Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 15-19

Jun 13, 2026 3 min read

The week ahead is dominated by the Fed. Kevin Warsh delivers his first press conference as Fed chair on Wednesday, right after the FOMC releases its policy statement and its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes the Dot Plot showing meeting participants’ forecasts for the federal funds rate. We expect the Fed to abandon its easing bias and pivot toward a tightening bias. The ECB raised its official rate

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Roaring 2020s Rockets To Mars & Beyond

Jun 13, 2026 4 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MATERIALS: Small Weight, Big Growth

Jun 8, 2026 4 min read paid

We recommend overweighting the S&P 500 Materials sector. The sector accounts for just 1.9% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, so an overweight is cheap to implement, the same logic we applied to our Energy sector recommendation on April 20. S&P 500 Materials is up 9.9% ytd, fifth behind Energy, Information Technology, Industrials, and Real Estate. The stock price index

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: 'Go Global' Getting Fried By Rising Fed Rate Hike Expectations

Jun 7, 2026 4 min read paid

Hot US data are pulling capital flows back home. The US share of the All Country World (ACW) MSCI is at 63.7%, well off the early-2025 peak of 67.4% but firming again. Europe’s share has slipped to 13.8% and Japan’s to 5.0% (chart). Emerging Markets’ share, at 12.3%, is near its cycle high. The ratio of the US MSCI to the ACW

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: June Swoon!

Jun 7, 2026 4 min read paid

On Wednesday, June 3, we titled our QuickTakes "June Swoon?" As it turned out, the question mark should have been an exclamation mark. On Friday, June 5, stocks swooned unmistakably. The S&P 500 closed at 7,383.74, down 2.64%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 equal-weight indexes fell 4.77% and 1.45%, respectively. The catalyst was a stronger-than-expected payroll

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 8-12

Jun 7, 2026 4 min read

The week ahead is dominated by inflation prints. The May CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) top the calendar. From a consumer perspective, we will also see the NY Fed's consumer inflation expectations survey (Mon) and the University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment release (Fri). The “Federal Open Mouth Committee” is in the blackout period ahead of next week's committee meeting—i.e., the talking Fed heads

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Is There Enough IPO Money On Planet Earth To Fund SpaceX?

Jun 1, 2026 4 min read

The mega IPOs are coming. SpaceX is set to go public on June 12, raising $75 billion to $80 billion at a market valuation of up to $1.8 trillion. It will be the largest equity offering in history. Then, Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to go public with market capitalizations of $1 trillion to $1.75 trillion each. Fears are mounting that the "AI-3" IPOs will

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst
Joe Abbott

CONSUMER STAPLES: High P/E With Low Earnings Growth

May 31, 2026 4 min read paid

We recommend an underweight position in the S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector. At first glance, the sector looks fine. Its stock price index is near a record high (chart). Consumer Staples could turn out to be a haven if AI exuberance is fueling a tech bubble that bursts. On the other hand, Consumer Staples is up 6.5% ytd, ranking 7th among the 11 S&P 500

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: 'Go Global' Should Outperform When Strait Reopens

May 31, 2026 4 min read paid

Our call to Go Global rather than Stay Home has paid off so far this year, despite the latest war in the Middle East, which boosted Stay Home, especially in March. However, Go Global was mostly driven by the AI trade in South Korea and Taiwan. The Emerging Markets MSCI ETF (EEM) is up 25.4% ytd against 10.9% for the S&P 500. Moreover, we recommended staying

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: JUNE 1-5

May 30, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 climbed to another record high on Friday, closing at 7,580.05. Fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) and falling oil prices boosted stock prices. Brent crude settled at $92.05 a barrel, the lowest weekly close since April 17. Axios reports that the US and Iran have reached a ceasefire-extension deal, pending President Trump's approval. The odds that the US blockade of the

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: FEMO-Driven Stock Market Meltup

May 30, 2026 5 min read

As stock prices continue to soar, fears of an AI bubble are increasing. The tech bubble of the 1990s was driven by fear of missing out (FOMO). This time, fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) is driving tech stock prices higher. An earnings-led meltup like this should be more sustainable than a P/E-led meltup fueled by irrational exuberance. That’s especially true of FEMO meltups, like this one, that

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

May 27, 2026 5 min read paid

The bull case for the stock market remains intact. The S&P 500 rose to yet another record high today. The economy and the labor market remain resilient. Consumers are spending. The AI boom is boosting capital spending. Corporate earnings are soaring on strong revenues growth and higher profit margins. The odds of a recession in 2026 fell to 19% today, the lowest reading of the year (chart). Stock

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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