Ed Yardeni

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Interest Rates Are Troubling

Sep 26, 2026 4 min read

I. Global Economy The global economy has been surprisingly resilient so far this year. There were dips earlier this year, when the Middle East war was in full swing; but in recent months, global industrial production and exports have rebounded to their record highs from before the war (chart). The All Country World MSCI forward revenues per share has continued to soar to record highs this year (chart). The All

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKETS CALL: Invasion Of The Bond Vigilante Algorithms

Sep 26, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Credit Last week's events confirm our "Proceed With Caution" call in September 15's QuickTakes. The main event was the jump in the 10-year US Treasury yield above 5.00% to an intraday high of 5.22% on Friday (chart). At the end of the day, it closed lower, at 5.18%, after news that Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Baby Boom Briefing

Sep 24, 2026 5 min read paid

Consumer spending resilience increasingly has become a balance-sheet story rather than an income-statement story. The personal saving rate has been falling since January 2024 as consumer outlays have outpaced disposable personal income (chart). Many economists believe that this is unsustainable. Not us. We think that the saving rate will turn negative by the end of the decade as retiring Baby Boomers finance their spending with their sizeable net

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Booming Economy Pushes Bond Yields Higher

Sep 23, 2026 4 min read paid

Bond yields have risen for many reasons this year (chart). The war in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine have pushed up crude oil and refined petroleum product prices. Rising interest rates in Japan are forcing hedge funds to unwind their carry trades. They are paying back their yen loans by selling the higher-yielding government bonds of the US and other countries that they purchased

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: All About The Fed, The Economy & Inflation

Sep 23, 2026 1 min read paid

In a scant three months, FOMC members moved from a unanimous hold to a unanimous hike, raising the federal funds rate by 25bps and suggesting more of the same to come. President Trump, preferring rates be slashed, blamed everyone on the FOMC except Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Today, Ed and Elias examine what motivated the September decision and Warsh’s role in it. He had argued all summer that conditions

Ed Yardeni

The Silver Tsunami In A Booming Economy

Sep 22, 2026 5 min read paid

I. The Silver Tsunami The “silver tsunami” refers to the large wave of Baby Boomers moving into retirement and the rise in the number of older households. That demographic shift is increasingly reshaping America’s consumer economy, as older households account for a growing share of income and spending power. The scale of that shift becomes clearer when viewed against the broader expansion of the household sector. The US had

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Tech Is Top Dog Again As Investors Conclude It Is Cheap

Sep 21, 2026 4 min read paid

There was lots worrying investors last week, and there still is. But the stock market has a habit of climbing a wall of worry. It seems to be doing so now. Investors have been watching analysts raising their earnings expectations faster than stock prices have been rising (chart). As a result, stocks have gotten cheaper, assuming that analysts' exuberant earnings expectations are rational. Investors may be coming around, gaining

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Financials, Communication Services & Industrials

Sep 20, 2026 5 min read paid

Two shocks hit the stock market last week. On Monday, the heads of the major AI labs called for slowing the development of frontier models, and chip stocks sold off hard. On Wednesday, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023, and the updated Dot Plot points to one more this year. The S&P 500 fell

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Stocks Weathering Storm In Bonds

Sep 20, 2026 4 min read paid

Central banks in the US, Europe, and Japan all raised their policy rates over the last two weeks. Bond yields are rising nearly everywhere. Neither development has broken the global stock bull market, as earnings forecasts keep getting marked up. The Stay Home and Go Global investment strategies have been tracking each other fairly closely in recent months, with limited dispersion between the two. The divergence instead has been across

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 21 - 25

Sep 20, 2026 4 min read

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps on Wednesday, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The vote was unanimous. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cited stronger growth, insufficient progress on inflation, and rising geopolitical risk as reasons for the move. The Fed's updated projections show inflation not returning fully to target until 2029, while growth and employment forecasts improved. Global bond yields

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Investors Curbing Their Enthusiasm As Less FOMO Offsets More FEMO

Sep 19, 2026 5 min read

I. Curbing Our Enthusiasm Last week on Tuesday, we pushed our 8,400 year-end target for the S&P 500 to mid-2027. Our new year-end target is 7,900. We remain confident in the resilience of both the economy and S&P 500 companies’ earnings per share (EPS). On the other hand, we think recent developments may weigh on their stocks’ valuation multiples for the

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Global Bond Rout Made In Japan?

Sep 17, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Yen-Carry Trade Unwinding? The “yen‑carry trade” has been a key feature of global financial markets since roughly 2012. It rested on two pillars: ultra-low Japanese interest rates and either a weak or relatively stable yen. Hedge funds could borrow funds cheaply in yen, convert the proceeds to other currencies, and buy government bonds in those currencies. The beauty of this trade is that it increased downward

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Page 1 of 158