Ed Yardeni

Inflation: Are We There Yet?

Feb 16, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Overview On long car rides, the kids in the backseat often ask their parents, "Are we there yet?" That's the question investors are asking about inflation: "Are we at the Fed's 2.0% inflation target yet?" Our answer: "Not quite, but we are getting close." January's CPI report showed headline inflation at 2.4% y/y (chart)

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: AI Is Speed Skating On Ice

Feb 15, 2026 4 min read paid

Technological innovations tend to be disruptive and dynamic. That's especially true with AI, which has the potential to disrupt itself, as evidenced by its ability to write software code, including AI code. So it can feed on itself, with the new code eating the old, making it obsolete very quickly. The pace of obsolescence seems to be moving at warp speed for both AI hardware and software, particularly

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: 10 Reasons To Remain Optimistic About The US Economy

Feb 15, 2026 7 min read paid

The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated February 9, 2026. Roaring 2020s II: Refresher Course. There are 10 good reasons for our optimistic update of the outlooks for real GDP and S&P 500 companies’ earnings in 2026. Without further ado, here they are: (1) Roaring consumer spending. Many taxpayers are expected to see significant refunds this tax season. Early estimates from the Treasury Department suggest

Ed Yardeni

AI Immunity Trade Strikes Again

Feb 12, 2026 4 min read

I. From Digital Back To Analog The “AI Immunity Trade” has caused more casualties in the stock market. It started with selloffs in software and private credit stocks at the beginning of the year. Since then, it has hit wealth managers, insurance brokerage, tax preparation, accounting services, professional data, and legal research. Today, it pummeled office REITs, trucking, and logistics stocks. Investors are scrambling to get out of the digital

Ed Yardeni

Desperately Seeking AI Immunity ... January's Pleasant Jobs Surprise

Feb 11, 2026 4 min read paid

I. AI Immunity Is The New AI Trade After ChatGPT was released on November 30, 2022, investors scrambled to overweight the AI trade, mostly by overweighting the Magnificent-7 (chart). That worked out great until the DeepSeek surprise on January 20, 2025. The AI trade made a big comeback on April 9, 2025, when President Donald Trump postponed his "Liberation Day" tariffs, and after datacenter hyperscalers reiterated their commitment

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: 10 Roaring Reasons To Remain Optimistic

Feb 11, 2026 1 min read paid

Annual real GDP growth averaged 3.6% during the second half of the 1900s versus just 2.1% since 2000. Dr Ed projects a return to 3.6% or higher over the remainder of the “Roaring 2020s” and into the “Roaring 2030s.” Today, he discusses 10 reasons for his bullishness on the outlooks for both the US economy and S&P 500 companies’ earnings. These include robust consumer spending

Ed Yardeni

AI Disrupts Financials. Bad Data Misleads On Economy.

Feb 10, 2026 3 min read paid

AI is an extremely disruptive technology. It has already turned on its masters: The software stocks have been pounded by fears that AI will make coders redundant (chart). Now it is turning on the financial industry. The most direct hit today comes from news that Altruist, a wealth management startup, has launched new AI-enabled tax planning features. This has sparked a "sell first, ask questions later" reaction among

Ed Yardeni

Emerging Markets Continuing To Emerge

Feb 9, 2026 3 min read paid

The US MSCI continues to underperform in the global stock market derby as it did last year (chart). Does this mean that American exceptionalism, which was touted as recently as 2024, is kaput? Is this another sign of de-dollarization? We don't think so. America remains exceptional, and foreigners continue to invest in the US. However, there are plenty of exceptional companies overseas that have also attracted global investors.

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: February 9-13

Feb 8, 2026 3 min read

As the polar vortex generates arctic blasts around the US, things are about to heat up on the economic data front. The week ahead includes arguably the two most consequential releases with respect to the outlook for Federal Reserve policy—January's employment and CPI reports. Thanks to recent government shutdowns, the employment (Wed) and CPI (Fri) releases are unusually close together. The jobs report is especially important, as

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Dow At 70,000 By 2029

Feb 7, 2026 4 min read

"Through the roof." That's how Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang described AI infrastructure spending in his excellent interview with Scott Wapner on CNBC this past Friday, February 6. Huang described the current landscape as a "once-in-a-generation infrastructure buildout," specifically highlighting that demand for Nvidia's Blackwell chips and the upcoming Vera Rubin platform is "sky-high." He emphasized that the shift

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Meet Kevin Warsh

Feb 7, 2026 10 min read paid

Excerpt from the February 2 Morning Briefing of Yardeni Research. The Fed I: Direct From Central Casting I spent the weekend reading up on Kevin Warsh, who will replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair in May. My friends at the Financial Times asked me to write an 800-word op-ed on him. Sharing those thoughts with readers here leaves me with plenty of additional space to elaborate on what I have

Ed Yardeni

Mini Tech Wreck Or Repeat Of The Big One?

Feb 6, 2026 3 min read paid

Is the sharp selloff in technology stocks this week the beginning of a Tech Wreck comparable to what happened from 2000 through 2002, when the tech bubble of the late 1990s burst and caused a recession (chart)? We doubt it because this time, the industry has many more profitable companies benefiting from the enormous capital spending on AI infrastructure by hyperscalers, including Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft. Collectively, these three companies

Ed Yardeni

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