Ed Yardeni

Productivity Booms As Labor Market Shows Signs Of Revival

May 7, 2026 4 min read paid

When the labor market sneezes, ADP, Paychex, and ManpowerGroup catch colds. The stock prices of all three sold off sharply as hiring cooled starting early last year (chart). But on balance, the latest batch of labor market data suggests that employment conditions may be improving, and employment-related stocks may be bottoming (chart). We disagree with the widely-held notion that AI is a net job killer. In our opinion, AI will

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Earnings-Led Meltup

May 6, 2026 4 min read paid

We have nothing to fear but nothing to fear. Stock investors have been fearless since the S&P 500 fell to the year's low on March 30, when war-related fears peaked. The index has soared 16.1% since then to a new record high. Yesterday, we explained our Buzz Lightyear Theory (BLT) of the stock market. Investors have concluded that, thanks to AI, demand for "compute&

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Consumers Still Doing What They Do Best

May 6, 2026 1 min read paid

Consumer spending is the single biggest driver of US GDP growth, and its remarkable resilience despite lackluster income growth contributes mightily to the resilience of the US economy broadly. Today, Ed and Elias explain why consumer spending has seemed to defy economic gravity and why it should continue to do so. The short answer: our “gen-shaped economy,” shaped by generational dynamics as the Baby Boomers move through life’s phases.

Ed Yardeni

Artificial Intelligence: To Infinity & Beyond!

May 5, 2026 4 min read paid

Before the Age of AI, economists were taught that there are only three factors of production, namely, Land, Labor, and Capital. The job of economists is to optimize the allocation of these scarce resources to maximize output (i.e., real GDP). Now, economists should recognize that there is a fourth factor of production, namely, Data. This resource is unlimited. But until AI, it wasn't very useful because it

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Bond Yields Heating Up

May 4, 2026 4 min read paid

Today, the US launched Project Freedom, deploying 15,000 service members and over 100 aircraft to escort stranded commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The first two US-flagged merchant tankers were successfully escorted this morning. However, Iran struck the UAE's Fujairah energy hub and a UAE oil tanker and damaged residential areas in Oman. US forces destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted multiple missiles and drones.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

MARKET CALL: Up, Up & Away

May 3, 2026 5 min read

The stock market balloon is climbing higher, and the burners are firing. It isn't all hot air that is lifting stock prices. It's also earnings revisions, which are increasing for 2026 and 2027. Growth stocks and the Magnificent-7 have reasserted leadership over the past month. Small caps and the Russell 2000 are at fresh record highs too. Investor sentiment remains surprisingly lackluster, leaving plenty of upside

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 4-8

May 3, 2026 4 min read

The week ahead is chock-full of labor market indicators. In addition, nine Talking Fed Heads on the Federal Open Mouth Committee are on the speaking circuit, with Williams, Bowman, and Goolsbee coming up twice. Despite the elevated oil prices, the stock market continues to levitate to new highs. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude hit $110.10 intraweek and closed on Friday at $102.48. Brent

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

The Roaring 2020s Express Train

Apr 30, 2026 5 min read

Why is the stock market continuing to make new highs? It's doing so because corporate earnings are doing the same, as the economy continues to speed along without stopping for a recession. The latest batch of data certainly drove the stock market higher today, confirming that we are still riding the rails on the Roaring 2020s Express. Nothing seems to stop or derail this train. (1) GDP. The

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

No More Mr. Nice Guy

Apr 29, 2026 4 min read paid

We will miss Jerome Powell's chairmanship of the Fed. He is a nice guy. He did the best that he could as Fed chair from February 5, 2018, through May 15, 2026, when his term as chair expires. Nevertheless, he said he intends to remain a Fed governor for now. He can do so until his term on the Board of Governors expires on January 31, 2028. President

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: The Oil Shock & Inflation

Apr 29, 2026 1 min read paid

Why hasn’t the price of Brent crude oil gone through the roof despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 28? Ed and Elias explain the anomalous price action. … Also: Why US oil producers aren’t pumped enough by higher energy prices to save the day. … And: How the energy supply crisis is likely to feed into inflation, not just via higher gasoline and fuel prices but

Ed Yardeni

Powell's Swan Song

Apr 28, 2026 4 min read paid

Tomorrow at 2:30 p.m., Jerome Powell will sing his swan song. That will be his last press conference after the latest FOMC meeting. The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to confirm the nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Powell tomorrow. The Senate could move to a final vote shortly thereafter. Powell will likely explain why the FOMC is unlikely to lower the federal funds rate any time soon.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

GLOBAL CALL: Why Are Stock Prices Rising Around The World?

Apr 27, 2026 3 min read paid

Stock markets around the world sold off sharply after the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. Despite the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, global stock prices have rebounded since the end of March. That is surprising, given that many countries' economies are vulnerable to stagflation and even recessions if oil prices remain elevated and oil shortages occur. Even more surprising is that

Ed Yardeni

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