Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: We Still Expect a 2026 Rate Hike

Jul 20, 2026 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our July 20, 2026 Morning Briefing for institutional investors. Right before the release of the June CPI report, Fed Governor Christopher Waller used notably hawkish rhetoric in his latest public address. He stated that if June’s core CPI was hot, the FOMC would need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term. That prompted traders to increase their bets that the FOMC might

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US SECTORS: Rotations and Corrections

Jul 19, 2026 4 min read Premium Member tier

The S&P 500 is 2.0% below its June 2 all-time high. It has been hovering around 7,500 since May 14. Beneath that calm, momentum stocks have been hard hit. The semiconductor index (SOXX) is down 20.3% from its June 22 peak. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), which started trading on April 2 around $28 and soared 208% to $80.7 on June 22, is

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Downgrading Emerging Markets To Market Weight

Jul 19, 2026 4 min read paid

We are downgrading emerging markets to market weight, not because the Go Global thesis is broken but because four separate short-term headwinds are converging at once: (1) The price of oil is back above $80 a barrel as the IRGC keeps the Strait of Hormuz contested. (2) The FOMC is hawkish. With inflation still sticky and a solid labor market, financial markets are currently pricing in one rate hike

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Hanging Out At 7,500 And 4.50%

Jul 18, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 first hit 7,500 on May 14 and has remained stuck around that level. The index continues to cruise along its 50-day moving average. A 6.0% drop would send it back to its 200-day moving average (chart). We have seen this movie before, recently, during late 2024 into early 2025 and again during late 2025 into early 2026. Both saw similar bouts

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 20-24

Jul 18, 2026 3 min read

The week ahead is light on economic data. The entire week falls inside the Fed's blackout period ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, so there's no Fedspeak to parse before the committee revisits the current 3.50%-3.75% funds rate range. Odds are that the committee's statement will remain hawkish but postpone any rate hiking. On the other hand, the earnings

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US Consumers Singing, "Ain't No Stoppin' Us Now!

Jul 16, 2026 4 min read paid

"Ain't No Stoppin' Us Now" is a 1979 disco song performed by R&B duo McFadden & Whitehead. American consumers agree. For a long time now, their doubters warned that a low savings rate, flatlining real disposable income, rising consumer debt, and mounting affordability challenges would force households to retrench. Instead, they continue to do what they do best, namely shop! A well-balanced

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Too Much Complacency?

Jul 15, 2026 5 min read paid

Our Roaring 2020s thesis holds that the demand side of real GDP remains supported by resilient consumer spending and robust business investment. On the supply side, tech-led productivity is boosting real GDP, while keeping a lid on inflation. Now that the economy has proven its mettle over the first seven years of the decade, it should continue to do so over the remaining three years of the Roaring 2020s.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Warsh’s Tasks

Jul 15, 2026 1 min read paid

The AI boom is fueling the Fed’s hawkishness, as Ed and Elias agree it should, since it’s also fueling inflation currently. Yet Fed Chair Warsh asserted at his confirmation hearing that AI is a disinflationary force. They agree with that as well: It is disinflationary over the long term, which is the crux of our Roaring 2020s economic thesis; but paradoxically, AI is escalating inflation now as rapid

Ed Yardeni

A Refreshingly Cool CPI Inflation Report Must Please Warsh

Jul 14, 2026 4 min read paid

Will the FOMC raise the federal funds rate (FFR) at its July 28-29 meeting? Foggetaboutit! Today's CPI inflation report was surprisingly subdued across the board. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2.0% target, so the FOMC is likely to maintain its tightening stance, which was adopted in June. However, after the latest inflation report, there is no rush for the FOMC to act, contrary to

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Captain America: Guardian Of The Strait!

Jul 13, 2026 4 min read paid

MOU is DOA. The memorandum of (mis)understanding between the US and Iran is dead on arrival. Act II of the latest Gulf War is underway after a brief interlude. President Donald Trump declared today that the United States will be known as "THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT." He announced that the US is reinstating its naval blockade on Iran and plans to enforce a 20% fee

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: War & Peace & War

Jul 12, 2026 4 min read paid

In our March 4, 2026 QuickTakes, we wrote that the war between the US and Iran might last longer than widely expected. We suggested that any peace deal with Iran's government would effectively be vetoed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps simply by their threatening to attack ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. "These terrorists are likely to be hard to eradicate with just air power,

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Great Expectations

Jul 12, 2026 5 min read paid

The S&P 500 has been meandering around 7,500 since mid-May. Earnings should continue to drive the stock market higher. However, investors may be fretting that expectations for the upcoming earnings reporting season are so high that if they aren't exceeded, the market might swoon again in July as it did in June. If so, dip buyers are likely to limit the downside. We still

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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