Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 2)

Is AI Useless?

Oct 26, 2026 5 min read paid

I. AI's Toxic Financial Trifecta Recent AI jitters have been fueled by a potentially toxic trifecta of financial constraints: elevated borrowing costs, uncertain investment returns, and concerns about whether sufficient capital exists to finance everyone's ambitious AI spending plans. Consider the following: (1) Elevated borrowing costs. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near the upper end of its "old normal" range of 4.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US SECTORS CALL: Communication Services, Materials & Energy

Oct 25, 2026 5 min read paid

Investors spent the week worrying about an AI bubble. The S&P 500 slipped by 0.5%, led by a 6.2% drop in Communication Services (MW), which was the worst-performing S&P 500 sector (table). Yet, Information Technology fell just 0.3%. Energy (OW) led the winning sectors with a 1.6% gain, followed by Health Care (OW), up 1.5%. Bubbles inflate valuation multiples. This

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Bond Yields Ease

Oct 25, 2026 4 min read paid

Bond yields eased in most major markets last week, but France was the glaring exception. In stocks, the global AI selloff kept hitting the equities markets that had gained the most this year, putting the US back ahead of the All Country World ex-US ytd. That supports our downgrade last week of Go Global to market weight, though the fundamental case for overseas stocks remains strong. Here's

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 26-30

Oct 24, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 fell 0.5% last week, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.7%, both posting second straight weekly losses. The Nasdaq’s 2.9% slide on Thursday was its biggest one-day drop since June, as concerns flared over the cost and availability of financial capital for AI investment. The price of WTI crude topped $100 a barrel amid US-Iran conflict concerns, while the 10-year

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKETS CALL: Still Proceeding Cautiously

Oct 24, 2026 4 min read

On September 15, we advised investors to proceed with caution. We pushed out our 8,400 S&P 500 target from year-end 2026 to mid-2027 and set 7,900 as our new year-end target. On October 14, we reiterated our caution. Sure enough, the stock market has been turbulent since mid-September, with AI-related stocks falling sharply. We are seeing some buying opportunities, but better

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

AI Credit Crunch?

Oct 22, 2026 5 min read paid

I. AI Jitters Investors have worried that AI companies are spending too much on data centers. These companies' once ample free cash flows have turned negative, forcing them to borrow. Concerns have mounted that they are driving up financing costs and won't generate sufficient returns to justify their huge investments. Now, another concern is moving to the forefront: Does enough capital even exist to finance everyone'

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Irrational Exuberance In S&P 500 FEMO?

Oct 21, 2026 5 min read paid

Are analysts' earnings expectations for the S&P 500 irrationally exuberant? So far this year, FEMO (fabulous earnings momentum, as measured by actual earnings per share) has been soaring, while FOMO (fear of missing out, as reflected in P/E multiples) has been mostly retreating. Much of that earnings optimism is concentrated in the S&P 500 Information Technology sector, particularly the Semiconductors industry, where the AI

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Question For The Fed: Where Is Waldo?

Oct 21, 2026 1 min read paid

The risks to the Fed’s dual mandate are constantly changing. Its attempt to hit its inflation target is complicated by price pressures beyond the control of interest rates, and its attempt to hit on a federal funds rate that neither over-stimulates nor over-restricts economic growth is complicated by the elusive nature of this neutral rate. Today, Elias and Ed examine the forces with bearing on the Fed’

Ed Yardeni

What Will Warsh Do?

Oct 20, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The Fed: To Hike or Not To Hike? The Federal Reserve announces its next interest-rate decision on Wednesday, October 28. According to CME FedWatch, the federal funds futures market assigns an 84% probability to a pause. The market expects a 25bps hike in December and roughly 50bps of tightening over the next six months (chart). The two-year Treasury yield remains roughly 90bps above the federal funds rate,

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

FOMO's Rollercoaster Versus FEMO's Steady Climb

Oct 19, 2026 5 min read paid

I. FOMO vs FEMO Forecasting the stock market is easy! Just multiply the P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) by E (earnings per share) to get P (the stock price index). The hard part, of course, is getting the P/E and E right. We call the P/E component FOMO (fear of missing out) and the E component FEMO (fabulous earnings momentum). This year, investors have been on a

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US SECTORS CALL: Tech Wrecked, Health Care & Staples Rally

Oct 18, 2026 4 min read paid

The S&P 500 fell 2.0% this week, and Information Technology (MW) took the biggest hit. The sector fell 6.4%, the worst of the 11 sectors (chart). The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell 11.8%. Credit worries spread to AI infrastructure. CoreWeave fell 25% last week. Its worst day was Wednesday, when it sank 15% as its bond yields soared. It was the IT sector's

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 19 - 23

Oct 18, 2026 4 min read

Last week’s inflation reports came in hot. September’s CPI rose 0.6% m/m, lifting headline inflation from 3.4% y/y in August to 3.7%. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, taking its y/y rate from 2.4% to 2.6%. Both topped expectations. PPI final demand jumped 1.3% m/m. That pushed its y/y rate to 6.3%, the highest since

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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