Consumer

Booming AI Imports Depressing US GDP, Though Not Final Sales

Jul 7, 2026 4 min read paid

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates Q2-2026 real GDP growth at just 1.4% (saar). That's because net exports (i.e., exports minus imports) dragged it down by 1.3 ppt. During the quarter, AI-related imports increased sharply, outpacing the large increase in US exports of crude oil and petroleum products. The picture is brighter below the headline number. Real final sales to private

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Inflating, But Not Stagnating

May 28, 2026 5 min read paid

The three major US stock market price indexes (i.e., the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and DJIA) rose to record highs again today. So did the Russell 2000. Leading the way higher were technology stocks. Driving stock prices higher was a report that the US and Iran have "mostly agreed" to extend their ceasefire by 60 days. The market ignored a warning from ExxonMobil that oil inventories

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

The Champagne Glass Is More Than Half Full

Apr 15, 2026 5 min read paid

Happy days are here again! The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to record highs today, which just happens to be tax day. What's all the excitement about? The AI bubble hasn't burst, so far. Instead, hyperscaler stocks are leading the charge since the stock market bottomed on March 30 (chart). The private credit bubble may be losing some air, but it isn't

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

POTUS Sees An Exit Ramp Up Ahead

Apr 1, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The War and the President's Speech Yesterday, we concluded that the S&P 500's pullback bottomed on Monday, just shy of a 10% correction. The S&P 500 fell on Monday to 6343.72, down 9.1% from its January 27 record high. That low could be retested, but we think that yesterday's big rally, combined with the recent drop in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Will The US Economy Remain Resilient Despite AI Derangement Syndrome?

Feb 26, 2026 4 min read paid

If AI continues to disrupt, if not destroy, more and more business models, won't that cause a recession? It might if it triggers lots of white-collar layoffs, which in turn lead to blue-collar job losses (chart). Alternatively, it might cause a credit crunch in the private credit markets. UBS Group AG has raised its private credit default forecast, with its strategists warning that losses could reach

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: February 23–27

Feb 22, 2026 3 min read

Now that the gavel has fallen on Donald Trump’s tariffs, the question is how the US president will try to save face. President Trump’s move on Saturday to slap 15% universal levies on the globe—up from an initial 10% on Friday—dispels the notion that Trump might’ve lost the taste for trade-warring. Where Trump takes tariffs now is anyone’s guess. On Friday, the Supreme

Ed Yardeni

The AI-Led Pullback: Recalibrating The Odds Of Three Scenarios

Nov 18, 2025 3 min read

Will today's widely feared AI crisis turn out to be a no-show, too, just like the most widely anticipated recession of all time, anxiously awaited over most of the past four years? We think so. Stock investors are increasingly worrying about an AI-led Tech Wreck, like the one in 2000 after the 1999 Tech Bubble burst. Now, many of them believe the stock market is in

Ed Yardeni

Like Throwing Gasoline On A Fire

Sep 16, 2025 2 min read paid

The FOMC is likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps tomorrow. Among the meeting participants, there might be one or more dissenters to the decision who favor a 50bps cut and one or more dissenters opposed to any cut. The Summary of Economic Projections may also indicate that FOMC participants are divided on whether and when further cuts might be necessary. Tomorrow's rate cut isn&

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 15 - 19

Sep 14, 2025 3 min read

Central banks take the spotlight this week as monetary policymakers from Washington to Tokyo cut to the chase on the balance of economic risks. Though the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting (Tue-Wed) is the main event, rate decisions by the Bank of Canada (Wed), the Bank of England (Thu), and the Bank of Japan (Fri) may reveal much about the degree to which US tariffs are disrupting

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Tomorrow is August 1

Jul 31, 2025 2 min read paid

The April 2 Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs were postponed on April 9 to July 9 and again to August 1. The S&P 500's latest correction bottomed on April 8. The rebound to new record highs has been extraordinary. Today's selloff on mostly good news suggests that investors and traders might be starting to take profits before going on their August vacations. They might also

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 28–May 2

Apr 27, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with economic updates. The headliners will be Q1's GDP and March's personal income and expenditures (both Wed) as well as April's payroll employment (Fri). We're expecting relatively strong employment data, which should highlight the US economy's resilience notwithstanding Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT). The week's inflation indicators likely remained subdued, although tariff-

Ed Yardeni

Strongest Buy Signal Ever?

Apr 24, 2025 3 min read paid

On Sunday (April 20), we observed that The Economist had just featured three consecutive very bearish cover stories suggesting that the dollar might be on the verge of collapse and that so might the US stock and bond markets along with the US economy. Make that four consecutive bearish cover stories, with this week's magazine showing an eagle battered by Trump's first 100 days (image). We

Ed Yardeni

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