Video Webcasts

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Bond Yields On The Spectrum: From Good To Ugly (with special guest Nick Raich)

Oct 7, 2026 1 min read paid

Is the bond selloff the Revenge of the Bond Vigilantes, i.e., a looming debt crisis? Not yet. Despite the recent surge, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below the growth rate of nominal GDP. That points toward an upward repricing of the neutral interest rate. Ed and Elias examine the spectrum of forces behind higher yields, from rising R* to a potential debt-crisis scenario. The real warning sign

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: On Inflation, Capital Spending & Economic Resilience

Sep 30, 2026 1 min read paid

Today, Ed and Elias take a deep dive into core inflation, i.e., minus volatile food and energy prices. The Fed’s preferred measure, the core PCED, justifies tightening monetary policy—both the recent September rate hike and presumably future ones provided that underlying inflation remains elevated. … The alternative measure, the core CPI, is structured differently, causing it to diverge from the core PCED in response to price changes in

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: All About The Fed, The Economy & Inflation

Sep 23, 2026 1 min read paid

In a scant three months, FOMC members moved from a unanimous hold to a unanimous hike, raising the federal funds rate by 25bps and suggesting more of the same to come. President Trump, preferring rates be slashed, blamed everyone on the FOMC except Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Today, Ed and Elias examine what motivated the September decision and Warsh’s role in it. He had argued all summer that conditions

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Worry List Is Growing More Worrisome

Sep 16, 2026 1 min read paid

We’re still strong believers in our Roaring 2020s scenario, hinging on a productivity boom that strengthens economic growth even as it contains inflation. However, we’ve shaved the subjective odds that we ascribe to that scenario from 80% to 70% and now see a 30% chance that rising geopolitical and other risks could derail it. Today, Ed and Elias update our deepened worry list, detailing the concerning prospects, as

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Warsh World

Sep 2, 2026 1 min read paid

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh isn’t one to give the markets a heads-up. Investors are trying to translate what he says into what he would like the Fed to do. To that end, Ed and Elias parse Warsh’s remarks last week at the Jackson Hole symposium. While Warsh’s assessment of economic conditions is hawkish, is it just hawkish squawk or indicative of his vote at September’s

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Trump Threatens Military Action Against The Bond Vigilantes

Aug 26, 2026 1 min read paid

The Bond Vigilantes have driven up Treasury bond yields recently, thundering onto the scene in alarm over the government’s huge borrowing needs, record corporate bond issuance, three inflationary supply shocks, a cloudy Fed path, resilient nominal GDP growth, a higher neutral interest rate, and a fragile yen. On the flip side, the Trump administration is determined to keep yields tethered—one way or another. Also holding yields in check

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Hawks Versus Owls At The Fed

Aug 19, 2026 1 min read paid

Today, Ed and Elias share bird’s eye views of the economy from the perches of the hawks and owls on the Fed. The hawks may favor tightening at the FOMC’s September meeting, unconvinced that inflation is on a steady flight path down to the Fed’s 2.0% target. The owls are more confident of inflation’s downward course. July’s subdued inflation readings support their case for

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Does The Jobs Report Change Anything?

Aug 12, 2026 1 min read paid

The Fed’s monetary policy mandate requires consideration of both inflation and labor market conditions. If the former compels a rate hike next month, would the latter stand in the way? That’s the question of the hour after last week’s jobs report, with a headline that telegraphed “weakness.” Elias and Ed argue that the headline numbers looked deceptively weak because of calendar effects and World Cup related distortions.

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: GDP Growth Is AI-Powered & G-Shaped (Not K-Shaped)

Aug 5, 2026 1 min read paid

Looking solely at Q2’s GDP growth rate, one would think the economy is weakening. Not so, say Ed and Elias. In fact, demand of all types strengthened last quarter, buoyed by brisk consumer spending, thanks to the Baby Boomers, and brisk business investment, thanks to the AI boom. The lower GDP growth rate was a function of surging imports, which aren’t bad news. Imports often rise in response

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Fed Rate Hike Still On The Table

Jul 22, 2026 1 min read paid

Neither the Fed’s dual mandate nor its official 2% inflation target have changed. But from what Kevin Warsh has said since assuming the role of Fed chief in May, his priority appears to be the inflation side of the dual mandate and his target may be underlying inflation rather the PCED inflation rate. Today, Ed and Elias look at the ramifications of such a potential shift in the Fed’

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Warsh’s Tasks

Jul 15, 2026 1 min read paid

The AI boom is fueling the Fed’s hawkishness, as Ed and Elias agree it should, since it’s also fueling inflation currently. Yet Fed Chair Warsh asserted at his confirmation hearing that AI is a disinflationary force. They agree with that as well: It is disinflationary over the long term, which is the crux of our Roaring 2020s economic thesis; but paradoxically, AI is escalating inflation now as rapid

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Making Sense Of A Strange Jobs Report

Jul 8, 2026 1 min read paid

The June jobs report was widely characterized as weak. Ed and Elias don’t see it that way. The disappointing headline gain reflected a misleading statistical distortion. June’s decline in Leisure & Hospitality was attributable to an early Memorial Day, which boosted May’s gain. With the support of multiple underlying strengths, the labor market remains resilient, as demand slightly exceeds supply. The Fed’s tightening bias—prioritizing its

Ed Yardeni

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