Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Animal Spirits Are Back

Apr 19, 2026 4 min read paid

When Kaiser Wilhelm II's Germany and Tsar Nicholas II's Russia squared off in the summer of 1914, the London Stock Exchange closed for five months. The New York Stock Exchange shut for four months. Investors assumed a continental war would be a calamity. World War I was a calamity for sure. However, by 1915, the NYSE had reopened, and the DJIA more than doubled by late

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

INDUSTRIALS: Earnings & P/E Multiples Boosted By Booming AI, Onshoring & Defense Spending

Apr 18, 2026 4 min read

We continue to recommend overweighting the Industrials sectors in the S&P 500, the S&P 400, and the S&P 600. Granted, their valuation multiples are high, but so are their earnings growth rates. The sector's three major indexes all remain on solid uptrends that started in 2022 (chart). The S&P 500 Industrials sector is up 11.9% ytd, the third-best performing

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 20-24

Apr 18, 2026 3 min read

The week starts with the Strait of Hormuz still the key risk for financial markets. Today, Iranian state media said the Strait has been closed again because the US “did not fulfill their obligations.” Iran had declared it was open on Friday. A renewed US diplomatic push could send senior officials back to talks as early as Monday, but no date has been finalized, and the situation remains fluid. In

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Yogi Was Right: 'The War Ain't Over Till It's Over'

Apr 12, 2026 3 min read paid

In his seminal work, On War (1832), Carl von Clausewitz famously wrote: "War is the continuation of politics by other means." The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire in their war and to talks seeking a diplomatic solution. However, their talks failed, and now they are both resuming the war. On Sunday, US Central Command said the Navy will blockade all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 13-17

Apr 12, 2026 3 min read

The unresolved Middle East conflict will remain center stage this week. It is having an immediate impact on energy prices in the United States. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will push prices up again at the start of the week. The impact on the US inflation pipeline remains the dominant macroeconomic theme, ahead of Tuesday's March PPI release. A relatively quiet week on the economic

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

FINANCIALS: Private Credit Fears Creating Attractive Values

Apr 11, 2026 3 min read

The big money center banks will report their Q1 earnings this coming week. They are included in the S&P 500 Financials sector, which has been the worst-performing one in the S&P 500 this year to date, down 7.3% through April 10, compared with a broadly flat market over this period (chart). One of the major culprits is the gathering storm in private credit. It has

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: The Tug Of War Between P/E And E

Apr 5, 2026 5 min read paid

Last Monday saw the S&P 500 down 9.1% from its January 27 high, which we believe marks the trough of the latest pullback, for now. That was our call on Tuesday. The next two days could make or break our call. Today, President Donald Trump issued a final, profanely worded ultimatum, setting a firm deadline for what he is calling "Power Plant Day." He specified

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 6-10

Apr 5, 2026 3 min read

This week will continue to be dominated by developments in the Middle East, though a heavy slate of data releases—including the FOMC March Minutes, February personal income, and March CPI—will compete for attention. President Trump confirmed Wednesday night that the United States could conclude its involvement in the Iran War within two to three weeks, providing an exit ramp from a conflict that has roiled energy markets since

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

The War, The Yield Curve, The Fed, Private Credit, and Gold

Mar 30, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The War Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian general and military theorist, famously observed that "war is a mere continuation of politics by other means." He argued that war is never an end in itself. Instead, it is a tool used by states to achieve a specific political objective. Therefore, the military strategy must always be subordinate to the political goal. If the political aim changes, the military

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Stock P/Es Discounting Higher-For-Longer Oil Prices & Interest Rates

Mar 29, 2026 5 min read paid

The fog of war is getting thicker because of the likelihood of US boots on the ground (the "bog of war"). The US Department of War has deployed 15,000 troops to the war zone, raising the risks of a longer war and more American casualties, which will cause an uproar in the US. On Tuesday, March 3, we wrote: "We've been expecting a pullback

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 30-April 3

Mar 29, 2026 4 min read

This week will continue to be dominated by developments in the Middle East. On Friday, the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and steel facilities, with Iran retaliating across the Persian Gulf, while President Trump pushed back a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face further attacks on its power infrastructure. The escalation marked a sharp shift in tone from earlier in the week, when the

Toby Hearst
Ed Yardeni

Thanks For The Memory

Mar 23, 2026 4 min read paid

We are taking a break from the war. We may wait until Friday to update our views on its likely impact on the global economy and financial markets. This morning, President Donald Trump triggered a relief rally in the stock market by postponing his threatened attack on Iran's power plants, scheduled for today, until the end of the week. He added that the US is negotiating with Iran.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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