Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 16)

MARKET CALL: Meltup Again? (Do We Have Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear?)

Jun 8, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market has become tariff-scare-proof now that the S&P 500 is only 2.3% below its February 19 record high despite Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) since then. After Friday's better-than-expected employment report, the stock market has also become recession-scare-proof. According to Polymarkets, the odds of a recession were back down to 27% on Friday from a recent peak of 66% on May 1

Ed Yardeni

He Said, Xi Said

Jun 5, 2025 3 min read

President Donald Trump said today that he had a "very good talk" with China's President Xi Jinping for an hour and a half mostly about trade. They also agreed to visit one another. The financial markets yawned. Stock, bond, currency, and commodity traders have become jaded about Trump's tumultuous trade dealmaking. Even rising concerns about a shortage of Chinese rare earth minerals (needed by

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Bag

Jun 4, 2025 3 min read paid

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell to 4.36% today on a batch of weaker-than-expected economic indicators. Bond investors weren't fazed by Elon Musk's attack on President Trump's "big beautiful bill" on Tuesday afternoon. Musk thinks it’s ugly: "This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination." Nor were they fazed by the fact that the

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: China’s Currency & Japan’s Stocks

Jun 4, 2025 1 min read paid

Trump’s Tariff Turmoil has undermined the US’s credit worthiness and unsteadied the dollar. For countries harboring currency-dominance aspirations, that’s been a blessing in disguise. Today, William explains why China’s aspirations for the yuan won’t bear fruit anytime soon. … Also: The opportunity China is jumping on to recast itself as the world’s protector of globalization. … And: Japan’s stock market has been on a tear

Ed Yardeni

Another Happy-Go-Lucky Day

Jun 3, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Signals

Jun 2, 2025 3 min read

So is the economy slowing or speeding up? Yes, it is doing both according to today's batch of economic indicators. No wonder that neither stocks nor bonds did much today. The calm in the stock market was notable given that President Donald Trump was Tariff Man again on Friday, blasting China for not abiding by the temporary and partial tariff truce with the US and doubling the tariff

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 2 - 6

Jun 1, 2025 3 min read

There's no question that President Donald Trump is stress testing the resilience of the economy with what we've been (objectively) calling Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT). The latest developments on Friday: Trump declared that China is violating terms agreed upon in its trade deal with the US, and he raised the tariff on aluminum and steel from 25% to 50%. Nevertheless, the resilience of the

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: S&P 500 Earnings & Valuation

May 31, 2025 4 min read paid

We now have LSEG’s I/B/E/S data for S&P 500 companies’ revenues per share and earnings per share during Q1. Both edged down on a q/q basis but showed solid gains on a y/y basis (chart). The profit margin edged up to 13.3%. Notwithstanding Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT), the economy remains resilient, supporting an upbeat outlook for revenues. Earnings should

Ed Yardeni

Checks and Balances

May 29, 2025 3 min read paid

The US is a federal republic. It isn't a democracy, where the majority always rules. The constitutional system was designed by the Founding Fathers, who were mostly lawyers, to provide checks and balances to avert the concentration of political power and to protect the rights of minority parties against abuses by the majority as well as by those in power. The three branches of government were designed to

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

From Trump's Tariff-Postpone-Repeat to Court's Cease-and-Desist

May 28, 2025 3 min read

In imposing his tariffs in early April, President Donald Trump called the trade deficit a national emergency that justified his doing so. This evening, the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade said the US Constitution gives Congress exclusive authority to regulate commerce with other countries that is not overridden by the president's emergency powers to safeguard the US economy. "The court does not pass upon the wisdom or

Ed Yardeni

Nvidia Isn't Cisco

May 28, 2025 3 min read paid

As Nvidia's stock price soared during 2024, the naysayers compared its ascent to Cisco's roundtrip performance during the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, which was followed by the Tech Wreck of 2000 and 2001 (chart). Cisco was the tech darling of the dawning Internet Age. Nvidia is leading the way in the AI Age. Cisco crashed when the Dot.Com Bubble burst. When DeepSeek was

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Japan’s Brawl With The Bond Vigilantes

May 28, 2025 1 min read paid

After last week’s portentous Japanese government bond auction, in which demand was so weak as to be off the charts, William explains what went wrong and why. Contributing factors included the BOJ’s halted tightening owing to “tariff haze,” the Prime Minister’s unfortunate remark likening the nation’s fiscal situation to that of Greece, and vestiges of Japan’s economic past. But having Japan-specific causes doesn’t detract

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

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