Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: The Tug Of War Between P/E And E

Apr 5, 2026 5 min read paid

Last Monday saw the S&P 500 down 9.1% from its January 27 high, which we believe marks the trough of the latest pullback, for now. That was our call on Tuesday. The next two days could make or break our call. Today, President Donald Trump issued a final, profanely worded ultimatum, setting a firm deadline for what he is calling "Power Plant Day." He specified

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 6-10

Apr 5, 2026 3 min read

This week will continue to be dominated by developments in the Middle East, though a heavy slate of data releases—including the FOMC March Minutes, February personal income, and March CPI—will compete for attention. President Trump confirmed Wednesday night that the United States could conclude its involvement in the Iran War within two to three weeks, providing an exit ramp from a conflict that has roiled energy markets since

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Stocks: Was That The Bottom On Monday?

Apr 2, 2026 4 min read

On Tuesday night, we suggested that the S&P 500 might have bottomed on Monday, with a pullback of 9.1% (i.e., just under a 10% correction) from its January 27 record high. Tuesday's strong equity rally was triggered by reports that the US had found an exit ramp from its war with Iran. Wednesday night, President Donald Trump confirmed that the US would exit in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

POTUS Sees An Exit Ramp Up Ahead

Apr 1, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The War and the President's Speech Yesterday, we concluded that the S&P 500's pullback bottomed on Monday, just shy of a 10% correction. The S&P 500 fell on Monday to 6343.72, down 9.1% from its January 27 record high. That low could be retested, but we think that yesterday's big rally, combined with the recent drop in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Bond Vigilantes Are Mobilizing Globally

Apr 1, 2026 1 min read paid

The unprecedented oil-supply shock caused by war in the Middle East has crushed investors’ former expectations for subdued inflation and dovish central banks’ actions. The Bond Vigilantes are repricing yield curves worldwide, especially at the short end, in some economies more than others. Today, Dr Ed and our new contributing editor Elias Griepentrog analyze what global yield-curve spreads imply about investors’ new expectations, opining that the front end of the

Ed Yardeni

Relief Rally Ends Correction Risk

Mar 31, 2026 3 min read paid

Today's powerful relief rally in the stock market was fueled by news that President Donald Trump intends to declare victory in the war with Iran, according to an article in this morning's Wall Street Journal. Around noon, the market moved higher still on a report that the President of Iran said his country is ready to end the war if the US agrees to its 5-point

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

The War, The Yield Curve, The Fed, Private Credit, and Gold

Mar 30, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The War Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian general and military theorist, famously observed that "war is a mere continuation of politics by other means." He argued that war is never an end in itself. Instead, it is a tool used by states to achieve a specific political objective. Therefore, the military strategy must always be subordinate to the political goal. If the political aim changes, the military

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Stock P/Es Discounting Higher-For-Longer Oil Prices & Interest Rates

Mar 29, 2026 5 min read paid

The fog of war is getting thicker because of the likelihood of US boots on the ground (the "bog of war"). The US Department of War has deployed 15,000 troops to the war zone, raising the risks of a longer war and more American casualties, which will cause an uproar in the US. On Tuesday, March 3, we wrote: "We've been expecting a pullback

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 30-April 3

Mar 29, 2026 4 min read

This week will continue to be dominated by developments in the Middle East. On Friday, the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and steel facilities, with Iran retaliating across the Persian Gulf, while President Trump pushed back a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face further attacks on its power infrastructure. The escalation marked a sharp shift in tone from earlier in the week, when the

Toby Hearst
Ed Yardeni

Eurozone's Latest Energy Crisis

Mar 26, 2026 5 min read

NEWS FLASH: President Donald Trump postponed Obliteration Day again today, until Monday, April 6 at 8:00 pm EST. He said he is granting a request from the Iranian government to extend the pause on potential airstrikes on Iran's power plants by an additional 10 days. That will prolong uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets. It also means oil prices will remain elevated for at least another

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Gold, Oil, Stocks & Bonds In The War

Mar 25, 2026 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump must believe that the war will be over soon. The White House announced today that he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14 and 15. The Iranians responded to Trump's 15-point peace plan today with a list of five conditions, according to Press TV, including reparations, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and no more assassinations. Interestingly, they didn'

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: From Powell To Warsh

Mar 25, 2026 1 min read paid

Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Powell, no doubt will lean toward dovish policy-making, under pressure from the President to convince the rest of the FOMC to err on the side of easing. But the timing of Warsh’s confirmation is uncertain. Today, Dr Ed along with our new contributing editor Elias Griepentrog take us on a thought experiment: Under three alternative scenarios for the length

Ed Yardeni

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