PMI

Booming AI Imports Depressing US GDP, Though Not Final Sales

Jul 7, 2026 4 min read paid

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates Q2-2026 real GDP growth at just 1.4% (saar). That's because net exports (i.e., exports minus imports) dragged it down by 1.3 ppt. During the quarter, AI-related imports increased sharply, outpacing the large increase in US exports of crude oil and petroleum products. The picture is brighter below the headline number. Real final sales to private

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Oil Price Shock Boosts March Prices-Paid PMIs

Apr 6, 2026 4 min read paid

Tomorrow night at 8:00 p.m. is the deadline by which Iran must accept President Donald Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face a US attack on its power plants and bridges. There is no way to predict the outcome. We can't rule out that Iran will cave in. Or, Trump may postpone the deadline again, explaining that negotiations are making progress.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

25bps Cut? We Strongly Dissent!

Nov 5, 2024 3 min read paid

We may or may not know tonight who will be the next president, but we should know which party will win a majority in the Senate and the House. It appears that Republicans are likely to do so. In this case, a Harris administration would be gridlocked, while a Trump administration would have more power to implement his policies, including higher tariffs (raising inflation risks) and lower taxes (ballooning the

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Rotates To Interest-Rate Sensitive Sectors

Jul 18, 2024 3 min read paid

The bull market in stocks has been quite volatile in recent days as it rotates and broadens. The triggering event was a better-than-expected June CPI report on Thursday, July 11. Since then, the financial markets priced in a 100% probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Investors responded by rotating out of the S&P 500's Magnificent-7 into the S&P 1493

Ed Yardeni

Soft Patch Getting Softer. Is That Raising Odds of Fed Rate Cut in September & Stock Market Meltup?

Jul 3, 2024 3 min read paid

Last week and this week have been good ones for the recession camp of economists. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model's estimate of real GDP growth during Q2-2024 dropped from a robust 3.0% on June 26 to half as much today. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is the most negative it has been since August 2022 (chart). We are still in the soft-

Ed Yardeni

Bad News About Goods Is Good News For Bonds & Stocks

May 16, 2024 2 min read paid

The Dow is flirting with 40,000 currently, confirming that good news is good news and bad news is also good news for the stock market these days. That's because the bad news is also good news for the bond market. On balance, the news is that inflation is moderating and the economy is growing. Yesterday's April CPI report confirmed that inflation remains on course to

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 31-August 4

Jul 30, 2023 2 min read paid

The M-PMI is released on the first business day of each month. The NM-PMI is released two days later. We expect that the former (Tue) will show that the rolling recession in the goods-producing sector is bottoming, while the latter (Thu) should show that the service-providing sector is still expanding. We already have four of the regional business surveys conducted by five FRB district banks. The

Stephen Rybka

No Recession In Services

Oct 5, 2022 1 min read

Following today's release of September's nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (NM-PMI), the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model revised Q3's growth rate from 2.3% (saar) to 2.7%. Consumer spending and real-gross private domestic investment were revised higher from 0.7% to 1.1% and from -4.1% to -3.6%. The next recession might be the most widely anticipated recession

Ed Yardeni

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