Bonds

Is The Dollar Debasement Trade Kaput?

Jun 24, 2026 5 min read paid

The "Dollar Debasement Trade" was a big theme in global financial markets last year. The thesis was that President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff hikes would revive inflation in the US and undermine foreigners' confidence in the US's reliability, especially among America's allies. In addition, the president's attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell threatened the Fed's independence and

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Gold, Oil, Stocks & Bonds In The War

Mar 25, 2026 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump must believe that the war will be over soon. The White House announced today that he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14 and 15. The Iranians responded to Trump's 15-point peace plan today with a list of five conditions, according to Press TV, including reparations, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and no more assassinations. Interestingly, they didn&

Ed Yardeni

Don't Feed The Animal Spirits

Oct 29, 2025 3 min read paid

In his press conference today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told financial market participants that today's 25bps cut in the federal funds rate (FFR) might not be followed by another one on December 10, when the FOMC votes on monetary policy again. "In the committee's discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December," Powell said. "A further

Ed Yardeni

Cockroaches

Oct 17, 2025 3 min read paid

"When you see one cockroach, there are probably more," JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on the company's earnings conference call earlier this week in relation to the First Brands and Tricolor Holdings fallout. These are two auto-related companies that have recently declared bankruptcy. First Brands, which is in the auto parts business, reportedly is facing a criminal investigation. Tricolor specialized in used car sales and

Ed Yardeni

Is Something About To Blow Up In The Credit Markets?

Apr 8, 2025 3 min read

The S&P 500 is now down almost 19%. It closed at 4982.77 (chart). If it falls another 1.35% down to 4915.32, it will be in a bear market. The index was up sharply at the start of trading today, but closed down 1.6% during regular trading hours after the magnitude and imminence of the Trump administration’s tariffs on US imports hit home. After

Ed Yardeni

Bessent Follows Yellen’s Lead & Gold Price Rises To New High

Feb 5, 2025 3 min read paid

The bond market relaxed today after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's debut Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) proved to be a non-event. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 9bps to 4.43%, its lowest level since the Federal Reserve's last rate cut, in mid-December (chart). Bessent had been critical of Janet Yellen's usage of short-term Treasury bills to finance the federal budget deficit.

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Stay Afloat in Deep Waters

Jan 27, 2025 3 min read paid

DeepSeek took a bite out of semiconductor, other tech, as well as nuclear power stocks today. Many of these AI plays dropped by double-digit percentage points, and Nvidia fell 17%. Other than the impact of the largest US stock nearly entering a bear market in one day, plus some collateral damage in other large stocks, the broader market held up just fine. The S&P 500 fell less

Ed Yardeni

Valuation & Beauty

Jan 13, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock market valuation and beauty have a lot in common: They are both in the eyes of the beholder. At the end of the original version of the movie King Kong (1933), the big ape’s death is blamed by his handler on Ann Darrow, Kong’s blonde love interest, played by Fay Wray: "It was beauty that killed the beast." Lots of investors are worrying that valuation

Ed Yardeni

Bond Yields Have Normalized

Jan 8, 2025 3 min read

The backup in bond yields since mid-September did not surprise us. But it has surprised lots of other financial pundits, who are warning that this could be bad news for stocks. It could be, especially if the 10-year US Treasury bond yield revisits last year's high of 5.00%. That would probably bring a buying opportunity in the bond and stock markets. We think that bond

Ed Yardeni

Is It Too Late To Panic?

Dec 19, 2024 3 min read paid

Since the December 5 QuickTakes titled "Contrarian Indicators Showing Too Many Bulls," we've been warning that bullish sentiment is too high and setting the stage for a pullback. In Sunday's QT titled "Game of Drones," we reiterated: "Is it time to panic in the stock market? It's always best to panic before the crowd does. The issue isn'

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Trend Spotting

Nov 3, 2024 3 min read

Some of our best friends are technicians. Ed was at Prudential Equity Group at the same time as Ralph Acampora, the renowned market historian and technical analyst. Ralph's analysis often confirmed Ed's fundamental analysis. So in our spare time we like to follow the charts for clues about the future, and we occasionally spot trends that seem to support our forecasts. Currently, we are focusing on

Ed Yardeni

Sell Bonds, Buy Gold?

Oct 21, 2024 3 min read

Yes, that has been our advice since mid-August. Our August 19, 2024 Morning Briefing was titled, "Get Ready To Short Bonds?" We wrote: "Bond investors may be expecting too many interest-rate cuts too soon if in fact August’s economic indicators rebound from July levels and the Fed pushes back against the markets’ current expectations for monetary policy. So we are expecting to see the

Ed Yardeni

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