Ed Yardeni

A Well-Balanced US Labor Market

Jun 30, 2026 4 min read paid

The stock prices of ADP, Paychex, and ManpowerGroup sold off sharply last year as hiring cooled. Employers froze their headcounts as they assessed the impacts of Trump's tariffs and of AI technologies on their businesses (chart). On May 8, we wrote that the labor market was showing early signs of improvement and that employment-related stocks may have bottomed. So far, so good. Employers now seem to have

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Warsh Taking Hawkish Path to Lower Interest Rates

Jun 29, 2026 4 min read paid

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has often said that the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee should talk publicly less often. He wants the Fed to follow the financial markets rather than the other way around. Yet, two weeks after his first press conference as Fed chair on Wednesday, June 17, he is scheduled to appear on a policy panel on Wednesday, July 1, at the annual ECB Forum on

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: War & Peace

Jun 28, 2026 4 min read paid

During the Napoleonic Wars, British financier Nathan Mayer Rothschild allegedly said: "Buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets." This has become a legendary contrarian investing maxim. It suggests you should buy stocks when war or panic causes markets to plummet ("cannons"), and sell to lock in profits when peace returns and market euphoria sets in ("trumpets"). The maxim seems

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 29 - July 3

Jun 28, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,354.02, down 2.0% on the week, while the Nasdaq fell 4.5%. Apple and Microsoft raised their consumer product prices on Thursday, citing memory and storage chip costs that have more than doubled since last fall and are expected to double again by late 2027. The driver is demand for DRAM and NAND from AI data centers. Memory chip

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: AI Fatigue Weighs On The 'Lag-7'

Jun 27, 2026 4 min read

As we predicted, the S&P 500 had a June Swoon. We expected that it would be more of a broadening rotation than a widespread correction. That's the way it played out. The S&P 500 market-weighted stock price index peaked at a record high of 7,609.78 on June 2 (chart). It fell 3.4% through Friday's close. Over that same

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Fed Still Has An Inflation Problem Despite Plunging Oil Prices

Jun 25, 2026 4 min read paid

The FOMC’s policy stance is determined by the balance of risks to its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. In the current environment, those risks remain firmly skewed toward inflation, justifying last week's FOMC pivot from an easing bias to a tightening one. Today's plethora of May economic data shows that the economy and the labor market are in great shape, while both

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Is The Dollar Debasement Trade Kaput?

Jun 24, 2026 5 min read paid

The "Dollar Debasement Trade" was a big theme in global financial markets last year. The thesis was that President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff hikes would revive inflation in the US and undermine foreigners' confidence in the US's reliability, especially among America's allies. In addition, the president's attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell threatened the Fed's independence and

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Will the Real Kevin Warsh Please Stand Up?

Jun 24, 2026 1 min read paid

Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Fed chair after last week’s FOMC meeting settled a question that the markets had been debating for a year: Which Warsh would show up? In the past, Ed and Elias explain, Warsh hawkishly prioritized fighting inflation, but he presented himself as a dove when auditioning for the Fed chairmanship. Would Chair Warsh be some new hybrid? The hawk won: The FOMC swung

Ed Yardeni

June's Swoons

Jun 23, 2026 4 min read paid

The stock market was hit by another June swoon today. Investors were unnerved by the outcome of last Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The committee participants were more hawkish than expected, according to their Dot Plot. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh abstained from providing his dot, but he came across as very hawkish during his presser, repeatedly stressing the importance of the Fed achieving price stability. Also weighing on AI-related

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

FEMO Lifting Economic Growth & Foreigners Lifting US Stocks

Jun 22, 2026 4 min read paid

In the spectrum of bullish stock markets, there are two polar opposites. The first is driven by FOMO, the Fear of Missing Out, which inflates P/E multiples as investors chase hope and hype rather than fundamentals, creating the conditions for a bubble. The second is driven by FEMO, or Fabulous Earnings Momentum, which works the other way around: Corporate earnings grow faster than stock prices, compressing P/E multiples

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Healthcare: Pockets Of Alpha

Jun 21, 2026 4 min read

We recommend a market-weight position in the S&P 500 Health Care sector. It is down 3.8% ytd, the worst among all 11 S&P 500 sectors, and remains one of the clear laggards of the bull market that began in October 2022 (chart). That underperformance has created selective opportunities. The aggregate sector still lacks a near-term earnings catalyst, carries the second-lowest forward profit

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 22-26