Ed Yardeni

Bessent Tells Bond Vigilantes: "I Am The House"

Sep 9, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Bessent Intervening On August 19, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expansion of the Treasury's buyback program in the long end of the yield curve. Today, the Treasury unveiled a $6 billion buyback operation in the 10- to 20-year sector, with Bessent stating that the goal is to ensure "that there is not a bad, big adverse outcome" in the Treasury market. However, the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

DEEP DIVE: CPI Versus PCED Crib Notes

Sep 8, 2026 5 min read paid

The outcome of the September 16-17 FOMC meeting will likely hinge on this week's August CPI and PPI reports. Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently noted that while inflation remains "meaningfully above" the Fed's 2.0% target, the three-month annualized core PCED inflation rate fell from 4.76% in February to 3.05% in July (chart). If that trend continues, he said he

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 7-11

Sep 7, 2026 3 min read

August payroll employment jumped 162,000, a sharp reversal from July's decline, while the August unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Those numbers reinforce our view that the labor market remains solid, so the Fed has little reason to delay a rate hike. The federal funds futures market now prices a 59% chance of a hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, up from roughly 50/

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Financials, Real Estate & Utilities

Sep 7, 2026 4 min read paid

Energy (OW) led the S&P 500 sectors again last week, up 2.3% as the price of Brent crude rose back above $95 a barrel. The sector is now up 41.6% ytd, the best of all sectors (chart). Information Technology (MW) rose 1.1% wtd, with Dell stealing the headlines. The performances of the rate-sensitive sectors were mixed: Utilities (OW) rose 0.7%, while Real Estate

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: More Fabulous Earnings Momentum

Sep 6, 2026 4 min read paid

The Fed might or might not raise the federal funds rate this month. The war in the Middle East may or may not be over (and isn't even a war anymore, says VP JD Vance). A debt crisis may be imminent, or not. The Republicans will probably lose the House in the midterms, or maybe not. Putin may or may not invade NATO. Trump might embargo US trade

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Still A Worldwide Bull Market

Sep 6, 2026 4 min read

Stock prices continue to rise worldwide. A run of central bank meetings over the coming weeks will test whether equity composure holds. Bond yields are also rising worldwide. The question is whether that reflects better-than-expected economic growth, higher-than-expected inflation, and/or looming fiscal debt crises. Equities are voting for growth. We are too. Here's more: I. Global Stock Markets The US-to-Developed World

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

A Goldilocks Jobs Report Just In Time For Labor Day

Sep 4, 2026 4 min read

The August US jobs report is among the best we have seen in some time and provided an uplifting backdrop for the Labor Day weekend. Labor demand is solid and becoming more broad-based, unemployment remains low, and labor supply improved in August. At the same time, moderate wage growth and solid productivity gains show that inflationary pressures are subdued in the labor market. In other words, the report reinforces

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Boom Lifts Bond Yields

Sep 3, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Stocks, Bonds & Waller Today, the S&P 500 had its best day in a month as Treasury yields edged lower and the dollar dropped to its lowest level since May. The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.34% after briefly rising to 4.41% on Tuesday. These moves reflect a decline in the probability of a September rate hike to about 50%, down from

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Dell Results Suggest AI Productivity Boom Is Here

Sep 2, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Dell Dell Technologies' stock price is soaring (chart). The company delivered a major beat across the board for its fiscal 2027 second quarter (ended July 31), driven by massive, accelerating demand for AI infrastructure and strong legacy hardware performance. Revenues and earnings rose 58% y/y and 203%, respectively. AI server revenue rose 100%, while traditional servers and networking revenues rose 122%. The results confirm that the AI

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Warsh World

Sep 2, 2026 1 min read paid

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh isn’t one to give the markets a heads-up. Investors are trying to translate what he says into what he would like the Fed to do. To that end, Ed and Elias parse Warsh’s remarks last week at the Jackson Hole symposium. While Warsh’s assessment of economic conditions is hawkish, is it just hawkish squawk or indicative of his vote at September’s

Ed Yardeni

Beware: September Is Back Again

Sep 1, 2026 5 min read paid

I. A Month of Opportunities "The Waste Land" is a poem by T.S. Eliot. It opens with the line, "April is the cruelest month." Apparently, Eliot never managed a stock portfolio. Everyone in the stock market knows that September is the cruelest month for stocks (chart). But when it is a bad month, it tends to create buying opportunities for a year-end rally that

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Is A Debt Crisis Imminent?

Aug 31, 2026 5 min read paid

"You are going to see a crack in the bond market, OK?" JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in a May 30 speech at the Reagan National Economic Forum. The US government debt situation is "nearing the point of no return" and approaching a "death spiral" that could threaten the stability of the world's largest economy, Ray Dalio writes in his new book

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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