Video Webcasts

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Bond Vigilantes Welcome New Fed Chair Warsh With Loud Bronx Cheer

May 20, 2026 1 min read paid

The financial markets expect interest rates to remain higher for longer, notwithstanding President Trump's demands that Kevin Warsh, newly instated as Fed chief, get rates down. But the macroeconomic backdrop no longer supports an easing bias, let alone a rate cut. Paradoxically, Elias and Ed explain, a more hawkish Warsh than investors expect would actually work in Trump's favor via its downward effect on long-term Treasury

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Sweet Spot For The Labor Market

May 13, 2026 1 min read paid

April’s employment report had lots of good news for the labor market. Ed & Elias discuss some of the news that seemed to be bad but really wasn’t on closer inspection. In their view, the April jobs report amounts to a vote of confidence in the narrative that the labor market is stabilizing and may even be improving without boosting inflation. Meanwhile, retiring Baby Boomers are weighing on

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Consumers Still Doing What They Do Best

May 6, 2026 1 min read paid

Consumer spending is the single biggest driver of US GDP growth, and its remarkable resilience despite lackluster income growth contributes mightily to the resilience of the US economy broadly. Today, Ed and Elias explain why consumer spending has seemed to defy economic gravity and why it should continue to do so. The short answer: our “gen-shaped economy,” shaped by generational dynamics as the Baby Boomers move through life’s phases.

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: The Oil Shock & Inflation

Apr 29, 2026 1 min read paid

Why hasn’t the price of Brent crude oil gone through the roof despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 28? Ed and Elias explain the anomalous price action. … Also: Why US oil producers aren’t pumped enough by higher energy prices to save the day. … And: How the energy supply crisis is likely to feed into inflation, not just via higher gasoline and fuel prices but

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Debating Warsh

Apr 22, 2026 1 min read paid

Kevin Warsh, the probable next Fed chair, wants to lower the federal funds rate sooner rather than later. Few FOMC members agree with him. Ed and Elias don’t either. Today, they explain why Warsh’s case for lower rates is fundamentally flawed. It rests on the economic dogma that, because the labor share of National Income is declining amid an AI-fueled productivity boom, the theoretical neutral federal funds rate,

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: On US Profits, Consumers & Inflation

Apr 15, 2026 1 min read paid

With the US economy producing record-breaking earnings and margins, Dr Ed and Elias wouldn’t be surprised to see employment pick up despite AI adoption and other factors holding it back. … They also expect consumer spending to remain resiliently robust even though income growth isn’t keeping up, which is depressing the saving rate. But not even a negative saving rate—which may occur—would tank consumer spending in today’

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Anatomy Of The US Labor Market

Apr 8, 2026 1 min read paid

Last week's employment report was widely interpreted as good because jobs growth rebounded and the unemployment rate dropped. Dr Ed and Elias disagree. Our inflation-adjusted Earned Income Proxy fell as inflation surged, a bad sign. Moreover, the jobs growth required to keep unemployment stable (the "breakeven rate") has collapsed, so a dropping unemployment rate must be evaluated in that context. Both labor supply and labor demand

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Bond Vigilantes Are Mobilizing Globally

Apr 1, 2026 1 min read paid

The unprecedented oil-supply shock caused by war in the Middle East has crushed investors’ former expectations for subdued inflation and dovish central banks’ actions. The Bond Vigilantes are repricing yield curves worldwide, especially at the short end, in some economies more than others. Today, Dr Ed and our new contributing editor Elias Griepentrog analyze what global yield-curve spreads imply about investors’ new expectations, opining that the front end of the

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: From Powell To Warsh

Mar 25, 2026 1 min read paid

Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Powell, no doubt will lean toward dovish policy-making, under pressure from the President to convince the rest of the FOMC to err on the side of easing. But the timing of Warsh’s confirmation is uncertain. Today, Dr Ed along with our new contributing editor Elias Griepentrog take us on a thought experiment: Under three alternative scenarios for the length

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Is Less Dire Strait Easing Market Fears? (with special guest Eric Wallerstein)

Mar 18, 2026 1 min read paid

The energy and financial markets are taking the war in the Middle East remarkably well, all things considered. Investors seem to believe that the war will be short-lived and perhaps are focusing on the bright side: The lost physical supplies of oil are maybe half as much as they could have been, partly because Iran is still allowing tankers from friendly nations to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Today,

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Between Iran & A Hard Place

Mar 11, 2026 1 min read paid

With the US suddenly thick in the fog of war, Dr Ed discusses the collateral effects on the US economy and stock market. Spiking oil prices may precipitate a stock market correction rather than a bear market, but the latter is possible. The Roaring 2020s remains Dr Ed’s base-case outlook for the rest of this year with subjective odds unchanged at 60%. But there’s now much less chance

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Another Regime Alteration

Mar 4, 2026 1 min read paid

Saturday’s military attack on Iran by the US and Israel that killed Iran’s leader and 40 top officials is likely to push oil prices higher this week. However, in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire. In any event, the attack also incapacitated Iran’s navy, so the threat of a blocked Strait of Hormuz has been greatly reduced. This is

Ed Yardeni

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