S&P 500 Gives Back 2021's Gain
Public
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1 min read
The S&P 500 fell 20.6% during H1-2022 (table below). That's on the edge of a bear market , which is defined as a 20%+ decline. Here are a few…
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Paid Member Posts
The Economic Week Ahead 7/5/22
Paid Members
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2 min read
Last week’s economic calendar was chock full of recessionary indicators. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is tracking Q2’s real GDP at -2.0% currently, following Q1’s actual…
Inflation Is Global & Local
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2 min read
Inflation has soared around the world over the past year. At first, last spring, it was attributed to “transitory” supply-chain problems that have turned out not to be transitory but…
DEEP DIVE: US Economy & Financial Markets - From Wrong to Right Track?
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11 min read
Strategy I: On the Right Track. What could go right or wrong over the rest of this year? The year is half over. It has been an annus horribilis so…
Mixed Readings in June’s M-PMI Report
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2 min read
June’s national M-PMI was reported this morning, and it wasn’t as weak as suggested by the regional business surveys conducted by 5 of the 12 district Federal Reserve…
It's (Unofficially) a Recession!
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2 min read
The economy continues to teeter on the edge of a recession. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model shows Q2's real GDP growth at -1.0% (saar). It was revised down…
European Consumers Are Very Depressed
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1 min read
On June 23, Bloomberg reported: “Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has built a $10.5 billion bet against European companies, almost doubling its wager in the past week to its…
Will Covid Zero Be Followed by Higher Inflation?
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1 min read
China's experience with Covid Zero raises the age-old question of whether the cure is worse than the disease. For global investors, the question is if and when China relaxes its…
Bears Are Waiting for Something to Break
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2 min read
Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) remained under 1.0 during the June 28 week at 0.82 for the ninth consecutive week. It has been bouncing around 1.00…
Supply-Chain Disruptions Easing. More Supply or Less Demand?
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1 min read
June's surveys of five of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks strongly suggest that supply-chain disruptions have eased significantly in recent months. However, that has yet to relieve inflationary pressures…
June's Regional Business Surveys Were Recessionary
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2 min read
It's hard to come up with anything positive to say about June's batch of regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks. That's because they…
Regional Business Surveys Bearish for New Orders
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1 min read
The economy is teetering. After the release of durable goods orders this morning, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model showed Q2 real GDP rising by a paltry 0.3%…
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Stock Market
47
The stock market is driven by two key variables: the earnings estimates of industry analysts and the valuation multiple that investors are will to pay for those expectations. These QuickTakes monitor the latest developments relevant to stock investors.
Economy
28
The US economy tends to grow over time with occasional downturns. These QuickTakes examine the latest economic indicators to assess whether the economy is likely to remain on its upward course, or might stumble into a recession.
Inflation
20
Is inflation transitory, or will it be persistent and even protracted? This is the key question many investors and business managers are struggling to answer. These QuickTakes aim to assess the answer based on the latest data on prices and wages.
SPX Sectors
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