Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Time for A Break Or a Brake?

May 17, 2026 5 min read paid

The S&P 500 sold off by 1.2% on Friday after hitting a record high of 7501.24 on Thursday. We are sticking with our 8250 year-end target for the S&P 500 (chart). However, the index might have peaked for a while. That's because bond yields spiked on Friday, which just happened to be Kevin Warsh's first day at the office as

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 18-22

May 17, 2026 4 min read

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.2% from its record high of 7501.24 on Thursday. A run of hot inflation data and a spike in bond yields did the damage on Friday. April headline CPI hit 3.8% y/y, the highest since May 2023, while core CPI was 2.8%. The big shocker was last Wednesday's April PPI for final demand, which rose

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

COMMUNICATION SERVICES: Highly Concentrated With GOOGLE & META

May 16, 2026 3 min read

We continue to recommend a market-weight position in S&P 500 Communication Services, alongside our market-weight call on Information Technology, which we reiterated on April 25. The sector is a lopsided barbell. Alphabet and Meta together are the only two components of the sector's Interactive Media Services industry. Together, they account for almost 80% of the industry's market capitalization and 69% of its earnings (chart)

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Another Day, Another Step Closer to a Tightening Bias

May 15, 2026 4 min read paid

Two important psychological levels are being tested in the US Treasury market right now. The 2-year yield is trading just above 4.00% this evening, May 14 (chart). That's 25bps above the current federal funds rate (FFR) range of 3.50%-3.75%. That implies investors believe the Fed may need to raise the FFR by at least 25 bps in the foreseeable future. The 30-year yield breached

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

From Cuts to Hikes: The Fed's Shifting Calculus

May 13, 2026 5 min read paid

The April FOMC statement contained an easing bias, signaling that the Fed remained likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) over the rest of the year. That bias is becoming increasingly difficult to defend. Three voting members on the FOMC (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) already dissented against retaining it at the April meeting of the monetary policy committee. Boston Fed President Susan Collins has since added her voice to

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Sweet Spot For The Labor Market

May 13, 2026 1 min read paid

April’s employment report had lots of good news for the labor market. Ed & Elias discuss some of the news that seemed to be bad but really wasn’t on closer inspection. In their view, the April jobs report amounts to a vote of confidence in the narrative that the labor market is stabilizing and may even be improving without boosting inflation. Meanwhile, retiring Baby Boomers are weighing on

Ed Yardeni

CPI Heats Up But, Unlike 2021-22, Wages Remain Cool

May 12, 2026 4 min read paid

During 2021 and 2022, a wage-price spiral was exacerbated by widespread global supply chain disruptions and a spike in oil prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine (charts). This time, the war in the Middle East has caused oil prices to spike. Some supply chains have been disrupted. But a wage-price spiral is less likely. The labor market is in equilibrium this time (chart). In 2021-22, demand for labor

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 11-15

May 10, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,398.93, another record high. The index is 9.2% above its 200-day moving average. Earnings have done the heavy lifting so far this year. The Q1-2026 earnings reporting season is winding down, with companies representing 1% of the S&P 500’s market cap reporting this week and another 12% the following week. Industry analysts’ consensus Q1-2026 earnings forecasts

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Raising Our 2026 S&P 500 Target Range Due To Earnings-Led Meltup

May 10, 2026 5 min read paid

We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250. We've been bullish on earnings but not as bullish as the recent consensus of industry analysts. We've never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current and coming years as they have in recent months. The result has been an earnings-led meltup in the stock market. Our 2026 and 2027

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst
Elias Griepentrog

INDUSTRIES: Mag-7 Isn't The Only AI Game In Town

May 9, 2026 4 min read

Since ChatGPT was introduced in late November 2022, the AI trade has been mostly focused on the Magnificent-7, especially the big cloud companies, i.e., the "hyperscalers” (chart). For a while, they were all viewed as AI dominators until DeepSeek was released by a Chinese software company in late January 2025. Increasing confidence that US Large Language Models (LLMs) would remain competitive revived the Mag-7's stock market

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Productivity Booms As Labor Market Shows Signs Of Revival

May 7, 2026 4 min read paid

When the labor market sneezes, ADP, Paychex, and ManpowerGroup catch colds. The stock prices of all three sold off sharply as hiring cooled starting early last year (chart). But on balance, the latest batch of labor market data suggests that employment conditions may be improving, and employment-related stocks may be bottoming (chart). We disagree with the widely-held notion that AI is a net job killer. In our opinion, AI will

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Earnings-Led Meltup

May 6, 2026 4 min read paid

We have nothing to fear but nothing to fear. Stock investors have been fearless since the S&P 500 fell to the year's low on March 30, when war-related fears peaked. The index has soared 16.1% since then to a new record high. Yesterday, we explained our Buzz Lightyear Theory (BLT) of the stock market. Investors have concluded that, thanks to AI, demand for "compute&

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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