Ed Yardeni

The Champagne Glass Is More Than Half Full

Apr 15, 2026 5 min read paid

Happy days are here again! The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to record highs today, which just happens to be tax day. What's all the excitement about? The AI bubble hasn't burst, so far. Instead, hyperscaler stocks are leading the charge since the stock market bottomed on March 30 (chart). The private credit bubble may be losing some air, but it isn't

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: On US Profits, Consumers & Inflation

Apr 15, 2026 1 min read paid

With the US economy producing record-breaking earnings and margins, Dr Ed and Elias wouldn’t be surprised to see employment pick up despite AI adoption and other factors holding it back. … They also expect consumer spending to remain resiliently robust even though income growth isn’t keeping up, which is depressing the saving rate. But not even a negative saving rate—which may occur—would tank consumer spending in today’

Ed Yardeni

Mr. Market Says The War Is Over

Apr 14, 2026 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 is now up 1.3% since Friday, February 27, the day before Gulf War III started (chart). So as far as the stock market is concerned, the war is over until further notice. The index will be at a new record high tomorrow if it increases by more than 11.22 points! It has been yet another V-shaped buy-the-dip recovery in the S&P

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ROARING 2020s: Wall Street's Analysts Even More Bullish On Earnings Than Us!

Apr 13, 2026 4 min read paid

The US economy remains resilient, and so do corporate earnings. The US economy has passed several stress tests in recent years. The war in the Middle East is proving to be the latest stress test for the US economy, which seems to be passing it, so far. The macroeconomic data released in recent weeks confirms this resilience. The pre-war growth trajectory was solid enough that we were on the verge

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

MARKET CALL: Yogi Was Right: 'The War Ain't Over Till It's Over'

Apr 12, 2026 3 min read paid

In his seminal work, On War (1832), Carl von Clausewitz famously wrote: "War is the continuation of politics by other means." The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire in their war and to talks seeking a diplomatic solution. However, their talks failed, and now they are both resuming the war. On Sunday, US Central Command said the Navy will blockade all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 13-17

Apr 12, 2026 3 min read

The unresolved Middle East conflict will remain center stage this week. It is having an immediate impact on energy prices in the United States. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will push prices up again at the start of the week. The impact on the US inflation pipeline remains the dominant macroeconomic theme, ahead of Tuesday's March PPI release. A relatively quiet week on the economic

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

FINANCIALS: Private Credit Fears Creating Attractive Values

Apr 11, 2026 3 min read

The big money center banks will report their Q1 earnings this coming week. They are included in the S&P 500 Financials sector, which has been the worst-performing one in the S&P 500 this year to date, down 7.3% through April 10, compared with a broadly flat market over this period (chart). One of the major culprits is the gathering storm in private credit. It has

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

How Transitory Is The Inflation Problem Ahead?

Apr 9, 2026 4 min read paid

This evening, Reuters reports that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday, despite the US-Iran ceasefire. Tehran asserted its control by warning ships to remain within its territorial waters as they passed through the Strait to avoid mines. As we've noted previously, geopolitical crises tend to provide buying opportunities in the stock market. Sure enough: Following a 9.1%

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

As Yogi Said: 'It Ain't Over Till It's Over' & 'It's Déjà Vu All Over Again'

Apr 8, 2026 4 min read paid

The fog of war has been replaced by the fog of the ceasefire between the US and Iran. Negotiators for the two countries will meet in Islamabad on Friday. They met many times before without averting the war. The pounding of Iran by the US and Israel has failed to topple Iran's regime, which still seems to have firm command and control of the country despite the decapitation

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Anatomy Of The US Labor Market

Apr 8, 2026 1 min read paid

Last week's employment report was widely interpreted as good because jobs growth rebounded and the unemployment rate dropped. Dr Ed and Elias disagree. Our inflation-adjusted Earned Income Proxy fell as inflation surged, a bad sign. Moreover, the jobs growth required to keep unemployment stable (the "breakeven rate") has collapsed, so a dropping unemployment rate must be evaluated in that context. Both labor supply and labor demand

Ed Yardeni

Apocalypse Now, Not! Lowering Recession Odds.

Apr 7, 2026 4 min read paid

Two hours before his latest deadline, President Donald Trump canceled Obliteration Day. He agreed tonight to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The deal was brokered by Pakistan. Trump confirmed the US had received a 10-point proposal from Iran as a basis for negotiating a permanent peace agreement. Israel separately agreed to suspend its bombing during negotiations. The market reaction was swift. Crude oil prices tumbled, while S&P 500

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Oil Price Shock Boosts March Prices-Paid PMIs

Apr 6, 2026 4 min read paid

Tomorrow night at 8:00 p.m. is the deadline by which Iran must accept President Donald Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face a US attack on its power plants and bridges. There is no way to predict the outcome. We can't rule out that Iran will cave in. Or, Trump may postpone the deadline again, explaining that negotiations are making progress.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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