Archive

Strongest Buy Signal Ever?

Apr 24, 2025 3 min read paid

On Sunday (April 20), we observed that The Economist had just featured three consecutive very bearish cover stories suggesting that the dollar might be on the verge of collapse and that so might the US stock and bond markets along with the US economy. Make that four consecutive bearish cover stories, with this week's magazine showing an eagle battered by Trump's first 100 days (image). We

Ed Yardeni

POTUS Blinks

Apr 23, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump blinked. So stock prices rose. Late Tuesday, he said that he has "no intention" of firing Jerome Powell, whose term as Fed chair will end in May 2026. That's after berating Powell for the past few days and threatening to fire him. Furthermore, Trump appeared to soften his stance on the US-China trade war on Tuesday, telling an Oval Office press conference that

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/23/25

Apr 23, 2025 1 min read paid

On Edge For 90 Days Trump’s Tariff Turmoil has put the world on edge. A new world order may be the ultimate result, but for now we’ve got the New World Disorder, leaving everyone scrambling to adjust to Trump’s unpredictable policy pivots. The economic fallout is uncertain. The uncertainty is keeping Wall Street on edge. It’s keeping US trading partner nations on edge. It’s keeping

Ed Yardeni

Is The Dollar As Weak As They Say?

Apr 22, 2025 3 min read

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down 8.8% since the start of this year (chart). That has sparked lots of angst, the worry being that this might be just the beginning of a secular decline in the dollar because the US seems to be on course to decouple from the global trading system and become more self-sufficient. If Washington's policies reduce America's trade deficit, there

Ed Yardeni

Damage Assessment

Apr 21, 2025 4 min read paid

Stock prices fell sharply today in response to President Donald Trump's recent unseemly barrage of hostile tweets directed at Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump seems to be setting Powell up to be the fall guy if Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) causes a recession later this year. Also unnerving stock prices was a warning from Beijing to all its trading partners against succumbing to US pressure to

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 21-25

Apr 21, 2025 3 min read

This week's data are likely to confirm that consumer sentiment (Fri) remained sour this month. The housing market is unlikely to have thawed last month given that mortgage rates remain high and building costs will increase with tariffs and a shortage of immigrant labor. Even some incremental good news on durable goods orders (Thu) would likely be chalked up to tariff front-running, especially as we expect regional Fed

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Contrarian Indicators Showing Too Many Bears

Apr 20, 2025 4 min read paid

We don't recall this ever happening before. During the past three weeks, The Economist has featured three very bearish cover stories suggesting that the dollar might be on the verge of collapse and that so might the US stock and bond markets along with the global economy (chart). Contrarians of the world, unite! As extreme bearishness pervades world markets, the old maxim “It’s always darkest before the

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Bonds Away!?

Apr 18, 2025 9 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, April 14, 2025. Bonds I: Kerfuffle. Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon said on the company’s Friday earnings call: “There will be a kerfuffle in the Treasury markets because of all the rules and regulations. When that happens, the Fed will step in—but not until ‘they start to panic a little bit.’ He

Ed Yardeni

Gold Is Glittering

Apr 17, 2025 2 min read

We've been bullish on gold since it broke out above $2,000 per ounce at the end of February 2024. It has been trading in an upward channel since then (chart). It soared to $2,600 by the end of last year. In recent days, it has jumped to a record $3,300, which is the upper end of the channel. Our $4,000 target by the end

Ed Yardeni

Trump Making Powell The Fall Guy Again

Apr 17, 2025 3 min read paid

As we've said before, any day without Trump Tariff Turmoil (TTT) is a good day for financial markets. Despite UnitedHealth Group’s losing roughly a quarter of its value today on poor earnings and higher medical costs, the S&P 500 stayed mostly above yesterday's close all day. Even the Russell 2000 was up today. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly made progress on a

Ed Yardeni

Is The US In A Recession?

Apr 16, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 is down sharply this afternoon. Losses started in the morning due to more Trump Tariff Turmoil (TTT) news. Nvidia's disclosure that the US government's new controls on its semiconductor exports to China would result in a $5.5 billion loss dragged down its shares and major indexes. Losses extended in the afternoon after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's prepared remarks

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/16/25

Apr 16, 2025 1 min read paid

Bonds Away!? Long-term Treasury bond yields surged last week despite news that March inflation was subdued and consumer sentiment is falling fast. That’s partly because the federal budget deficit is too d@mn high! In the past, recessions and lower long-term bond yields were associated with higher deficits; but the budget deficit has been widening since Covid despite a growing economy. Supply of long-term bonds also affects yields, but

Ed Yardeni