Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 3)

Booming AI Imports Depressing US GDP, Though Not Final Sales

Jul 7, 2026 4 min read paid

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates Q2-2026 real GDP growth at just 1.4% (saar). That's because net exports (i.e., exports minus imports) dragged it down by 1.3 ppt. During the quarter, AI-related imports increased sharply, outpacing the large increase in US exports of crude oil and petroleum products. The picture is brighter below the headline number. Real final sales to private

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Rotation Or Correction Ahead In Response To Earnings Season?

Jul 6, 2026 4 min read paid

The Q2-2026 earnings reporting season begins next week. The major banks will report at the end of next week. We expect they will beat expectations by reducing their bad-loan provisions. In addition, loan demand has been growing faster in recent weeks, and the IPO calendar has been busy. The big risk up ahead is that technology companies, especially the hyperscalers, won't beat analysts' overly optimistic

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 6-10

Jul 5, 2026 3 min read

The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,483.23, up 1.8% on the week, while the Nasdaq rose 2.1%. Memory chip stocks pulled back sharply last week, cooling off the parabolic run that followed Micron's blowout June 24 earnings report (chart). Shares surged 17% the next day to a new all-time high of $1,255.00, then closed Thursday at $975.56, down

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: AI Trade Depresses EM Trade

Jul 5, 2026 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: A Bubble In Bubbles?

Jul 4, 2026 6 min read

The S&P 500 rose 9.3% ytd through July 2. Can it rise another 10.2% over the rest of this year to achieve our S&P 500 target of 8250? We still think so. Consider the following: (1) FOMO vs FEMO. Is it time to underweight the S&P 500 Information Technology sector? It is if you believe the AI trade is a bubble about

Ed Yardeni

God Bless America!

Jul 2, 2026 6 min read

The United States of America has thrived for 250 years. There have been setbacks along the way. But they were overcome. The Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776 set the stage for Americans to prosper by declaring: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty

Ed Yardeni

Warsh's Sintra Serenade To The Bond Vigilantes

Jul 1, 2026 4 min read paid

The temperature was 81 degrees in Sintra, Portugal, today. Tomorrow it will be 101 degrees. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke on a panel in Sintra today. He was cool as a cucumber. This was his second public appearance since his first press conference as the new Fed chair on June 17. Back then, he was surprisingly hawkish, stressing that he and his colleagues on the FOMC are committed to restoring

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Update On The ‘G-Shaped’ Versus ‘K-Shaped’ Economy Debate

Jul 1, 2026 1 min read paid

Consumer spending has been remarkably resilient, growing for the past two years faster than consumers’ disposable incomes have and depressing their saving rate. Current trends point to a negative saving rate by 2030. But that’s nothing to worry about, explain Ed and Elias. What we have isn’t a “K-shaped” economy, with the affluent spending briskly and everyone else struggling to make ends meet, as many assume. It’

Ed Yardeni

A Well-Balanced US Labor Market

Jun 30, 2026 4 min read paid

The stock prices of ADP, Paychex, and ManpowerGroup sold off sharply last year as hiring cooled. Employers froze their headcounts as they assessed the impacts of Trump's tariffs and of AI technologies on their businesses (chart). On May 8, we wrote that the labor market was showing early signs of improvement and that employment-related stocks may have bottomed. So far, so good. Employers now seem to have

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Warsh Taking Hawkish Path to Lower Interest Rates

Jun 29, 2026 4 min read paid

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has often said that the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee should talk publicly less often. He wants the Fed to follow the financial markets rather than the other way around. Yet, two weeks after his first press conference as Fed chair on Wednesday, June 17, he is scheduled to appear on a policy panel on Wednesday, July 1, at the annual ECB Forum on

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: War & Peace

Jun 28, 2026 4 min read paid

During the Napoleonic Wars, British financier Nathan Mayer Rothschild allegedly said: "Buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets." This has become a legendary contrarian investing maxim. It suggests you should buy stocks when war or panic causes markets to plummet ("cannons"), and sell to lock in profits when peace returns and market euphoria sets in ("trumpets"). The maxim seems

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 29 - July 3

Jun 28, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,354.02, down 2.0% on the week, while the Nasdaq fell 4.5%. Apple and Microsoft raised their consumer product prices on Thursday, citing memory and storage chip costs that have more than doubled since last fall and are expected to double again by late 2027. The driver is demand for DRAM and NAND from AI data centers. Memory chip

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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