Ed Yardeni

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

May 27, 2026 5 min read paid

The bull case for the stock market remains intact. The S&P 500 rose to yet another record high today. The economy and the labor market remain resilient. Consumers are spending. The AI boom is boosting capital spending. Corporate earnings are soaring on strong revenues growth and higher profit margins. The odds of a recession in 2026 fell to 19% today, the lowest reading of the year (chart). Stock

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

WEEKLY WEBCAST: On China’s Lagging Stock Market & An AI Chokepoint

May 27, 2026 1 min read paid

Investors in China’s stock market ran for the exits at news that regulators would be cracking down on stocks driven by AI euphoria versus earnings potential. Fanning the fear, William explains, were the implications that China’s President Xi isn’t the capitalist proponent of free markets he claims to be. … Also: Toby discusses the China MSCI’s extremely low valuation for profitable companies. While that sounds enticing, share

Ed Yardeni

Retiring Baby Boomers & The G-Shaped Economy

May 26, 2026 5 min read paid

Many economists continue to question the resilience of consumer spending in the US. The naysayers don't believe it's sustainable and continue to expect significant consumer retrenchment. They claim that the economy is "K-shaped," with the wealthiest 10% of households accounting for 50% of all retail spending. Those widely quoted numbers are from Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi. They make no sense to

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: US-Iran Deal Would Boost Go Global Investment Strategy

May 25, 2026 5 min read paid

On Sunday night, Reuters reported that oil prices slipped to a two-week low as US-Iran talks seemed to be moving closer to a peace deal. Then again, the news service also reported that President Donald Trump is in no rush to make a deal and that the US will continue to blockade Iran. If so, then Iran will continue to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, Japan's Nikkei

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: Another Concentrated Sector

May 24, 2026 3 min read paid

We recommend a market-weight position in the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector. At first glance, the sector looks strong. Its stock price index is near a record high, forward earnings is rising, and the forward P/E has held in the mid-20s (chart). The surface-level fundamentals are attractive. Look closer, and the strength narrows. Consumer Discretionary is up just 2.3% ytd, ninth among the 11 S&

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: FOMO vs FEMO (Fabulous Earnings Momentum)

May 24, 2026 5 min read paid

The stock market has had an exuberant stretch since the S&P 500 bottomed on March 30. The index is up 17.8% since then through Friday, after hitting a record high on May 14. The DJIA rose to a record high this past Friday. The bears say the exuberance is irrational, driven by lots of excitement about AI. We say it is rational, based on our Buzz Lightyear

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 25-29

May 24, 2026 3 min read

The US financial markets are closed on Monday for Memorial Day, and the holiday-shortened week is light on economic data releases. On Thursday, the second estimate of Q1-2026 GDP will be reported alongside April's core PCED, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Eight Fed officials speak over the week. With little fresh data to help investors gauge whether the FOMC is turning more hawkish, they’ll be

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Mindboggling: Quantum Computing + AI + Resilient Economy

May 21, 2026 4 min read

The Department of Commerce signed letters of intent to invest $2 billion in federal incentives under the CHIPS and Science Act across nine quantum computing and hardware companies. Rather than issuing traditional research grants, the Trump administration is taking minority equity stakes in these companies in exchange for the capital, continuing a broader policy shift toward direct government ownership in strategically critical sectors (similar to previous moves with Intel and

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Fed Minutes Should Please Bond Vigilantes

May 20, 2026 4 min read paid

On Monday, we made a few headlines in the financial press with our out-of-consensus prediction that the FOMC would adopt a tightening bias at the June meeting of the Fed's policymaking committee. That would be followed by a 25-bps hike in the federal funds rate (FFR) at the July FOMC meeting. Today, the minutes of the April FOMC meeting showed that the vote to maintain an easing bias

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Bond Vigilantes Welcome New Fed Chair Warsh With Loud Bronx Cheer

May 20, 2026 1 min read paid

The financial markets expect interest rates to remain higher for longer, notwithstanding President Trump's demands that Kevin Warsh, newly instated as Fed chief, get rates down. But the macroeconomic backdrop no longer supports an easing bias, let alone a rate cut. Paradoxically, Elias and Ed explain, a more hawkish Warsh than investors expect would actually work in Trump's favor via its downward effect on long-term Treasury

Ed Yardeni

Don't Freak Out About The Bond Vigilantes Just Yet

May 19, 2026 4 min read paid

The selloff in the US Treasury bond market continued today. The 30-year yield hit a high of 5.19%, its highest level since July 2007. The 10-year yield surged to 4.69%, its highest since January 2025 (chart). Just as unsettling as these levels is how quickly yields have risen over the past few days. We think that happened in response to last week's hotter-than-expected April PPI as

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Leaders, Laggards & Breadth In The Current Bull Market

May 18, 2026 3 min read

The current bull market didn't start on March 31, 2026. Yet many commentators have noted that the bull market is at risk because it has been so narrow since then. The bull market actually started on October 12, 2022. Since then, most market segments have delivered solid double-digit gains. The problem is that several large-cap technology companies have delivered triple-digit gains, thereby making the double-digit growers appear to

Ed Yardeni

Page 1 of 146