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Bond Yield Rises, Ignoring Weak ADP Payrolls Report

Jul 2, 2025 3 min read paid

The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose yesterday and today on mostly upbeat employment indicators. Yesterday, the JOLTS report came in stronger than expected. In addition, initial unemployment claims edged down, according to yesterday's report. Today, the Challenger report showed a drop in layoffs. The bond market chose to tune out the uptick in continuing unemployment claims in yesterday's report, and it also ignored today's

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: ‘It’s Always Something’

Jul 2, 2025 1 min read paid

Though the stock market is back on record-high ground after a couple of big worries have dissipated, investors remain wary, sentiment readings show. Slowing economic activity has ascended to the top of their worry list. Today, Dr Ed examines how worrisome it is. True, some key recent economic indicators have come in weaker than expected. But that suggests a soft patch, nothing worse. The recent outperformance of four cyclical sectors

Ed Yardeni

Correction: On Fed Governors' Terms

Jul 1, 2025 1 min read

In previous QuickTakes, we wrote that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair expires on May 15, 2026 but that he could stay on as a Fed governor until his term in that position expires on January 31, 2028. However, we were incorrect that President Donald Trump would be limited to the other current Fed governors when appointing the next Fed chair. That's because Fed

Ed Yardeni

Pounding Powell = Pounding The Dollar

Jul 1, 2025 4 min read paid

There is method to President Donald Trump's madness regarding Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been hammering Powell almost daily recently because doing so is very effectively hammering the foreign-exchange value of the dollar (chart). Trump wants a weaker dollar to boost US exports and depress US imports. He has said that he favored a weaker dollar many times in the past, but now he has found a

Ed Yardeni

'Summertime, And The Livin' Is Easy'

Jun 30, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market seems to be carefree. Investors likely figure that any signs of slower economic growth increase the odds that the Fed will ease. Plus, inflation remains remarkably subdued through May notwithstanding Trump's tariffs. June's CPI inflation rate is tracking around only 2.6% y/y according to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model. The dollar's weakness is viewed as boosting

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: New Highs Suggest Stock Market May Be Back In Meltup Mode

Jun 29, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to a new record high on Friday, slightly exceeding its previous peak on February 19 by 0.5%. The bull market that started on October 12, 2022 is alive and well following the 18.9% correction from February 19 through April 8. During that period, the stock market sold off on Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) as well as concerns that China'

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 30-July 4

Jun 29, 2025 3 min read

It may be July 4th week in the US, but we don't expect many fireworks on the economic data front. Of course, surprises could come from events in the Middle East, as Israel, Iran, and the Trump administration figure out whether the ceasefire will hold or missiles will start flying again. Surprises could also come from Trump's trade negotiations. A bunch of deals are expected in

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: What's The Matter With China's Consumers?

Jun 27, 2025 9 min read paid

China’s Consumer Bust I: Blame Xi, Not Trump. As US President Donald Trump does his worst to hobble China’s economy, China’s President Xi Jinping may be beating him to the punch. There’s no doubt that Trump’s tariffs are destabilizing Asia’s biggest economy. Though the current 30% US tariff on Chinese imports is a fraction of Trump’s earlier 145% China tax, it’s still

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

July 9 Trade Deals Deadline 'Is Not Critical'

Jun 26, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock prices got a boost around mid-day today when White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters during a briefing: “The President can simply provide these countries with a [trade] deal if they refuse to make us one by the deadline, and that means the President can pick a reciprocal tariff rate that he believes is advantageous for the United States and for the American worker.” We've been

Ed Yardeni

Semiconductors Leading The Stock Market Higher

Jun 25, 2025 3 min read paid

Since the start of the current bull market during October 2022, we recommended overweighting the S&P 500 Information Technology sector and have been especially positive on the S&P 500 Semiconductor industry. We stuck with that recommendation during the correction in the S&P 500 from February 19 through April 8. In recent days, the industry's stock price index rose to new record highs

Ed Yardeni

A New Day In The Middle East?

Jun 24, 2025 3 min read paid

Any day with a ceasefire in the Middle East is a good day for stocks. On Monday, President Donald Trump declared that the "12-Day War" between Israel and Iran is over. The S&P 500 rose 2.1% yesterday and today on that news to 6092.18 (chart). That's only 0.9% below the February 19 record high of 6144.15. The market rose even

Ed Yardeni

Ceasefire

Jun 23, 2025 3 min read

This morning, Iran launched a missile attack on the US military's Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in retaliation for US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities the previous day. The attack involved short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, with Qatar reporting that its air defenses intercepted most of them, and no casualties were reported. Earlier in the day, President Donald Trump thanked Iran for giving the United States advance

Ed Yardeni