Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Damage From AI & War Shocks Has Been Minimal

Aug 2, 2026 4 min read paid

The global economy has been hit by two shocks this year and absorbed them well. The war that started in March pushed oil prices higher and disrupted global supply chains. The AI trade then took a dive in July, with Asian semiconductor stocks hit the hardest. Neither the initial shocks nor the aftershocks seem to have damaged the global economy so far. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Information Technology Is On Sale

Aug 2, 2026 4 min read paid

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,489.72. It has been stuck around 7,500 in a summer stall that actually started May 14. Below the calm surface of the market, there has been plenty of turbulence. Adding to last week's volatility was the forced liquidation of Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness hedge fund. Apparently, Leo was unaware of the risks of leverage bets

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 3-7

Aug 2, 2026 4 min read

After a week dominated by the Fed news, Q2's GDP release, and four Mag-7 earnings reports, the week ahead is jam-packed with labor market data, capped by Friday's employment report. Fedspeak resumes as well, with Governor Lisa Cook and SF Fed Bank President Mary Daly both speaking on Wednesday. They were not among the three hawkish dissenters at last week's FOMC meeting.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Situational (Un)Awareness Hedge Fund Blows Up Without Blowing Up The Market

Aug 1, 2026 5 min read

So far, so good. We predicted a summer stall in the stock market, with bouts of volatility rather than a correction, and that is how June and July played out. The S&P 500 has gone nowhere since May 14, fluctuating around 7,500, while the market has churned underneath. The rotation of leadership among sectors that we expected has continued. Breadth has improved. Nothing in the past month

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Getting Yin-Yanged By The Latest Gulf War

Jul 26, 2026 4 min read Premium Member tier

The re-escalation of the latest Gulf War pushed the price of Brent crude oil back up to $101.06 on Thursday. It was back down this evening as low as $86.58 after Iran reportedly said it would suspend attacks as long as the US does the same. Last week, rising oil prices were a headwind for the Go Global trade relative to Stay Home, because they fall harder

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Follow The Money

Jul 26, 2026 4 min read paid

The S&P 500 has been holding up around 7,500 as the war in the Middle East escalates. It closed at $7411.98 on Friday, just below its 50-day moving average (chart). Alphabet and Tesla both reported great Q2 revenues on Thursday. Yet both stocks were crushed, down 6.9% and 14.5%, as free cash flow turned negative for both. Investors have decided that AI capital

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: JULY 27 - 31

Jul 26, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,411.98, down 0.6% on the week, while the Nasdaq fell 2.1%. Oil was the dominant story: The price of Brent crude jumped 7% Thursday to settle at $100.69 a barrel, its first close above $100 since May 26, after Yemen's Houthi militants claimed strikes on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea (chart). President

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: MTM & Chips' Profit Margin Distorting S&P 500 Earnings, But FEMO Lives On!

Jul 25, 2026 6 min read paid

I. Stocks Stop the music! S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) have been significantly distorted by huge capital gains on investments by Alphabet and Amazon and a tax-related gain from Meta. Because GAAP accounting rules force companies to record unrealized equity gains and losses directly on the income statement, a small group of tech and venture-heavy mega-caps can create significant noise in the S&

Ed Yardeni
Joe Abbott
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS: Rotations and Corrections

Jul 19, 2026 4 min read Premium Member tier

The S&P 500 is 2.0% below its June 2 all-time high. It has been hovering around 7,500 since May 14. Beneath that calm, momentum stocks have been hard hit. The semiconductor index (SOXX) is down 20.3% from its June 22 peak. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), which started trading on April 2 around $28 and soared 208% to $80.7 on June 22, is

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Downgrading Emerging Markets To Market Weight

Jul 19, 2026 4 min read paid

We are downgrading emerging markets to market weight, not because the Go Global thesis is broken but because four separate short-term headwinds are converging at once: (1) The price of oil is back above $80 a barrel as the IRGC keeps the Strait of Hormuz contested. (2) The FOMC is hawkish. With inflation still sticky and a solid labor market, financial markets are currently pricing in one rate hike

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Hanging Out At 7,500 And 4.50%

Jul 18, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 first hit 7,500 on May 14 and has remained stuck around that level. The index continues to cruise along its 50-day moving average. A 6.0% drop would send it back to its 200-day moving average (chart). We have seen this movie before, recently, during late 2024 into early 2025 and again during late 2025 into early 2026. Both saw similar bouts

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 20-24

Jul 18, 2026 3 min read

The week ahead is light on economic data. The entire week falls inside the Fed's blackout period ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, so there's no Fedspeak to parse before the committee revisits the current 3.50%-3.75% funds rate range. Odds are that the committee's statement will remain hawkish but postpone any rate hiking. On the other hand, the earnings

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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