Ed Yardeni

US MARKET CALL: Warsh Proof

Aug 29, 2026 4 min read

Last Wednesday, Nvidia's earnings report came in much stronger than expected, confirming that the AI boom is still going strong. On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was much more hawkish than expected in his Jackson Hole speech. He acknowledged that inflation remains above the Fed's 2.0% target. Overall, as we expected, these two events didn't move the markets much. The S&P

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

AI Buildout Is Stimulating The Economy

Aug 27, 2026 4 min read paid

Nvidia's Q2 earnings report suggests that the AI spending boom is broadening. The company forecast 70% revenue growth next fiscal year, far above Wall Street's 45% expectation, and said growth would be even stronger if supply constraints were less severe. Significantly, non-hyperscaler revenue grew 138% y/y, outpacing hyperscaler revenue growth of 102% y/y, as demand broadened beyond mega-cap tech into AI-native

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Bessent Twist Is Also Bessent Put

Aug 26, 2026 5 min read

I. Bessent Put For Bonds Over the past few weeks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took three actions to deter the Bond Vigilantes by showing them the Treasury's ample toolbox for stabilizing bond yields. First, the Treasury joined Japan in supporting the yen, reducing the risk that Tokyo would need to sell Treasuries to defend its currency. Second, it announced that it was doubling buybacks of 10- to 30-

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Trump Threatens Military Action Against The Bond Vigilantes

Aug 26, 2026 1 min read paid

The Bond Vigilantes have driven up Treasury bond yields recently, thundering onto the scene in alarm over the government’s huge borrowing needs, record corporate bond issuance, three inflationary supply shocks, a cloudy Fed path, resilient nominal GDP growth, a higher neutral interest rate, and a fragile yen. On the flip side, the Trump administration is determined to keep yields tethered—one way or another. Also holding yields in check

Ed Yardeni

Peak Fear? Peak Yields? Peak Earnings? Peak AI?

Aug 25, 2026 5 min read paid

The answers are: Yes, Maybe, No, and No. We have nothing to fear but nothing to fear. The stock market likes to climb a wall of worry. So too much optimism tends to be bearish, while too much pessimism tends to be bullish. Fortunately, there is plenty to fear these days. Indeed, in a recent LinkedIn post, billionaire Ray Dalio reiterated that recent events confirm that the US is on

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

The Latest Pitch of America's Top Bond Salesman

Aug 24, 2026 5 min read paid

Because of the recent commotion in the bond market, Dr. Ed has received many inquiries about the “Bond Vigilantes,” a term he coined in 1983. In response, please see his Bond Vigilantes Primer, which includes a few of his most pertinent excerpts on the topic over the years. I. The New Treasury-Fed Accord In November 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, "My job is to be the nation&

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: China Dumping Its Excess Production On The World

Aug 23, 2026 5 min read paid

The Go Global trade continues to work; August has not interrupted it. Asia's AI-linked stock markets are back in the performance-derby lead after July's shakeout, and the other emerging markets that led this year are leading again. Last week's action was in bonds. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the Treasury's buyback program for longer-dated debt, lifting repurchases to at

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Health Care, Semiconductors, Consumer Staples & Materials

Aug 23, 2026 5 min read paid

Health Care (OW) led the S&P 500 sectors this week, rising 4.3%. Energy (OW) was next at 2.5% and is up 41.2% ytd, the best of the 11 sectors (chart). Materials (OW) also finished higher, up 2.3%. The other eight sectors fell. Utilities (OW) was the weakest at -3.6%, followed by Industrials (OW) at -3.4% and Information Technology (MW) at -3.2%

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 24-28

Aug 23, 2026 4 min read

Global bond markets stole the spotlight last week. The US 10-year yield closed at 4.74% and the 30-year at 5.27%, up 6bps and 2bps, respectively, for the week (chart). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent surprised the markets on Wednesday by announcing that the US Treasury would double its long-term debt purchases to at least $4 billion per operation; that was the same day that the US

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Stocks Getting Cheaper As Earnings Outpace Prices

Aug 22, 2026 5 min read

Stocks are cheaper than they were in January. S&P 500 forward earnings has risen twice as fast as the S&P 500 stock price index so far this year. So the forward P/E has declined as the index rose to record highs. The impetus was FEMO (fabulous earnings momentum) as opposed to FOMO (fear of missing out). Investors are getting more earnings for their money than

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Freaking Out Over The Bond Market

Aug 20, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Bonds On Wednesday, the Treasury Department announced that it was doubling the size of its effort to buy back Treasury securities with maturities between 10 and 30 years, ‌to $4 billion per operation. Long-dated Treasury borrowing costs had been rising sharply amid competition for capital from AI data-center builders, and on worries about government deficits. US sovereign debt hit a record $40 trillion on Wednesday. Bond yields

Ed Yardeni

Bessent's Put For The Bond Vigilantes & More On Fed's Hawks vs Owls Debate

Aug 19, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The US Treasury Today, the US Treasury announced it is at least doubling its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated government debt. Long-end yields fell sharply after this morning's release (chart). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is signaling that he will do whatever it takes to keep a lid on bond yields. His message to the Bond Vigilantes: "You folks aren't the only

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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