Consumer - Yardeni QuickTakes

Slow Moving Economy

Public – 1 min read

August's industrial production and inflation-adjusted retail sales reports today show that the US economy is growing, but just barely. The former was down a bit, while the latter was up…

Sep 15, 2022

Watching The Pump Price

Public – 1 min read

Everyone who drives a car or rides in one knows the price of gasoline on a daily basis. The sharp drop in this price during July fueled the rally in…

Aug 12, 2022

Consumers Have Nothing To Fear But The Future

Public – 1 min read

Consumers are looking into their crystal balls and they don't like what they see. Even though the present still looks bright, the future is looking darker. July's Consumer Confidence Index…

Jul 26, 2022

Goldilocks & the Fed

Paid Members – 1 min read

Was today’s June employment release a Goldilocks report? Payroll employment rose 372,000, and wages increased 0.3%—not too hot, not too cold. The problem is that consumer…

Jul 8, 2022

It's (Unofficially) a Recession!

Public – 2 min read

The economy continues to teeter on the edge of a recession. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model shows Q2's real GDP growth at -1.0% (saar). It was revised down…

Jun 30, 2022

May's Retail Sales Depressed Q2's Real GDP

Public – 2 min read

May's retail sales was weak in current dollars (-0.3% m/m) and even weaker in real dollars (-1.6%). The question is whether consumers have more than satisfied their…

Jun 16, 2022

Uncle Sam Isn’t Santa Claus

Public – 1 min read

Following Friday’s CPI shocker, the financial media seem to have concluded that the Fed will have no choice but to raise the federal funds rate faster than planned to…

Jun 12, 2022

Mortgage Applications Falling, Consumer Credit Balances Rising

Paid Members – 1 min read

The housing market may be falling into a recession, but consumers continue to spend—though they have needed to borrow more to do so. The seasonally adjusted purchase Index for…

Jun 8, 2022

Don't Bet Against American Consumers

Paid Members – 1 min read

How much pain at the pump can consumers take? The national retail price of a gallon of gasoline soared to $4.59 during the May 16 week.

May 17, 2022