Ed Yardeni

AI Capex Boom Continues to Boost US Economic Growth

Jul 27, 2026 4 min read Premium Member tier

I. On Industrials Investors are suffering from AI fatigue. They've concluded that there is no way to estimate whether all the capital spending on AI infrastructure will generate good ROIs in the coming years. What they do know is that hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent on AI capex in the here and now. That explains why S&P 500 Industrials is the second-best-

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Getting Yin-Yanged By The Latest Gulf War

Jul 26, 2026 4 min read Premium Member tier

The re-escalation of the latest Gulf War pushed the price of Brent crude oil back up to $101.06 on Thursday. It was back down this evening as low as $86.58 after Iran reportedly said it would suspend attacks as long as the US does the same. Last week, rising oil prices were a headwind for the Go Global trade relative to Stay Home, because they fall harder

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Follow The Money

Jul 26, 2026 4 min read paid

The S&P 500 has been holding up around 7,500 as the war in the Middle East escalates. It closed at $7411.98 on Friday, just below its 50-day moving average (chart). Alphabet and Tesla both reported great Q2 revenues on Thursday. Yet both stocks were crushed, down 6.9% and 14.5%, as free cash flow turned negative for both. Investors have decided that AI capital

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: JULY 27 - 31

Jul 26, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,411.98, down 0.6% on the week, while the Nasdaq fell 2.1%. Oil was the dominant story: The price of Brent crude jumped 7% Thursday to settle at $100.69 a barrel, its first close above $100 since May 26, after Yemen's Houthi militants claimed strikes on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea (chart). President

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: MTM & Chips' Profit Margin Distorting S&P 500 Earnings, But FEMO Lives On!

Jul 25, 2026 6 min read paid

I. Stocks Stop the music! S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) have been significantly distorted by huge capital gains on investments by Alphabet and Amazon and a tax-related gain from Meta. Because GAAP accounting rules force companies to record unrealized equity gains and losses directly on the income statement, a small group of tech and venture-heavy mega-caps can create significant noise in the S&

Ed Yardeni
Joe Abbott
Toby Hearst

Apocalypse Now! Or, TACO Now?

Jul 23, 2026 5 min read paid

(1) Geopolitics. President Donald Trump said he is weighing a “massive attack” on Iran. The Pentagon is flooding the Middle East with elite troops, fighter jets, and combat medics. “I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than anything we have ever had before. I am close to making a decision. We are fully prepared for it,” the president told Israel’s Channel 12 on Thursday. The US military on Tuesday

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Choke Points & Other Concerns Causing The Stock Market's Summer Stall

Jul 22, 2026 4 min read paid

At the start of last month, we predicted a June swoon in the S&P 500. Now it's looking more like a summer stall as the index has been marking time around 7,500 since May 14. We still expect the index to reach 8,250 by year-end. A resilient economy and strong earnings remain powerful tailwinds, but these bullish factors are widely recognized. On the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Fed Rate Hike Still On The Table

Jul 22, 2026 1 min read paid

Neither the Fed’s dual mandate nor its official 2% inflation target have changed. But from what Kevin Warsh has said since assuming the role of Fed chief in May, his priority appears to be the inflation side of the dual mandate and his target may be underlying inflation rather the PCED inflation rate. Today, Ed and Elias look at the ramifications of such a potential shift in the Fed’

Ed Yardeni

US Economy Powers On As FIFA Spending & IRS Tax Rebates Fade

Jul 21, 2026 4 min read paid

As confetti and red-and-yellow streamers rained down on the roaring crowd, the final whistle blew, and Spain lifted the World Cup trophy after a thrilling 1:0 victory over Argentina. The games are over. The fans are heading home, and an important economic tailwind is beginning to fade. According to Bank of America, the FIFA World Cup generated roughly $20 billion in economic activity across the United States,

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

DEEP DIVE: We Still Expect a 2026 Rate Hike

Jul 20, 2026 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our July 20, 2026 Morning Briefing for institutional investors. Right before the release of the June CPI report, Fed Governor Christopher Waller used notably hawkish rhetoric in his latest public address. He stated that if June’s core CPI was hot, the FOMC would need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term. That prompted traders to increase their bets that the FOMC might

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US SECTORS: Rotations and Corrections

Jul 19, 2026 4 min read Premium Member tier

The S&P 500 is 2.0% below its June 2 all-time high. It has been hovering around 7,500 since May 14. Beneath that calm, momentum stocks have been hard hit. The semiconductor index (SOXX) is down 20.3% from its June 22 peak. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), which started trading on April 2 around $28 and soared 208% to $80.7 on June 22, is

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Downgrading Emerging Markets To Market Weight

Jul 19, 2026 4 min read paid

We are downgrading emerging markets to market weight, not because the Go Global thesis is broken but because four separate short-term headwinds are converging at once: (1) The price of oil is back above $80 a barrel as the IRGC keeps the Strait of Hormuz contested. (2) The FOMC is hawkish. With inflation still sticky and a solid labor market, financial markets are currently pricing in one rate hike

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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