Archive

Is The Economy On The Edge?

May 1, 2025 3 min read

The good news is that the Magnificent-7 are still magnificent. Three of them (Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft) beat earnings expectations for Q1. We've been arguing that while AI may or may not make money for the providers of Large Language Models, the result will be more demand for cloud computing. That should be good news for at least four of the Mag-7. The bad news is that recent

Ed Yardeni

US Economy Is Tariffied

Apr 30, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) is certainly upsetting global trade relations and confusing financial markets. This is all having an effect on the US economy, as evidenced by today's Q1 GDP report. The S&P 500 fell sharply in the morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that real GDP fell 0.3% (saar) (chart). By the end of the day, the

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/30/25

Apr 30, 2025 1 min read paid

Anatomy Of A Correction A dovish faction has been forming within the Federal Reserve Board, dissenting from Chief Powell’s hawkish party line. Rather than wait and see whether tariffs deliver greater blows to the economic or the inflation outlook before changing monetary-policy course, the doves claim that the economy is more vulnerable and espouse lowering the federal funds rate sooner rather than later. Dr Ed sides with Powell &

Ed Yardeni

Consumers Go Shopping To Beat Depression & Tariffs

Apr 29, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock prices rose and bond yields edged lower today on hopes that the Trump administration will soon start to deliver trade deals and the Fed might deliver cuts in the federal funds rate if the labor market shows signs of weakening. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said today that the administration has its first trade deal, but it is not fully finalized. He declined to name the country involved (Freedonia?). Today&

Ed Yardeni

Bonds Are Stirred, Not Shaken

Apr 28, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 is down roughly 10% from its record high on February 19. Considering Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT), that's not too bad. Also recall all the angst unleashed when the 10-year US Treasury bond yield spiked from 4.00% to 4.50% right after President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs. Now it is back down to 4.20%

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 28–May 2

Apr 27, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with economic updates. The headliners will be Q1's GDP and March's personal income and expenditures (both Wed) as well as April's payroll employment (Fri). We're expecting relatively strong employment data, which should highlight the US economy's resilience notwithstanding Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT). The week's inflation indicators likely remained subdued, although tariff-related

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Death Cross Versus Zweig Breadth Thrust

Apr 27, 2025 4 min read

Only a few days ago, some stock-market-chart watchers warned that Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) set up a bearish Death Cross formation in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. That occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average (chart). The formation historically has signaled declines ahead, but not all Death Crosses have preceded major downturns. Now some market watchers are seeing a bullish

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Trump Retreats On Terminating Powell

Apr 26, 2025 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, April 22, 2025. President Trump has been frustrated by Fed Chair Jerome Powell since Trump’s first term in the White House. Trump nominated Powell to serve as Fed chair in 2017, replacing Janet Yellen. However, he soon soured on his pick, repeatedly attacking Powell on Twitter for raising interest rates too quickly. In 2018, Trump was so frustrated

Ed Yardeni

Strongest Buy Signal Ever?

Apr 24, 2025 3 min read paid

On Sunday (April 20), we observed that The Economist had just featured three consecutive very bearish cover stories suggesting that the dollar might be on the verge of collapse and that so might the US stock and bond markets along with the US economy. Make that four consecutive bearish cover stories, with this week's magazine showing an eagle battered by Trump's first 100 days (image). We

Ed Yardeni

POTUS Blinks

Apr 23, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump blinked. So stock prices rose. Late Tuesday, he said that he has "no intention" of firing Jerome Powell, whose term as Fed chair will end in May 2026. That's after berating Powell for the past few days and threatening to fire him. Furthermore, Trump appeared to soften his stance on the US-China trade war on Tuesday, telling an Oval Office press conference that

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/23/25

Apr 23, 2025 1 min read paid

On Edge For 90 Days Trump’s Tariff Turmoil has put the world on edge. A new world order may be the ultimate result, but for now we’ve got the New World Disorder, leaving everyone scrambling to adjust to Trump’s unpredictable policy pivots. The economic fallout is uncertain. The uncertainty is keeping Wall Street on edge. It’s keeping US trading partner nations on edge. It’s keeping

Ed Yardeni

Is The Dollar As Weak As They Say?

Apr 22, 2025 3 min read

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down 8.8% since the start of this year (chart). That has sparked lots of angst, the worry being that this might be just the beginning of a secular decline in the dollar because the US seems to be on course to decouple from the global trading system and become more self-sufficient. If Washington's policies reduce America's trade deficit, there

Ed Yardeni