Ed Yardeni

Updating The Worry List

Aug 10, 2026 5 min read

The S&P 500 hit yet another record high yesterday, led by fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO). That puts the index closer to our year-end target of 8,250 and 10,000 by the end of the decade. The economy has been growing without a recession since the Great Financial Crisis, except for the two-month lockdown recession in 2020. Our Roaring 2020s scenario is in its seventh year.

Ed Yardeni

US SECTORS CALL: What's Up, What's Down In The S&P 500?

Aug 9, 2026 4 min read paid

Information Technology (MW) led the S&P 500 sectors last week, up 7.2%. Investors bought back the tech stocks they sold in July. Tech remains below its June peak (chart). Software stocks were especially strong last week (chart). The Financials, Health Care, and Industrials sectors all rose to record highs last week. We have been rating all three overweight (table above). Materials (OW) had a good week too.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Will Yen Yin Or Yang Financial Markets?

Aug 9, 2026 4 min read paid

The Go Global investment strategy has outperformed Stay Home this year, and August has not changed that. Korea and Taiwan are back at the front of the performance rankings to start the month, with China lagging again. Last week, Japan and the US jointly bought yen for the first time since 1998, following its fall to a near 40-year low of around 164 yen per dollar. US Treasury officials

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: History Lesson

Aug 8, 2026 5 min read

The S&P 500 broke out of its summer range this week to yet another record high. The index closed at 7,757.64 on Friday, clearing the 7,500 level it had circled since May 14. The index is 3.5% above its 50-day moving average and 9.8% above its 200-day moving average. Those are not extreme readings. The breakout is a good moment to

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 10-14

Aug 8, 2026 3 min read

Last week, July payrolls fell 23,000, missing the 85,000 consensus, even as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 7 bps on the release before recovering to close little changed near 4.21%. This week, attention turns to inflation. July CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) will be the first hard inflation data since the Fed's meeting two weeks ago.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

People Close To Warsh Are Talking About Him

Aug 6, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The Fed Today's Financial Times ran an exclusive story about Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. It is based on insights provided by unidentified people close to him. They say that he admits that he has made some mistakes, "including failing to reinforce his key messages on price stability." In our opinion, he has been unequivocal about his commitment to restore price stability. He just hasn'

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US Economy Is Fine & The Fed Should Be Turning More Hawkish

Aug 5, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Macro The economy's two most important engines of economic growth, consumer spending and business investment, are booming. In Q2-2026 real GDP, consumption expenditures increased 3.3% (saar) and nonresidential fixed investments jumped 8.4%. The headline and core GDP deflators, the most comprehensive measures of economy-wide inflation, rose 4.3% y/y and 3.8% (chart). Fed officials should be turning hawkish. Recent Q2 earnings

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: GDP Growth Is AI-Powered & G-Shaped (Not K-Shaped)

Aug 5, 2026 1 min read paid

Looking solely at Q2’s GDP growth rate, one would think the economy is weakening. Not so, say Ed and Elias. In fact, demand of all types strengthened last quarter, buoyed by brisk consumer spending, thanks to the Baby Boomers, and brisk business investment, thanks to the AI boom. The lower GDP growth rate was a function of surging imports, which aren’t bad news. Imports often rise in response

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market's Summer Stall Is Over Thanks To The ‘OK Economy’ & FEMO

Aug 4, 2026 5 min read paid

In an interview with CNBC, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and Iran could reach an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz to "freedom of movement" as soon as "today or tomorrow." Following his remarks—alongside reports of ongoing regional mediation via Qatar and Oman—crude oil prices dropped significantly. Brent crude fell below $80/barrel. The US Treasury yield curve edged lower

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Missions Impossible: The War, The Fed & The Yen

Aug 3, 2026 4 min read paid

In Mission: Impossible, Ethan Hunt is always given a nearly impossible mission to accomplish. The objective is crystal clear, the deadline is urgent, and a plan is quickly formulated to achieve the mission. Like Hunt, President Donald Trump, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have clear missions. Their plans for accomplishing these missions are less clear. Despite these uncertainties, the S&P 500 rose today to

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Damage From AI & War Shocks Has Been Minimal

Aug 2, 2026 4 min read paid

The global economy has been hit by two shocks this year and absorbed them well. The war that started in March pushed oil prices higher and disrupted global supply chains. The AI trade then took a dive in July, with Asian semiconductor stocks hit the hardest. Neither the initial shocks nor the aftershocks seem to have damaged the global economy so far. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Information Technology Is On Sale