Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 3)

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Downgrading 'Go Global' To Market Weight

Oct 18, 2026 4 min read paid

We are downgrading the “Go Global” portfolio strategy from overweight to market weight and raising “Stay Home” (in the US) from underweight to market weight. Overseas earnings remain impressive, but the rallies in emerging market economies’ stock markets have been led by just a handful of AI-related stocks. Last week's rout in South Korea showed how vulnerable such concentration leaves these stock markets. Additionally, European economies look

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Yes, AI Is Too Big To Fail

Oct 17, 2026 5 min read

I. Bonds We've all been suffering from AI fatigue for a while. The daily news about it has been head-spinning. We've been warned that AI is a bubble that will burst, just as the late-1990s tech bubble led to the Tech Wreck in the early 2000s. Analogies to the credit excesses of the Great Financial Crisis have also been proffered. Last week's

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

AI Scare Raises Growth Fears and Lowers Bond Yields

Oct 15, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Treasury Yields US Treasury yields fell sharply today, extending Wednesday's retreat from intraday highs. The 10-year yield dropped 9bps to 5.10%, while the 30-year fell 10bps to 5.43% (chart). Even the 2-year yield declined slightly to 4.77% (chart). Remarkably, this broad-based decline occurred despite two hotter-than-expected inflation reports. Normally, such surprises would push Treasury yields higher as investors

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Continue To Proceed With Caution

Oct 14, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Risk Off Is Back On September 15, we advised our readers to "Proceed With Caution." We postponed our year-end S&P 500 target of 8,400 to mid-2027. Our concern isn't earnings; it's stock valuations. We remain bullish on the economy and earnings, expecting no recession through the end of the decade in 2029. Accordingly, we haven’t lowered our

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Is FEMO Too Concentrated?

Oct 13, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Stocks: Happy Fourth Anniversary! Yesterday marked the fourth anniversary of the stock market bull run. The S&P 500 is up 118.3% since it began. The bull market has survived the pandemic, global supply-chain disruptions, rebounding inflation, two oil price shocks, a significant round of Fed rate hikes, soaring bond yields, a financial crisis, Trump's tariffs, and two wars. It has also survived concerns

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Sizing Up US Debt

Oct 12, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Adding It Up The bond market had a good day today: It was closed for Columbus Day. We think that yields have risen high enough to attract buyers. If so, then yields should stabilize around current levels. Plenty could still go wrong, making bond yields even more attractive. The war in the Middle East is likely to heat up again after the midterm elections, sending oil prices higher. On

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

S&P 500 SECTORS CALL: More Green On The Screen

Oct 11, 2026 4 min read paid

Bond yields edged down last week. As a result, the S&P 500 edged up, led by interest-rate-sensitive sectors. The AI-related sectors Industrials (-0.4%) and Information Technology (-0.3%) edged down and in fact were the only down sectors last week. The big interest-rate-sensitive gainers were Consumer Staples (4.0%), Utilities (3.9%), Consumer Discretionary (3.1%), and Financials (2.3%). The year&

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 12-16

Oct 11, 2026 4 min read

Last week was relatively quiet on the economic data front, but the indicators released pointed to continued economic strength. ADP weekly payroll gains increased for the fifth consecutive week, reaching a three-month high, while jobless claims fell to multi-year lows. The ISM NM-PMI remained solid at 54.9 in September, though its prices paid component jumped to 74.0, the highest since July 2022. Redbook same-store

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: French Toast & Brazilian Bossa Nova

Oct 10, 2026 4 min read

I. Bonds The global bond market remains jittery, though yields may be starting to stabilize after their rout in recent months (chart). Nevertheless, geopolitical turbulence may still buffet them. Yields have risen for an assortment of reasons, from better-than-expected economic growth (US) to fiscal instability concerns (France). Brazil and China are the only major countries showing declines in bond yields so far this year (chart). Bond yields have

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKETS CALL: Is The 10-Year Bond Yield Back To The Old Normal?

Oct 10, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Bonds The Economist just rang the all-clear siren for the bond market (chart). It is safe to buy bonds now that the front cover of the October 10 magazine is titled "Will bonds blow up?" This and other national magazines’ cover stories often have been great contrary indicators. It’s the “front-page curse” (once magazines put in the time it takes them to produce a

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Lots Of FEMO In Q3's Earnings Reporting Season

Oct 8, 2026 4 min read paid

I. FEMO in Q3 We have spent much of the past few months marveling at Corporate America's Fabulous Earnings Momentum (FEMO). S&P 500 earnings per share growth approached 30% y/y in Q1 and accelerated to more than 50% in Q2, although unusually large mark-to-market investment gains boosted both figures. Even excluding those gains, earnings grew roughly 20% and 25%, respectively. Q2 also marked

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

The Bond Yield Spectrum

Oct 7, 2026 5 min read paid

I. From The Good To The Bad To The Ugly The spectrum of explanations for the rise in bond yields worldwide includes relatively benign ones to downright dangerous ones (chart). On the good side of the spectrum, better-than-expected economic growth has driven US bond yields up to levels that are back to normal. On the ugly side, soaring bond yields in France are signaling a looming debt crisis.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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