Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 1)

MARKET CALL: The War Is Getting Foggier

Mar 14, 2026 3 min read paid

Why has the stock market held up so well since the start of the war? The S&P 500 is down only 4.96% from its record high on January 27 and 3.59% since the start of the war on February 28 (chart). It fell to its 200-day moving average on Friday and held it. The obvious explanation is that the market is discounting a short war. That

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Between Iran and A Hard Place

Mar 14, 2026 10 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our March 9, 2026 Morning Briefing for institutional investors. US Strategy I: Roaring 2020s Vs Stagflating 1970s Redux. In last Tuesday’s QuickTakes, reacting to the latest Middle East war, we wrote: “We’ve been expecting a pullback due to excessive bullish sentiment, but now we expect a 10% correction from the high. It’s hard to imagine that the IRGC [the Islamic Revolutionary Guard

Ed Yardeni

Dire Strait & The Home Front

Mar 12, 2026 5 min read paid

Stock and bond prices fell today as oil prices rose back to around $100 per barrel. The US and Israel continue to pound Iran from the air, but Iran's regime continues to launch missiles and drones at Gulf nations and vessels, and Israel too. The WSJ reported today that "Israeli officials assess Iran's ruling regime is unlikely to fall soon, as its rulers remain in

Ed Yardeni

FINANCIALS: Black & Blue Owl

Mar 11, 2026 3 min read paid

Today, the 32-member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously approved a coordinated emergency oil release of 400 million barrels, the largest in its 52-year history. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed approximately 20mbd of oil from the global market. That implies the IEA is providing 20 days' worth of relief oil supplies and that the group expects a short war. The price of a

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Between Iran & A Hard Place

Mar 11, 2026 1 min read paid

With the US suddenly thick in the fog of war, Dr Ed discusses the collateral effects on the US economy and stock market. Spiking oil prices may precipitate a stock market correction rather than a bear market, but the latter is possible. The Roaring 2020s remains Dr Ed’s base-case outlook for the rest of this year with subjective odds unchanged at 60%. But there’s now much less chance

Ed Yardeni

Buying Time Till Iran Surrenders

Mar 10, 2026 4 min read paid

Tomorrow, the 32 countries that are members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) will vote on an IEA proposal to tap their strategic petroleum reserves to bring down oil prices, which have been boosted by the latest war in the Middle East. The release would exceed the oil that IEA countries released after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The IEA members hold 1.8 billion barrels in reserves, which include

Ed Yardeni

Policymakers Trying To Cap Gushing Oil Fears

Mar 9, 2026 3 min read

Oftentimes, when the financial markets are hit by bad news, policymakers scramble to calm them. That happened today in response to last night's soaring oil prices (chart). (1) G7 response. To address the market turmoil following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors held an emergency virtual meeting today. The group's primary strategy was to signal

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 8-12

Mar 8, 2026 3 min read

This promises to be a nerve-racking week of developments in the Middle East. In the nine days since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the conflict has embroiled various neighboring countries. Tehran’s moves to effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz are causing sharp spikes in oil and gas prices – and sending economic forecasters back to the drawing board. This evening, Brent crude topped $100 a barrel. As

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: Oil Price Going Straight Up As Strait Of Hormuz Remains Closed

Mar 8, 2026 4 min read paid

This evening, the prices of a barrel of Brent and WTI crude oil are up about $15 to $107. The price of gold is falling because the dollar's foreign exchange value is rising. The 10-year bond yield is up to 4.195%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down by more than 1.7%. The Nikkei is down 4.5%. This chaos in the financial

Ed Yardeni

Straitjacket: Iran's Chaos War Strategy

Mar 5, 2026 4 min read

On Tuesday, we warned: "We've been expecting a pullback due to excessive bullish sentiment, but now we expect a 10% correction from the high. It's hard to imagine that the IRGC won't use drones and speed boats to maintain their effective blockade of the Strait. If they are successful in doing so, the correction could be closer to 15%." When the war

Ed Yardeni

Dire Strait Versus Home On The Range

Mar 4, 2026 4 min read

Oil prices stabilized today, so stock prices rose. We expected a pullback in the S&P 500 in early 2026. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% from its record high of 6987.60 on January 27 through Wednesday's close. It was up 0.77% today. Is the pullback over? If so, that's quite remarkable, suggesting investors believe Iran has lost the war and

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Another Regime Alteration

Mar 4, 2026 1 min read paid

Saturday’s military attack on Iran by the US and Israel that killed Iran’s leader and 40 top officials is likely to push oil prices higher this week. However, in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire. In any event, the attack also incapacitated Iran’s navy, so the threat of a blocked Strait of Hormuz has been greatly reduced. This is

Ed Yardeni

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