Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Hawks Versus Owls At The Fed

Aug 19, 2026 1 min read paid

Today, Ed and Elias share bird’s eye views of the economy from the perches of the hawks and owls on the Fed. The hawks may favor tightening at the FOMC’s September meeting, unconvinced that inflation is on a steady flight path down to the Fed’s 2.0% target. The owls are more confident of inflation’s downward course. July’s subdued inflation readings support their case for

Ed Yardeni

AI-Led Economic Boom Driving Yields Higher In US As Japanese Yields Continue To Normalize

Aug 18, 2026 4 min read paid

Several factors are driving bond yields higher worldwide (chart). The war in the Middle East in March boosted yields amid concerns that soaring oil prices would revive inflation. The war, along with other geopolitical crises, is bound to increase defense spending and widen already bloated government deficits. Central banks are increasingly pivoting from easing to tightening their monetary policies (chart). As a result, 10-year government bond yields have increased

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Is The Fed's Stock Valuation Model Working Again?

Aug 17, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The Fed's Stock Valuation Model In his famous December 5, 1996 speech, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan asked, "How can we judge whether stocks are overvalued or undervalued?" His staff apparently scrambled to examine various stock valuation models to help him gauge the market’s exuberance. One such model was made public, albeit buried in the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report to Congress that accompanied Greenspan’

Ed Yardeni

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Momentum Is Back

Aug 16, 2026 3 min read paid

Momentum is back in the Go Global trade. The rotation that hit the AI-linked stock markets in July has reversed, and the leadership that held for most of 2026 is back in play. South Korea is the clearest sign of this development. The KOSPI is up more than 20% from its July 30 closing low. That ends a brutal stretch. The index fell almost 40% from its June peak

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Stories About Earnings, Margins & Multiples

Aug 16, 2026 4 min read paid

Energy (OW) led the S&P 500 sectors last week, rising 7.3%. It is up 37.8% ytd, the best of all the sectors. Financials (OW) rose 0.9% and is on an 11-week winning streak. Health Care (OW) and Utilities (OW) also gained last week. Consumer Discretionary (UW) and Materials (OW) fell. Communication Services (MW) was down 1.0% for the week and is up just

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Roaring Decades

Aug 15, 2026 4 min read

Last week, we raised our year-end S&P 500 target from 8,250 to 8,400. We are sticking with our 10,000 target by the end of the decade, though we might raise it. Our Roaring 2020s scenario is delivering even better S&P 500 earnings than we expected. FEMO (fabulous earnings momentum) is driving the stock market higher! The S&P 500 is up

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 17-21

Aug 15, 2026 3 min read

Last week brought mixed inflation news in the US: July’s core CPI inflation rate cooled to 2.5% y/y, its lowest since March 2021 (chart). However, July's comparable PPI rose 4.4%. Wednesday’s release of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting minutes should provide some insights on how Fed officials were assessing the outlook for inflation before these numbers were available. Weekly unemployment claims (Thu)

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

The Fed's Divide: Will Core PCED Settle The Debate?

Aug 13, 2026 4 min read paid

The FOMC is divided between a hawkish and an owlish camp. The hawks include Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, all of whom dissented at the July FOMC meeting in favor of a rate hike. Logan argues that policy is no longer restraining the economy. Hammack recently said that "now is the time to act" and that the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

July CPI: The Fed Is Still In The Woods

Aug 12, 2026 4 min read paid

The July CPI report was good news for Fed officials and the rest of us. Inflation is moving closer to the Fed's 2.0% target. However, the inflation picture may not be as bright as the CPI report suggests. New York Fed President John Williams recently said that if core PCED inflation readings remain above 0.2% m/m during the second half of this year, then the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Does The Jobs Report Change Anything?

Aug 12, 2026 1 min read paid

The Fed’s monetary policy mandate requires consideration of both inflation and labor market conditions. If the former compels a rate hike next month, would the latter stand in the way? That’s the question of the hour after last week’s jobs report, with a headline that telegraphed “weakness.” Elias and Ed argue that the headline numbers looked deceptively weak because of calendar effects and World Cup related distortions.

Ed Yardeni

Raising Our S&P 500 Earnings & Price Targets Outlook Due To FEMO (Fabulous Earnings Momentum)

Aug 11, 2026 4 min read

I. Quarterly Earnings Per Share What a fabulous Q2-2026 earnings season it has been! So far, 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported. They broadly crushed industry analysts' forecasts for earnings and profit margins, both of which saw a boost from mark-to-market (MTM) gains from Alphabet and Amazon for a second straight quarter. These MTM gains (along with Meta’s little-mentioned gain from

Ed Yardeni
Joe Abbott

Updating The Worry List

Aug 10, 2026 5 min read

The S&P 500 hit yet another record high yesterday, led by fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO). That puts the index closer to our year-end target of 8,250 and 10,000 by the end of the decade. The economy has been growing without a recession since the Great Financial Crisis, except for the two-month lockdown recession in 2020. Our Roaring 2020s scenario is in its seventh year.

Ed Yardeni

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