Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Still Targeting 8400, But Raising Odds Of Bearish Outcome To 30%

Sep 12, 2026 5 min read

I. Performance The good news is that our recommendation to overweight the S&P 500 Energy sector is working well (chart). The bad news is that it is doing so because the war in the Middle East has re-escalated. Saudi Arabia has shut down its East-West pipeline as a precaution after a drone attack that originated in Iraq. The pipeline had been moving 4 million to 5

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 7-11

Sep 7, 2026 3 min read

August payroll employment jumped 162,000, a sharp reversal from July's decline, while the August unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Those numbers reinforce our view that the labor market remains solid, so the Fed has little reason to delay a rate hike. The federal funds futures market now prices a 59% chance of a hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, up from roughly 50/

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Financials, Real Estate & Utilities

Sep 7, 2026 4 min read paid

Energy (OW) led the S&P 500 sectors again last week, up 2.3% as the price of Brent crude rose back above $95 a barrel. The sector is now up 41.6% ytd, the best of all sectors (chart). Information Technology (MW) rose 1.1% wtd, with Dell stealing the headlines. The performances of the rate-sensitive sectors were mixed: Utilities (OW) rose 0.7%, while Real Estate

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: More Fabulous Earnings Momentum

Sep 6, 2026 4 min read paid

The Fed might or might not raise the federal funds rate this month. The war in the Middle East may or may not be over (and isn't even a war anymore, says VP JD Vance). A debt crisis may be imminent, or not. The Republicans will probably lose the House in the midterms, or maybe not. Putin may or may not invade NATO. Trump might embargo US trade

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Still A Worldwide Bull Market

Sep 6, 2026 4 min read

Stock prices continue to rise worldwide. A run of central bank meetings over the coming weeks will test whether equity composure holds. Bond yields are also rising worldwide. The question is whether that reflects better-than-expected economic growth, higher-than-expected inflation, and/or looming fiscal debt crises. Equities are voting for growth. We are too. Here's more: I. Global Stock Markets The US-to-Developed World

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Information Technology, Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Aug 30, 2026 5 min read paid

Information Technology (MW) led the S&P 500 sectors last week, up 1.8%. The sector rose 3.4% on Thursday following Nvidia’s results the previous evening. Nvidia guided to 70% revenue growth next fiscal year against a 45% consensus. Energy (OW) was among the weakest, down 2.0%, while Consumer Discretionary (UW) rose 0.1%. The rate-sensitive sectors sold off on Friday after Warsh’s Jackson

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Bull Market In Stocks Despite Bear Market In Bonds

Aug 30, 2026 4 min read paid

Bond yields are rising worldwide, but that's not stopping the global bull market in stocks. For now, investors are reading higher yields as a sign of economic growth rather than a threat to it, so the "Go Global" trade is still working. South Korea and Taiwan are back at the top of August's leaderboard after July's shakeout. The AI-linked markets that

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 31 - September 4

Aug 29, 2026 4 min read

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday was hawkish. He declined to offer forward guidance, saying he's "committed to a discipline, not a decision." He said this summer's better-than-expected inflation prints don't yet show that underlying trends have meaningfully improved, and that he'd be "hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Warsh Proof

Aug 29, 2026 4 min read

Last Wednesday, Nvidia's earnings report came in much stronger than expected, confirming that the AI boom is still going strong. On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was much more hawkish than expected in his Jackson Hole speech. He acknowledged that inflation remains above the Fed's 2.0% target. Overall, as we expected, these two events didn't move the markets much. The S&P

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: China Dumping Its Excess Production On The World

Aug 23, 2026 5 min read paid

The Go Global trade continues to work; August has not interrupted it. Asia's AI-linked stock markets are back in the performance-derby lead after July's shakeout, and the other emerging markets that led this year are leading again. Last week's action was in bonds. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the Treasury's buyback program for longer-dated debt, lifting repurchases to at

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Health Care, Semiconductors, Consumer Staples & Materials

Aug 23, 2026 5 min read paid

Health Care (OW) led the S&P 500 sectors this week, rising 4.3%. Energy (OW) was next at 2.5% and is up 41.2% ytd, the best of the 11 sectors (chart). Materials (OW) also finished higher, up 2.3%. The other eight sectors fell. Utilities (OW) was the weakest at -3.6%, followed by Industrials (OW) at -3.4% and Information Technology (MW) at -3.2%

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 24-28

Aug 23, 2026 4 min read

Global bond markets stole the spotlight last week. The US 10-year yield closed at 4.74% and the 30-year at 5.27%, up 6bps and 2bps, respectively, for the week (chart). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent surprised the markets on Wednesday by announcing that the US Treasury would double its long-term debt purchases to at least $4 billion per operation; that was the same day that the US

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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US MARKET CALL: Still Targeting 8400, But Raising Odds Of Bearish Outcome To 30%

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 7-11

US SECTORS CALL: Financials, Real Estate & Utilities

US MARKET CALL: More Fabulous Earnings Momentum

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Still A Worldwide Bull Market

US SECTORS CALL: Information Technology, Energy & Consumer Discretionary

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Bull Market In Stocks Despite Bear Market In Bonds

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 31 - September 4

US MARKET CALL: Warsh Proof

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: China Dumping Its Excess Production On The World

US SECTORS CALL: Health Care, Semiconductors, Consumer Staples & Materials

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 24-28