Paid Foreigners Buying Lots Of US Dollars To Buy Lots Of US Stocks & Bonds Jan 21, 2025 3 min read paid The stock market rose today, buoyed by the fact that President Donald Trump didn't raise tariffs on Day #1 of his second term as was widely expected. Instead, he will be raising them on Canada and Mexico on Day #13 (February 1). That's what he said Monday evening. Stocks also got a boost when Trump announced today that Softbank, OpenAI, and Oracle are forming a $100 Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid MARKET CALL: Momentum Is Hard To Stop Jan 20, 2025 3 min read paid The bond and stock markets were closed today for MLK Day. When they reopen tomorrow, we will all be able to assess their initial reactions to Trump 2.0 following today's Inauguration ceremony. The major stock market futures indexes were up all day. Bitcoin soared in the morning, but turned down in the afternoon. Gold and copper prices fell slightly. The dollar sold off after The Wall Street Ed Yardeni
Public ECONOMIC WEEK: January 20–24 Jan 20, 2025 3 min read The week ahead will be light on economic indicators and heavy on executive orders (EOs). While the markets are closed on Monday for MLK Day, President Donald Trump will be inaugurated into office for his second term. Out of the gate, Trump 2.0 is likely to target tariff, immigration, regulatory, energy, and cultural issues with a deluge of EOs. Bitcoin might get a huge boost this week if Trump Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid DEEP DIVE: Recalibrating the Fed Jan 18, 2025 5 min read paid This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, January 13, 2025. From March 2022 through August 2024, there was widespread concern that the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed over that period would cause a recession. It was the most widely anticipated recession that didn’t happen on record. Once the Fed started easing monetary policy on September 18, 2024, it was widely expected that the Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Public US Economy: Another Mostly Pretty Picture Jan 16, 2025 4 min read Today's batch of December economic indicators in the US has mostly eased any downside concerns about the labor market, consumers, and the economy overall. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model is now showing Q4-2024 real GDP growth of 3.0% (saar), driven by a 3.7% increase in consumer spending on goods (chart). The latter was revised up from 3.3% after retail sales was released Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid Today Was A Good Day Jan 15, 2025 3 min read paid Both stocks and bonds benefitted from good news across the earnings, macroeconomic, and geopolitical fronts today. Financial stocks jumped as big banks kicked off Q4 earnings season with better-than-expected results, and the S&P 500 rose 1.8%. Treasuries rallied, as December's CPI was a bit cooler than feared. And Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire after 15 long months of fighting. We anticipated that Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/15/25 Jan 15, 2025 1 min read paid The financial markets have been recalibrating their expectations for monetary policy since the FOMC’s December meeting and their expectations for economic changes under the incoming Trump 2.0 administration since Election Day. In this context, Friday’s strong employment report only served to cement investors’ sense that the Fed should pause its easing. Both bond and stock markets reacted like the sky was falling. We’re not surprised by Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid Valuation & Beauty Jan 13, 2025 3 min read paid Stock market valuation and beauty have a lot in common: They are both in the eyes of the beholder. At the end of the original version of the movie King Kong (1933), the big ape’s death is blamed by his handler on Ann Darrow, Kong’s blonde love interest, played by Fay Wray: "It was beauty that killed the beast." Lots of investors are worrying that valuation Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid The Economic Week Ahead: January 13-17 Jan 12, 2025 3 min read paid The week ahead is packed with inflation, consumer, and manufacturing indicators. Long-term Treasury yields could climb closer to 5.00% this week if fears about stickier inflation intensify. We're expecting solid updates on consumer spending. In addition, Q4's S&P 500 bank earnings reported late in the week should be strong and counterbalance any hit to stock valuations from higher yields (chart). Here's Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid MARKET CALL: Bond Vigilantes Spooking Stock Jockeys Jan 12, 2025 2 min read paid Last year, during August, we anticipated that US bond yields would rebound. Indeed, they have. During December, we expected a stock market correction at the start of the new year. So far, there has been a significant pullback in almost all of the major stock market indexes since the S&P 500 peaked at a record high on December 6, 2024 (chart). Some of these pullbacks, which are 5% Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid DEEP DIVE: Risks & Reward In 2025 Jan 11, 2025 8 min read paid This is an excerpt from the Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated January 6, 2025. Strategy I: What Could Go Right. We are biased by the stock market’s bullish bias. We tend to be permabulls because bear markets are infrequent and are usually relatively short compared to bull markets, which tend to last for some time. Since January 1978, the S&P 500 is up 66.6-fold (Fig. 3) Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein