Ed Yardeni

Fed's Hawks Circling Over Hot US Economy

Sep 16, 2026 5 min read paid

I. The Fed Today marked the conclusion of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The Fed's monetary policy committee delivered a widely anticipated 25bps increase in the federal funds rate (FFR), raising the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Here are five key takeaways from today’s decision: (1) The decision was unanimous. The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the FFR by 25bps, showing unanimous agreement

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Worry List Is Growing More Worrisome

Sep 16, 2026 1 min read paid

We’re still strong believers in our Roaring 2020s scenario, hinging on a productivity boom that strengthens economic growth even as it contains inflation. However, we’ve shaved the subjective odds that we ascribe to that scenario from 80% to 70% and now see a 30% chance that rising geopolitical and other risks could derail it. Today, Ed and Elias update our deepened worry list, detailing the concerning prospects, as

Ed Yardeni

Proceed With Caution

Sep 15, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Lowering S&P 500 Target On Saturday, we lowered the subjective odds of our Roaring 2020s base-case scenario from 80% to 70%. We raised the odds of a bearish outcome from 20% to 30%. Today, we are moving our S&P 500 target of 8,400 for year-end to mid-2027. Our new target for the end of 2026 is 7,900. Our end-of-

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Warsh & Bessent Share A Credibility Problem

Sep 14, 2026 4 min read paid

President Donald Trump has some advice for the Fed. Speaking to reporters at the Irish Open golf tournament today, he said he did not know whether Fed policymakers will raise interest rates at their meeting this week. But he said the US "should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world" even though economic growth is robust and inflation remains sticky above the Fed's 2.

Ed Yardeni

US SECTORS CALL: Energy, Information Technology & Health Care

Sep 13, 2026 5 min read paid

Rising bond yields and oil prices weighed on stocks last week, though a mostly in-line CPI report on Friday sparked a rebound. The S&P 500 still fell 0.8%, with nine of the 11 sectors declining. Energy (OW) led, rising 2.0%, and it tops the sector derby at 44.5% ytd. Communication Services (MW) was the only other gainer, up 1.1%. Health Care (OW) fell

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Will The Bull Market Survive Higher Oil Prices & Bond Yields?

Sep 13, 2026 5 min read paid

The price of Brent crude is back above $100 a barrel. Government bond yields are rising nearly everywhere, with the 10-year yields of Australia and the UK both above 5.00% and the US’s at 4.97%. Either development would normally be enough to break a global bull market in stocks. Neither has so far. That's because corporate earnings keep climbing. The Fed, the Bank of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 14-18

Sep 13, 2026 4 min read

Global bond yields rose across the board last week (chart). The US 10-year Treasury bond yield climbed 19 basis points to 4.97%. The UK's 10-year gilt closed at 5.35%, near its highest level in decades. Even Japan's 10-year, at 2.99%, is near multi-year highs. The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its third rate hike of the latest tightening cycle

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Still Targeting 8400, But Raising Odds Of Bearish Outcome To 30%

Sep 12, 2026 5 min read

I. Performance The good news is that our recommendation to overweight the S&P 500 Energy sector is working well (chart). The bad news is that it is doing so because the war in the Middle East has re-escalated. Saudi Arabia has shut down its East-West pipeline as a precaution after a drone attack that originated in Iraq. The pipeline had been moving 4 million to 5

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Bond Vigilantes Dare Bessent To Use His Bazooka

Sep 10, 2026 5 min read paid

On September 1, we warned you that September is back. We wrote, "Everyone in the stock market knows that September is the cruelest month for stocks. But when it is a bad month, it tends to create buying opportunities for a year-end rally that often starts in October." So far, the month has been crueler to bond investors than to stock investors. The 10-year US Treasury

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Bessent Tells Bond Vigilantes: "I Am The House"

Sep 9, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Bessent Intervening On August 19, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expansion of the Treasury's buyback program in the long end of the yield curve. Today, the Treasury unveiled a $6 billion buyback operation in the 10- to 20-year sector, with Bessent stating that the goal is to ensure "that there is not a bad, big adverse outcome" in the Treasury market. However, the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

DEEP DIVE: CPI Versus PCED Crib Notes

Sep 8, 2026 5 min read paid

The outcome of the September 16-17 FOMC meeting will likely hinge on this week's August CPI and PPI reports. Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently noted that while inflation remains "meaningfully above" the Fed's 2.0% target, the three-month annualized core PCED inflation rate fell from 4.76% in February to 3.05% in July (chart). If that trend continues, he said he

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 7-11

Sep 7, 2026 3 min read

August payroll employment jumped 162,000, a sharp reversal from July's decline, while the August unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Those numbers reinforce our view that the labor market remains solid, so the Fed has little reason to delay a rate hike. The federal funds futures market now prices a 59% chance of a hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, up from roughly 50/

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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