Toby Hearst

Thanks For The Memories

Oct 1, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Micron and the AI Trade Memory has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI spending boom. Micron’s stock, for example, is up 273.2% ytd, second only to SanDisk among the semiconductor companies. We have been bullish on memory, and Micron’s fiscal Q4-2026 results reinforced our view. Revenue surged 379% y/y to a record $54.2 billion, above the $50.8 billion consensus.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst
Elias Griepentrog

US SECTORS CALL: Semiconductors, Utilities & Materials

Sep 27, 2026 5 min read paid

Stocks opened last week with a big rally. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% on Monday, and the Nasdaq closed at a record high as oil prices and bond yields fell. The reprieve didn't last. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.17% by Friday's close, its highest level since 2007. The S&P 500 still finished the week up 1.2%

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 28 - October 2

Sep 27, 2026 4 min read

The week ahead is jam-packed with labor market data releases, capped off by September's employment report (Fri). August's PCED and the third estimate of Q2 GDP arrive Wednesday, along with BEA's annual revisions, followed by ISM's M-PMI on Thursday. FedSpeak continues, with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Governor Lisa Cook, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari,

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Interest Rates Are Troubling

Sep 26, 2026 4 min read

I. Global Economy The global economy has been surprisingly resilient so far this year. There were dips earlier this year, when the Middle East war was in full swing; but in recent months, global industrial production and exports have rebounded to their record highs from before the war (chart). The All Country World MSCI forward revenues per share has continued to soar to record highs this year (chart). The All

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKETS CALL: Invasion Of The Bond Vigilante Algorithms

Sep 26, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Credit Last week's events confirm our "Proceed With Caution" call in September 15's QuickTakes. The main event was the jump in the 10-year US Treasury yield above 5.00% to an intraday high of 5.22% on Friday (chart). At the end of the day, it closed lower, at 5.18%, after news that Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Tech Is Top Dog Again As Investors Conclude It Is Cheap

Sep 21, 2026 4 min read paid

There was lots worrying investors last week, and there still is. But the stock market has a habit of climbing a wall of worry. It seems to be doing so now. Investors have been watching analysts raising their earnings expectations faster than stock prices have been rising (chart). As a result, stocks have gotten cheaper, assuming that analysts' exuberant earnings expectations are rational. Investors may be coming around, gaining

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Financials, Communication Services & Industrials

Sep 20, 2026 5 min read paid

Two shocks hit the stock market last week. On Monday, the heads of the major AI labs called for slowing the development of frontier models, and chip stocks sold off hard. On Wednesday, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023, and the updated Dot Plot points to one more this year. The S&P 500 fell

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Stocks Weathering Storm In Bonds

Sep 20, 2026 4 min read paid

Central banks in the US, Europe, and Japan all raised their policy rates over the last two weeks. Bond yields are rising nearly everywhere. Neither development has broken the global stock bull market, as earnings forecasts keep getting marked up. The Stay Home and Go Global investment strategies have been tracking each other fairly closely in recent months, with limited dispersion between the two. The divergence instead has been across

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 21 - 25

Sep 20, 2026 4 min read

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps on Wednesday, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The vote was unanimous. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cited stronger growth, insufficient progress on inflation, and rising geopolitical risk as reasons for the move. The Fed's updated projections show inflation not returning fully to target until 2029, while growth and employment forecasts improved. Global bond yields

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Investors Curbing Their Enthusiasm As Less FOMO Offsets More FEMO

Sep 19, 2026 5 min read

I. Curbing Our Enthusiasm Last week on Tuesday, we pushed our 8,400 year-end target for the S&P 500 to mid-2027. Our new year-end target is 7,900. We remain confident in the resilience of both the economy and S&P 500 companies’ earnings per share (EPS). On the other hand, we think recent developments may weigh on their stocks’ valuation multiples for the

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Energy, Information Technology & Health Care

Sep 13, 2026 5 min read paid

Rising bond yields and oil prices weighed on stocks last week, though a mostly in-line CPI report on Friday sparked a rebound. The S&P 500 still fell 0.8%, with nine of the 11 sectors declining. Energy (OW) led, rising 2.0%, and it tops the sector derby at 44.5% ytd. Communication Services (MW) was the only other gainer, up 1.1%. Health Care (OW) fell

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Will The Bull Market Survive Higher Oil Prices & Bond Yields?