Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: From Powell To Warsh

Mar 25, 2026 1 min read paid

Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Powell, no doubt will lean toward dovish policy-making, under pressure from the President to convince the rest of the FOMC to err on the side of easing. But the timing of Warsh’s confirmation is uncertain. Today, Dr Ed along with our new contributing editor Elias Griepentrog take us on a thought experiment: Under three alternative scenarios for the length

Ed Yardeni

'Obliteration Day' Was Postponed. Time To Buy Stocks?

Mar 24, 2026 4 min read paid

Stocks rallied on Monday because President Donald Trump postponed his 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday to "obliterate" Iran's power plants if the country doesn't fully open the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, he extended the deadline by five days, until Friday, while talks with Iran continue. Investors and traders recall that stocks soared on April 9, 2025, an hour before the stock market closed after Trump

Ed Yardeni

Thanks For The Memory

Mar 23, 2026 4 min read paid

We are taking a break from the war. We may wait until Friday to update our views on its likely impact on the global economy and financial markets. This morning, President Donald Trump triggered a relief rally in the stock market by postponing his threatened attack on Iran's power plants, scheduled for today, until the end of the week. He added that the US is negotiating with Iran.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 23-27

Mar 22, 2026 4 min read

The week ahead is all about oil prices. As the Iran war enters its fourth week, the soaring price of crude has rapidly upended economic forecasts and shifted expectations for central bank policy. Nowhere more so than at the Fed. In barely a week, bond traders have swung from expecting rate cuts to pricing in roughly a 50% probability of a tightening move by October. In Europe, the financial markets

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Odds Of A Longer War Increasing As Trump Set To Declare Victory

Mar 22, 2026 5 min read paid

Is the fog of war thinning or thickening? President Donald Trump has suggested that he is getting ready to declare victory. However, the Iranians have been at war with the US and Israel for 47 years and are showing no signs of ending it. On Friday night, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US is "getting very close to meeting our objectives" and is considering "winding

Ed Yardeni

Why Is Gold Melting?

Mar 19, 2026 4 min read

There's plenty of geopolitical risk today, along with higher global inflation and larger US federal budget deficits ahead. Yet, the price of an ounce of gold is down sharply today. It fell to an intraday low of $4508 per ounce at 9:02 am EST, down from a recent closing high of $5311 on Monday, March 2, two days after the start of the current war in the

Ed Yardeni

Did Powell Trigger A Taper Tantrum In The Stock Market Today?

Mar 18, 2026 4 min read paid

The fog of war is back. Oil prices jumped today after Israel attacked Iran's largest gas processing facility. Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened to strike oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Qatar then reported that Iranian missile strikes had damaged a key liquefied natural gas export facility. Early this morning at 2:17 a.m. EST, the price of a barrel of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Is Less Dire Strait Easing Market Fears? (with special guest Eric Wallerstein)

Mar 18, 2026 1 min read paid

The energy and financial markets are taking the war in the Middle East remarkably well, all things considered. Investors seem to believe that the war will be short-lived and perhaps are focusing on the bright side: The lost physical supplies of oil are maybe half as much as they could have been, partly because Iran is still allowing tankers from friendly nations to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Today,

Ed Yardeni

Oil Shock Is Latest Test Of US Economy's Resilience

Mar 17, 2026 3 min read paid

The latest crude oil price spike has drawn comparisons to previous similar spikes (charts). There were six of them before the current one, since 1970. The first five coincided with recessions. The two during the 1970s caused two recessions and boosted inflation, resulting in a lost "stagflationary" decade for the stock market. The previous spike in 2022 coincided with a bear market in stocks, but there was no

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

A Break In The Weather

Mar 16, 2026 4 min read paid

Forecasting the weather is easier than forecasting the timeline and outcome of a war. The expression "the fog of war" is a bit confusing because fog often lifts within hours. Wars last much longer. Today, we had "a break in the weather." The war is ongoing, but there were sighs of relief in the energy and financial markets. That's because some tankers are getting

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 16-20

Mar 15, 2026 3 min read

This week, many of the world’s top central banks have their first crack at responding to skyrocketing oil and gas prices driven by the war in the Middle East. Along with hearing from the Fed (Wed), we’ll get rate decisions from the European Central Bank (Thu), the Bank of Japan (Thu), the Bank of England (Thu), the Bank of Canada (Wed), the Swiss National Bank (Thu), Sweden’s

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: The War Is Getting Foggier

Mar 14, 2026 3 min read

Why has the stock market held up so well since the start of the war? The S&P 500 is down only 4.96% from its record high on January 27 and 3.59% since the start of the war on February 28 (chart). It fell to its 200-day moving average on Friday and held it. The obvious explanation is that the market is discounting a short war. That

Ed Yardeni

Page 3 of 142