Ed Yardeni

Crib Notes For Warsh & Co. On The Fed's Dual Mandate

Jun 17, 2026 5 min read paid

During the final four months of 2025, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) three times by a total of 75bps. The cuts were justified for two reasons: Inflation was approaching the Fed's 2.0% target, and the labor market was weakening. So the FFR was deemed to be too restrictive, i.e., above the "neutral" FFR. Under the Fed's dual mandate, the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Why Is The US More Exuberant Than China?

Jun 16, 2026 4 min read paid

China has accomplished a great deal over the past few decades, transforming from a poor, insular, and rural economy to the world's second-largest economy. Its transformation has been hailed as an economic miracle. Yet this miracle hasn't been reflected in China's stock market. The China MSCI stock price index has been flatlining since the end of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2010.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Peace Dividend Should Revive 'Go Global'

Jun 14, 2026 4 min read paid

The past week was a win for our "Go Global" pivot at the end of last year, as foreign equity markets mostly outperformed the "Stay Home" alternative, i.e., the US stock market. Most of the move came in anticipation of lower oil prices on a possible deal between the US and Iran to end their war. This evening, both sides confirmed that a memorandum of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 15-19

Jun 13, 2026 3 min read

The week ahead is dominated by the Fed. Kevin Warsh delivers his first press conference as Fed chair on Wednesday, right after the FOMC releases its policy statement and its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes the Dot Plot showing meeting participants’ forecasts for the federal funds rate. We expect the Fed to abandon its easing bias and pivot toward a tightening bias. The ECB raised its official rate

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Roaring 2020s Rockets To Mars & Beyond

Jun 13, 2026 4 min read

"Space: the final frontier. These are the voyages of the starship Enterprise. Its five-year mission: to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to boldly go where no man has gone before!" That's the introduction to Star Trek, the long-running TV series. On Friday, Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX, went where no man has gone before. He became

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Bull Jumping In Crete

Jun 11, 2026 4 min read paid

Greetings from Greece. My colleagues, Elias and Toby, have been writing the QTs this week while my wife and I are vacationing in Crete and Santorini. The weather, food, and people are great. In Crete, we visited the ruins of the Palace at Knossos. It was the ceremonial and political center of the Minoan civilization and culture that thrived during the Bronze Age. We learned that for fun, Minoans enjoyed

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Inflation & Employment Indicators Are Mixed As Fed Meets

Jun 10, 2026 4 min read paid

The latest batch of inflation and employment indicators suggests that the FOMC might adopt a neutral policy stance at next week's meeting rather than a tightening one as we have been expecting. That seemed to be the initial reaction in the US Treasury market, as 2- and 10-year yields edged lower on today's cooler-than-expected core CPI inflation news. We are sticking with our

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST

Jun 10, 2026

🔒Exclusive Early Access for Paid Members: Below, you'll find Dr. Ed's latest webcast. Paid members can enjoy immediate access to the video. This content will become available to the public at a later date—don't miss out on early insights, consider upgrading today!

Ed Yardeni

Booming Number Of Retiring Boomers Supports Consumer Spending & Depresses Saving

Jun 9, 2026 4 min read paid

The Doomsayers have long warned about one specific vulnerability of the US economy, i.e., the sustainability of consumer spending growth. Since July 2024, real consumer spending has outpaced real disposable income growth on a y/y basis for 22 consecutive months. Spending is up 4.1% over that period, while disposable income rose just 1.1%. The widening gap has been filled by declining personal savings. The personal savings

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

MATERIALS: Small Weight, Big Growth

Jun 8, 2026 4 min read paid

We recommend overweighting the S&P 500 Materials sector. The sector accounts for just 1.9% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, so an overweight is cheap to implement, the same logic we applied to our Energy sector recommendation on April 20. S&P 500 Materials is up 9.9% ytd, fifth behind Energy, Information Technology, Industrials, and Real Estate. The stock price index

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: 'Go Global' Getting Fried By Rising Fed Rate Hike Expectations

Jun 7, 2026 4 min read paid

Hot US data are pulling capital flows back home. The US share of the All Country World (ACW) MSCI is at 63.7%, well off the early-2025 peak of 67.4% but firming again. Europe’s share has slipped to 13.8% and Japan’s to 5.0% (chart). Emerging Markets’ share, at 12.3%, is near its cycle high. The ratio of the US MSCI to the ACW

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: June Swoon!