Ed Yardeni

Nirvana: Will Somebody Tell The Fed That We Have Arrived?

Feb 18, 2026 4 min read paid

The Fed achieved its congressional dual mandate in January. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, and the CPI inflation rate was down to 2.4% y/y. Those round down to what we call “Nirvana” readings, i.e., the low unemployment level of 4.0% and the Fed’s inflation target of 2.0% (chart). Fed officials should celebrate and go on a long vacation. They can leave the

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Update On Earnings & Review of The Great Rotation Of The Roaring 2020s

Feb 18, 2026 paid

Dr Ed discusses the latest earnings outlook around the world and the remarkable rotation in the global stock market. 🔒Exclusive Early Access for Paid Members: Below, you'll find Dr. Ed's latest webcast. Paid members can enjoy immediate access to the video. This content will become available to the public at a later date—don't miss out on early insights, consider upgrading today!

Ed Yardeni

The Great Valuation Rotation Of The Roaring 2020s

Feb 17, 2026 4 min read paid

For most of the time since the pandemic, large-cap stocks have outperformed their smaller counterparts in the US stock market. That is, the LargeCap S&P 500 index has outperformed the MidCap S&P 400 and SmallCap S&P 600, collectively the “SMidCaps.” That started to change late last year as investors increasingly concluded that the former's earnings outlook had become riskier and its valuations

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: February 17–20

Feb 16, 2026 3 min read

This holiday-shortened week could be a pivotal one for investors trying to gauge the outlook for Fed policymaking. Highlights include a first estimate of Q4-2025 real GDP (Fri), December PCED inflation (Fri), February consumer sentiment (Fri), and the minutes from the January 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Wed), when policymakers held rates steady. This fresh influx is especially welcome as the economy moves past the government-shutdown data distortions and

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Inflation: Are We There Yet?

Feb 16, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Overview On long car rides, the kids in the backseat often ask their parents, "Are we there yet?" That's the question investors are asking about inflation: "Are we at the Fed's 2.0% inflation target yet?" Our answer: "Not quite, but we are getting close." January's CPI report showed headline inflation at 2.4% y/y (chart)

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: AI Is Speed Skating On Ice

Feb 15, 2026 4 min read paid

Technological innovations tend to be disruptive and dynamic. That's especially true with AI, which has the potential to disrupt itself, as evidenced by its ability to write software code, including AI code. So it can feed on itself, with the new code eating the old, making it obsolete very quickly. The pace of obsolescence seems to be moving at warp speed for both AI hardware and software, particularly

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: 10 Reasons To Remain Optimistic About The US Economy

Feb 15, 2026 7 min read paid

The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated February 9, 2026. Roaring 2020s II: Refresher Course. There are 10 good reasons for our optimistic update of the outlooks for real GDP and S&P 500 companies’ earnings in 2026. Without further ado, here they are: (1) Roaring consumer spending. Many taxpayers are expected to see significant refunds this tax season. Early estimates from the Treasury Department suggest

Ed Yardeni

AI Immunity Trade Strikes Again

Feb 12, 2026 4 min read

I. From Digital Back To Analog The “AI Immunity Trade” has caused more casualties in the stock market. It started with selloffs in software and private credit stocks at the beginning of the year. Since then, it has hit wealth managers, insurance brokerage, tax preparation, accounting services, professional data, and legal research. Today, it pummeled office REITs, trucking, and logistics stocks. Investors are scrambling to get out of the digital

Ed Yardeni

Desperately Seeking AI Immunity ... January's Pleasant Jobs Surprise

Feb 11, 2026 4 min read paid

I. AI Immunity Is The New AI Trade After ChatGPT was released on November 30, 2022, investors scrambled to overweight the AI trade, mostly by overweighting the Magnificent-7 (chart). That worked out great until the DeepSeek surprise on January 20, 2025. The AI trade made a big comeback on April 9, 2025, when President Donald Trump postponed his "Liberation Day" tariffs, and after datacenter hyperscalers reiterated their commitment

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: 10 Roaring Reasons To Remain Optimistic

Feb 11, 2026 1 min read paid

Annual real GDP growth averaged 3.6% during the second half of the 1900s versus just 2.1% since 2000. Dr Ed projects a return to 3.6% or higher over the remainder of the “Roaring 2020s” and into the “Roaring 2030s.” Today, he discusses 10 reasons for his bullishness on the outlooks for both the US economy and S&P 500 companies’ earnings. These include robust consumer spending

Ed Yardeni

AI Disrupts Financials. Bad Data Misleads On Economy.

Feb 10, 2026 3 min read paid

AI is an extremely disruptive technology. It has already turned on its masters: The software stocks have been pounded by fears that AI will make coders redundant (chart). Now it is turning on the financial industry. The most direct hit today comes from news that Altruist, a wealth management startup, has launched new AI-enabled tax planning features. This has sparked a "sell first, ask questions later" reaction among

Ed Yardeni

Emerging Markets Continuing To Emerge

Feb 9, 2026 3 min read paid

The US MSCI continues to underperform in the global stock market derby as it did last year (chart). Does this mean that American exceptionalism, which was touted as recently as 2024, is kaput? Is this another sign of de-dollarization? We don't think so. America remains exceptional, and foreigners continue to invest in the US. However, there are plenty of exceptional companies overseas that have also attracted global investors.

Ed Yardeni

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