Toby Hearst

Semiconductors Are Still Cyclical, But With A Bullish Long-Term Trend

Nov 9, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Semis Cycle Historically, the semiconductor industry has been notoriously cyclical. When chip demand outpaces supply, shortages boost prices; higher prices in turn slow demand. High prices boost profit margins and stimulate manufacturers to expand capacity. As demand moderates and new supply comes online, pricing power weakens, and earnings growth slows or even turns negative. In other words, the best cure for high chip prices is high chip prices. The

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Information Technology, Industrials & Utilities

Nov 8, 2026 4 min read paid

Last Thursday’s selloff in the stock market was an AI selloff. Investors dumped companies that build, wire, and power data centers, following the Democrats' sweep of Congress amid voter hostility toward new facilities. Stocks recovered some ground on Friday. October payrolls rose by 165,000, beating expectations of 65,000. Still, the S&P 500 ended the week down 2.7%, and Information Technology (MW) fell 6.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Air Coming Out Of AI Bubble

Nov 8, 2026 4 min read paid

The AI selloff went global last week. In the US, Democrats swept Congress in the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, surfing on a huge wave of voter hostility toward new data centers. On Thursday, investors dumped the AI trade worldwide, and Asia’s chipmakers took the brunt of the wipeout. Overseas earnings are still climbing, but valuations keep falling. We see the AI backlash as a speed bump, not

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 9-13

Nov 7, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 fell 2.7% last week, and the Nasdaq dropped 4.9%, both posting their fourth straight week of losses. Thursday’s 4.4% plunge in the S&P 500, its worst day since April 2025, came as investors weighed what the Democratic sweep of Congress means for the AI data center buildout. Both indexes rebounded Friday on strong jobs data, with the S&

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKETS CALL: S&P 500 Valuation Dives As Earnings Soar

Nov 7, 2026 5 min read

The stock market dived last week. Investors priced in political backlash against data centers after Democrats swept Congress. We anticipated buying opportunities after the midterm elections, and Thursday’s selloff delivered some. This remains an earnings-led bull market. Valuations are falling while earnings are soaring. We still view the AI backlash as another speed bump, not a roadblock. We are sticking with our 7,900 year-end target for

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Technology & Health Care

Nov 1, 2026 4 min read paid

Momentum returned to the AI trade early last week. Anthropic’s IPO filing on Monday revealed a far more profitable business than investors had expected, and the AI trade rallied. SK Hynix added to it with blockbuster results overnight Tuesday. Then the trade unraveled. Alphabet’s earnings disappointed on Wednesday, and Intel’s report triggered a chip rout on Friday. The Nasdaq fell 2.9% on the day. Intel plunged

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Government Bond Yields Ease, Gold Falls

Nov 1, 2026 5 min read paid

Investors sought safety in government bonds last week as the AI selloff rattled stock markets worldwide. Yields eased across most of the major bond markets. The stock market selloff has been hardest on the markets that soared the most this year. October is ending with the US well ahead of the rest of the world. That validates our recent shift to market weight on the Go Global portfolio strategy. Here’

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 2-6

Oct 31, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 fell 0.6% last week, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.0%, both posting their third straight week of losses, as disappointing tech earnings revived concerns about AI-related spending. The FOMC held the federal funds rate (FFR) at 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote, with the dissenters favoring a 25bps hike. We believe the committee needs another 50bps of increases

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: AI Spooking Investors

Oct 31, 2026 5 min read

I. Stock Market Performance Happy Halloween! Kids are enjoying the spooky cultural holiday today. The celebration evolved from ancient Celtic harvest festivals tied to All Hallows' Eve into the secular traditions of costumes, parties, and trick-or-treating that we know today. Investors have been spooked about the AI trade since the S&P 500 peaked at a record high of 7818.93 on October 6 (chart). The

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Communication Services, Materials & Energy

Oct 25, 2026 5 min read paid

Investors spent the week worrying about an AI bubble. The S&P 500 slipped by 0.5%, led by a 6.2% drop in Communication Services (MW), which was the worst-performing S&P 500 sector (table). Yet, Information Technology fell just 0.3%. Energy (OW) led the winning sectors with a 1.6% gain, followed by Health Care (OW), up 1.5%. Bubbles inflate valuation multiples. This

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Bond Yields Ease

Oct 25, 2026 4 min read paid

Bond yields eased in most major markets last week, but France was the glaring exception. In stocks, the global AI selloff kept hitting the equities markets that had gained the most this year, putting the US back ahead of the All Country World ex-US ytd. That supports our downgrade last week of Go Global to market weight, though the fundamental case for overseas stocks remains strong. Here's

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 26-30

Oct 24, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 fell 0.5% last week, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.7%, both posting second straight weekly losses. The Nasdaq’s 2.9% slide on Thursday was its biggest one-day drop since June, as concerns flared over the cost and availability of financial capital for AI investment. The price of WTI crude topped $100 a barrel amid US-Iran conflict concerns, while the 10-year

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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