Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Tech Wrecked, Health Care & Staples Rally

Oct 18, 2026 4 min read paid

The S&P 500 fell 2.0% this week, and Information Technology (MW) took the biggest hit. The sector fell 6.4%, the worst of the 11 sectors (chart). The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell 11.8%. Credit worries spread to AI infrastructure. CoreWeave fell 25% last week. Its worst day was Wednesday, when it sank 15% as its bond yields soared. It was the IT sector's

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 19 - 23

Oct 18, 2026 4 min read

Last week’s inflation reports came in hot. September’s CPI rose 0.6% m/m, lifting headline inflation from 3.4% y/y in August to 3.7%. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, taking its y/y rate from 2.4% to 2.6%. Both topped expectations. PPI final demand jumped 1.3% m/m. That pushed its y/y rate to 6.3%, the highest since

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Downgrading 'Go Global' To Market Weight

Oct 18, 2026 4 min read paid

We are downgrading the “Go Global” portfolio strategy from overweight to market weight and raising “Stay Home” (in the US) from underweight to market weight. Overseas earnings remain impressive, but the rallies in emerging market economies’ stock markets have been led by just a handful of AI-related stocks. Last week's rout in South Korea showed how vulnerable such concentration leaves these stock markets. Additionally, European economies look

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Yes, AI Is Too Big To Fail

Oct 17, 2026 5 min read

I. Bonds We've all been suffering from AI fatigue for a while. The daily news about it has been head-spinning. We've been warned that AI is a bubble that will burst, just as the late-1990s tech bubble led to the Tech Wreck in the early 2000s. Analogies to the credit excesses of the Great Financial Crisis have also been proffered. Last week's

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

S&P 500 SECTORS CALL: More Green On The Screen

Oct 11, 2026 4 min read paid

Bond yields edged down last week. As a result, the S&P 500 edged up, led by interest-rate-sensitive sectors. The AI-related sectors Industrials (-0.4%) and Information Technology (-0.3%) edged down and in fact were the only down sectors last week. The big interest-rate-sensitive gainers were Consumer Staples (4.0%), Utilities (3.9%), Consumer Discretionary (3.1%), and Financials (2.3%). The year&

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: French Toast & Brazilian Bossa Nova

Oct 10, 2026 4 min read

I. Bonds The global bond market remains jittery, though yields may be starting to stabilize after their rout in recent months (chart). Nevertheless, geopolitical turbulence may still buffet them. Yields have risen for an assortment of reasons, from better-than-expected economic growth (US) to fiscal instability concerns (France). Brazil and China are the only major countries showing declines in bond yields so far this year (chart). Bond yields have

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKETS CALL: Is The 10-Year Bond Yield Back To The Old Normal?

Oct 10, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Bonds The Economist just rang the all-clear siren for the bond market (chart). It is safe to buy bonds now that the front cover of the October 10 magazine is titled "Will bonds blow up?" This and other national magazines’ cover stories often have been great contrary indicators. It’s the “front-page curse” (once magazines put in the time it takes them to produce a

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary & Consumer Staples

Oct 4, 2026 4 min read paid

The S&P 500 fell 0.3% last week. Energy (OW) and Information Technology (MW) led the week’s sector performance derby, both up 1.4%. Utilities (MW) was the only other gainer, up 0.7%. Health Care (OW) was the weakest at -2.7%, followed by Financials (OW) at -2.5%. On a ytd basis, Energy is up 40.4%, the best of the 11 sectors, and IT

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Bond Vigilantes Gone Wild

Oct 4, 2026 5 min read paid

The Bond Vigilantes have gone wild worldwide, pushing government bond yields higher in developed and emerging markets alike. A month ago, we asked whether rising yields reflected stronger growth, higher inflation, or looming fiscal crises. We still think the answer is mostly growth. The exception is where government finances are weakest. There, bond investors are charging a fiscal-risk premium. France may be on the verge of a full-blown

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 5-9

Oct 4, 2026 4 min read

Most of last week's economic indicator reports were strong: Initial jobless claims fell to near a 57-year low, ADP private payrolls rose 90,000 in September, and the ISM M-PMI was in expansion for a ninth straight month. Friday's employment report was the exception. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 in September, well below expectations, while July and August were revised down by a

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Stocks Ignoring Bonds, For Now

Oct 3, 2026 5 min read

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has climbed above 5.25%, and the S&P 500 hasn’t flinched. The stock index is just 2.2% below our year-end target of 7,900. It could overshoot our target in the coming days now that crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf producers reportedly are averaging around 98% of pre-war totals, excluding Iran. Producers and shippers have

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Thanks For The Memories

Oct 1, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Micron and the AI Trade Memory has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI spending boom. Micron’s stock, for example, is up 273.2% ytd, second only to SanDisk among the semiconductor companies. We have been bullish on memory, and Micron’s fiscal Q4-2026 results reinforced our view. Revenue surged 379% y/y to a record $54.2 billion, above the $50.8 billion consensus.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst
Elias Griepentrog

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