The major stock market indexes have gone nowhere since early August. On the surface, the seas have been calm. Underneath, plenty of turbulence has been occurring. Most of the volatility has been within sectors.
In mid-September, we warned our readers to proceed with caution through the midterm elections. We expected and are now seeing buying opportunities. The S&P 500 closed at 7,561.67 on Friday. It has been fluctuating around 7,600 since August 3. We think it is set for another rally that should take it up to 7,900 by the end of this year.
I. Stock Market Performance
The S&P 500 is down just 0.5% since August 3, while the equal-weight version of the index is up 1.8% (chart). The MAGS ETF is up 0.4%, while the XMAGS ETF is up 1.2%. The Nasdaq is down 3.0%. Only the Russell 2000 has moved much, falling 6.4%.
The sectors underneath the S&P 500 have been choppier (chart). Health Care has gained 16.4% since August 3, and Consumer Staples is up 10.8%. Communication Services is down 11.3%, and Industrials is down 7.9%. Information Technology, at the center of the AI selloff, is down 3.5%.
