see real GDP contracting by 1.9% this year. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. The good news: The recession should be over next year and should slow the rate of inflation in H2-2022

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Gives Back 2021's Gain

Jul 3, 2022 1 min read

The S&P 500 fell 20.6% during H1-2022 (table below). That's on the edge of a bear market , which is defined as a 20%+ decline. Here are a few more quick takeaways: (1) Of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, only Energy was up, and several industries were down by 30% or more: Energy (29.2), Utilities (-2.0), Consumer Staples (-6.8), Health Care

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 7/5/22

Jul 3, 2022 2 min read paid

Last week’s economic calendar was chock full of recessionary indicators. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is tracking Q2’s real GDP at -2.0% currently, following Q1’s actual decline of -1.6%. It increasingly looks like the economy has entered a mild recession. However, this week’s indicators, with the focus almost entirely on consumers, aren't likely to be definitive on this matter: (1) Demand for

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Is Global & Local

Jul 1, 2022 2 min read

Inflation has soared around the world over the past year. At first, last spring, it was attributed to “transitory” supply-chain problems that have turned out not to be transitory but persistent. Then all last year, excessively stimulative US fiscal policy fueled a demand boom that worsened the global supply shock caused by the pandemic. Early this year, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated energy and food inflation around the world.

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: US Economy & Financial Markets - From Wrong to Right Track?

Jul 1, 2022 11 min read paid

Strategy I: On the Right Track. What could go right or wrong over the rest of this year? The year is half over. It has been an annus horribilis so far. Will it continue to be so during the second half of the year? Or will we see a gradual improvement that might set the stage for an annus mirabilis in 2023? The only investment strategies that have worked out

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Readings in June’s M-PMI Report

Jul 1, 2022 2 min read

June’s national M-PMI was reported this morning, and it wasn’t as weak as suggested by the regional business surveys conducted by 5 of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks. However, the new orders component of the national index was almost as weak as suggested by the comparable regional average index (charts below). Here are some quick takeaways from the national survey of manufacturing purchasing managers: (1) June’s

Ed Yardeni

It's (Unofficially) a Recession!

Jun 30, 2022 2 min read

The economy continues to teeter on the edge of a recession. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model shows Q2's real GDP growth at -1.0% (saar). It was revised down from 0.3% following this morning's release of May's personal income and consumption data. The model shows real consumer spending up 1.7%, a downward revision from 2.7%. In addition, real

Ed Yardeni

European Consumers Are Very Depressed

Jun 29, 2022 1 min read paid

On June 23, Bloomberg reported: “Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has built a $10.5 billion bet against European companies, almost doubling its wager in the past week to its most bearish stance against the region’s stocks in two years.” It seems like a good strategy to short Europe over the near term, especially if tensions between Russia and Europe escalate.

Ed Yardeni

Will Covid Zero Be Followed by Higher Inflation?

Jun 29, 2022 1 min read paid

China's experience with Covid Zero raises the age-old question of whether the cure is worse than the disease. For global investors, the question is if and when China relaxes its Covid Zero restrictions will global inflation soar along with commodity prices?

Ed Yardeni

Bears Are Waiting for Something to Break

Jun 29, 2022 2 min read

Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) remained under 1.0 during the June 28 week at 0.82 for the ninth consecutive week. It has been bouncing around 1.00 since late February. In other words, it hasn't worked as a short-term contrarian indicator given that the S&P 500 has been falling since it peaked on January 3. However, the BBR might have signaled at least

Ed Yardeni

Supply-Chain Disruptions Easing. More Supply or Less Demand?

Jun 28, 2022 1 min read

June's surveys of five of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks strongly suggest that supply-chain disruptions have eased significantly in recent months. However, that has yet to relieve inflationary pressures according to the surveys. The question is whether the drops in regional indexes tracking unfilled orders and delivery times during the first half of this year reflect more ample supplies or diminishing demand. Presumably, if demand is taking

Ed Yardeni

June's Regional Business Surveys Were Recessionary

Jun 28, 2022 2 min read paid

It's hard to come up with anything positive to say about June's batch of regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks. That's because they were mostly in negative territory (chart below). They certainly add to the credibility of the recession-is-here scenario. However, the regional surveys tend to focus on manufacturing rather than services. Indeed, the averages of the

Ed Yardeni

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