Ed Yardeni

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: The Fog Of War Is Lifting

Jun 21, 2026 3 min read

As we’ve flagged in recent weeks, an end to the conflict in the Middle East should see many foreign stock markets outperform the US. Lower oil prices reduce global inflationary pressures, give central banks room to ease policy, and tend to benefit oil-importing economies, particularly in emerging markets, more than the US, which exports oil. Last week’s tape delivered exactly that, with Asia leading the Go Global

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Is Irrational Exuberance Driving FEMO?

Jun 20, 2026 5 min read

The stock market bubble of the late 1990s was driven by fear of missing out (FOMO) on the tech-led bull market. As a result, the forward P/E of the S&P 500 rose to a record high of 25.0 in early 2000 as the forward P/E of the S&P 500 Information Technology sector soared to a record high of 55.0 (chart). The

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Geopolitical Release Valve Taking Pressure Off Resilient Economy

Jun 19, 2026 4 min read

The US-Iran interim peace deal is shaky; but if it holds, it will end the US blockade of Iranian ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Now comes a 60-day negotiating period to hammer out a permanent agreement, centered on restricting Iran's nuclear program. The price of Brent crude oil extended its sharp decline following the peace deal announcement, with markets pricing in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

A Hawk In Dove's Clothing ... June Swoon Is Back ... 'We Have A Task Force On That'

Jun 17, 2026 4 min read

We weren't surprised by most of the news following today's FOMC meeting. We expected the committee to pivot from April's easing bias to a tightening bias, and they did. We expected the committee to acknowledge that, in their dual mandate, the risk of higher inflation had risen, while the risk of higher unemployment had fallen, and they did. The FOMC's Summary of

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Hawks Versus Doves Debate At The Fed

Jun 17, 2026 1 min read

This week’s FOMC meeting will be the first over which Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s dovish appointee, presides as Fed chair. Will he succeed in dissuading the hawkishly leaning committee from moving to a tightening bias? Today, Ed and Elias set out both the dovish and hawkish points that the committee no doubt will discuss in what’s bound to be a heated debate. … Also: Warsh steps into his

Ed Yardeni

Crib Notes For Warsh & Co. On The Fed's Dual Mandate

Jun 17, 2026 5 min read

During the final four months of 2025, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) three times by a total of 75bps. The cuts were justified for two reasons: Inflation was approaching the Fed's 2.0% target, and the labor market was weakening. So the FFR was deemed to be too restrictive, i.e., above the "neutral" FFR. Under the Fed's dual mandate, the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Why Is The US More Exuberant Than China?

Jun 16, 2026 4 min read

China has accomplished a great deal over the past few decades, transforming from a poor, insular, and rural economy to the world's second-largest economy. Its transformation has been hailed as an economic miracle. Yet this miracle hasn't been reflected in China's stock market. The China MSCI stock price index has been flatlining since the end of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2010.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Peace Dividend Should Revive 'Go Global'

Jun 14, 2026 4 min read

The past week was a win for our "Go Global" pivot at the end of last year, as foreign equity markets mostly outperformed the "Stay Home" alternative, i.e., the US stock market. Most of the move came in anticipation of lower oil prices on a possible deal between the US and Iran to end their war. This evening, both sides confirmed that a memorandum of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 15-19

Jun 13, 2026 3 min read

The week ahead is dominated by the Fed. Kevin Warsh delivers his first press conference as Fed chair on Wednesday, right after the FOMC releases its policy statement and its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes the Dot Plot showing meeting participants’ forecasts for the federal funds rate. We expect the Fed to abandon its easing bias and pivot toward a tightening bias. The ECB raised its official rate

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Roaring 2020s Rockets To Mars & Beyond

Jun 13, 2026 4 min read

"Space: the final frontier. These are the voyages of the starship Enterprise. Its five-year mission: to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to boldly go where no man has gone before!" That's the introduction to Star Trek, the long-running TV series. On Friday, Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX, went where no man has gone before. He became

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Bull Jumping In Crete

Jun 11, 2026 4 min read paid

Greetings from Greece. My colleagues, Elias and Toby, have been writing the QTs this week while my wife and I are vacationing in Crete and Santorini. The weather, food, and people are great. In Crete, we visited the ruins of the Palace at Knossos. It was the ceremonial and political center of the Minoan civilization and culture that thrived during the Bronze Age. We learned that for fun, Minoans enjoyed

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Inflation & Employment Indicators Are Mixed As Fed Meets

Jun 10, 2026 4 min read paid

The latest batch of inflation and employment indicators suggests that the FOMC might adopt a neutral policy stance at next week's meeting rather than a tightening one as we have been expecting. That seemed to be the initial reaction in the US Treasury market, as 2- and 10-year yields edged lower on today's cooler-than-expected core CPI inflation news. We are sticking with our

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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