In a scant three months, FOMC members moved from a unanimous hold to a unanimous hike, raising the federal funds rate by 25bps and suggesting more of the same to come. President Trump, preferring rates be slashed, blamed everyone on the FOMC except Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Today, Ed and Elias examine what motivated the September decision and Warsh’s role in it. He had argued all summer that conditions were ripe for a rate hike: The economy was resilient, with a full-employment labor market and financial conditions not restrictive, while inflation was a problem. By September, the Committee at large concurred. … We expect one or two more rate hikes this year.
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