Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 13-17

Jul 11, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,575.39, up 1.2% on the week, while the Nasdaq rose 1.7% last week. The dominant story was a sharp re-escalation of the war between the US and Iran. Trump declared the ceasefire "over" on Wednesday after Iranian strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US carried out fresh airstrikes Wednesday night

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

June FOMC Minutes Confirm Fed's Hawkish Pivot

Jul 9, 2026 4 min read

I. Sentiment The S&P 500 first rose above 7,500 on May 14. It has continued to fluctuate around there since then. This may be a sign that investors are a bit fatigued from all the commotion about the Strait of Hormuz, AI, earnings, Warsh, the Magnificent-7, semiconductors, FOMO, and FEMO so far this year. The market might continue to fluctuate around 7,500 over the rest

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

War! What Is It Good For?

Jul 8, 2026 3 min read

The 1970 song "War! What Is It Good For?" was performed by the Temptations on an album and by Edwin Starr as a single. The song's answer to the question is "Absolutely nothing!" The powerful lyrics include: "It ain't nothing but a heartbreaker / Friend only to the undertaker, woo!" Financial market history shows that geopolitical crises, including wars, often have

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Making Sense Of A Strange Jobs Report

Jul 8, 2026 1 min read paid

The June jobs report was widely characterized as weak. Ed and Elias don’t see it that way. The disappointing headline gain reflected a misleading statistical distortion. June’s decline in Leisure & Hospitality was attributable to an early Memorial Day, which boosted May’s gain. With the support of multiple underlying strengths, the labor market remains resilient, as demand slightly exceeds supply. The Fed’s tightening bias—prioritizing its

Ed Yardeni

Booming AI Imports Depressing US GDP, Though Not Final Sales

Jul 7, 2026 4 min read paid

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates Q2-2026 real GDP growth at just 1.4% (saar). That's because net exports (i.e., exports minus imports) dragged it down by 1.3 ppt. During the quarter, AI-related imports increased sharply, outpacing the large increase in US exports of crude oil and petroleum products. The picture is brighter below the headline number. Real final sales to private

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Rotation Or Correction Ahead In Response To Earnings Season?

Jul 6, 2026 4 min read paid

The Q2-2026 earnings reporting season begins next week. The major banks will report at the end of next week. We expect they will beat expectations by reducing their bad-loan provisions. In addition, loan demand has been growing faster in recent weeks, and the IPO calendar has been busy. The big risk up ahead is that technology companies, especially the hyperscalers, won't beat analysts' overly optimistic

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 6-10

Jul 5, 2026 3 min read

The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,483.23, up 1.8% on the week, while the Nasdaq rose 2.1%. Memory chip stocks pulled back sharply last week, cooling off the parabolic run that followed Micron's blowout June 24 earnings report (chart). Shares surged 17% the next day to a new all-time high of $1,255.00, then closed Thursday at $975.56, down

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: AI Trade Depresses EM Trade

Jul 5, 2026 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: A Bubble In Bubbles?

Jul 4, 2026 6 min read

The S&P 500 rose 9.3% ytd through July 2. Can it rise another 10.2% over the rest of this year to achieve our S&P 500 target of 8250? We still think so. Consider the following: (1) FOMO vs FEMO. Is it time to underweight the S&P 500 Information Technology sector? It is if you believe the AI trade is a bubble about

Ed Yardeni

God Bless America!

Jul 2, 2026 6 min read

The United States of America has thrived for 250 years. There have been setbacks along the way. But they were overcome. The Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776 set the stage for Americans to prosper by declaring: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty

Ed Yardeni

Warsh's Sintra Serenade To The Bond Vigilantes

Jul 1, 2026 4 min read paid

The temperature was 81 degrees in Sintra, Portugal, today. Tomorrow it will be 101 degrees. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke on a panel in Sintra today. He was cool as a cucumber. This was his second public appearance since his first press conference as the new Fed chair on June 17. Back then, he was surprisingly hawkish, stressing that he and his colleagues on the FOMC are committed to restoring

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Update On The ‘G-Shaped’ Versus ‘K-Shaped’ Economy Debate

Jul 1, 2026 1 min read paid

Consumer spending has been remarkably resilient, growing for the past two years faster than consumers’ disposable incomes have and depressing their saving rate. Current trends point to a negative saving rate by 2030. But that’s nothing to worry about, explain Ed and Elias. What we have isn’t a “K-shaped” economy, with the affluent spending briskly and everyone else struggling to make ends meet, as many assume. It’

Ed Yardeni

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