Archive

DEEP DIVE: Risks & Reward In 2025

Jan 11, 2025 8 min read paid

This is an excerpt from the Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated January 6, 2025. Strategy I: What Could Go Right. We are biased by the stock market’s bullish bias. We tend to be permabulls because bear markets are infrequent and are usually relatively short compared to bull markets, which tend to last for some time. Since January 1978, the S&P 500 is up 66.6-fold (Fig. 3)

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

A Bunch Of Cool & Colorful Charts

Jan 9, 2025 3 min read

I. US FINANCIAL MARKETS The bull/bear ratios have dropped sharply over the past couple of weeks (chart). From a contrarian perspective that's a bullish development for the US stock market. The US bond yield has been increasing while the ratio of industrial to precious metals commodity prices has been falling since 2022 (chart). This unusual divergence might suggest that bond investors are increasingly concerned about the long-term

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bond Yields Have Normalized

Jan 8, 2025 3 min read

The backup in bond yields since mid-September did not surprise us. But it has surprised lots of other financial pundits, who are warning that this could be bad news for stocks. It could be, especially if the 10-year US Treasury bond yield revisits last year's high of 5.00%. That would probably bring a buying opportunity in the bond and stock markets. We think that bond yields have

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/8/25

Jan 8, 2025 1 min read paid

The January Barometer and January Effect have been interesting statistical regularities that may not have much investment usefulness. It’s better to stay in the stock market whatever the month brings than to try and execute exits and entrances based on the calendar. Over time, the market has a bullish bias, which is why we do too. … Today, Dr Ed lists what could go right for the stock market this

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bond Vigilantes Put 5% Yield In Crosshairs

Jan 7, 2025 3 min read paid

The US economy continues to roar. December's ISM purchasing managers survey showed that services activity remains strong. The JOLTS data, albeit a bit stale from November, showed job openings jumped. That aligned with the recent rise in measures of business and consumer confidence. So why did stocks turn lower today? The answer lies with the bond market. The prices-paid index in the ISM nonmanufacturing PMI jumped from 58.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Will SMidCaps Continue To Underperform?

Jan 6, 2025 3 min read paid

Today was another good day for technology stocks, semiconductor stocks, and the Magnificent-7. In the S&P 500, they were up 1.44%, 3.28%, and 2.01%. We continue to recommend overweighting the LargeCap S&P 500 Information Technology and Communication Services sectors. We aren't as keen on the MidCap S&P 400 or the SmallCap S&P 600 (collectively the “SMidCaps”), or

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: AI Coming To Vegas, Baby, Vegas!

Jan 5, 2025 3 min read paid

The Q4-2024 earnings reporting season is about to start, led by the big banks. We expect that during their conference calls, company managements will discuss how AI may be starting to boost their productivity. In effect, they'll be trying to convince investors that every company is now a technology company either producing AI hardware and software or using them. The AI excitement will be palpable this week. As

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: January 6-10

Jan 5, 2025 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead is chockful of labor market indicators for November and December. We're expecting them to beat expectations. As long as corporate earnings continue to reach new record highs, companies are likely to hire more workers and increase real wages (chart). Ultimately, that supports consumer spending and stock prices. Still, there are a number of potential headwinds for stocks, not the least of which is rising

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Great (Yield) Fall Of China

Jan 2, 2025 3 min read paid

Today's Wall Street Journal reports: "Now, as Trump prepares for his second administration, American companies have largely gone silent about the importance of the U.S.-China relationship. That is because American businesses no longer see China as the land of opportunity. The promise of China’s market has faded as its once-booming economy hits trouble." We've been saying for a while that China

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/1/25

Jan 1, 2025 paid

Ed and Eric look forward to the new year. ❇️Exclusive Early Access for Paid Members: Below, you'll find Dr. Ed's latest webcast. Paid members can enjoy immediate access to the video. This content will become available to the public at a later date—don't miss out on early insights, consider upgrading today!

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

2024 Was A Roaringly Good Year For Stocks

Jan 1, 2025 3 min read

This is the time of year when we all wish one another a healthy, happy, and prosperous new year. The past two years were certainly prosperous ones for equities investors, as the S&P 500 rose 23.3% following a 24.2% gain in 2023. Those gains more than offset the 19.4% loss during 2022. On average, the S&P 500 is up 9.4% per year

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Some Air Coming Out Of Post-Election Balloon

Dec 30, 2024 3 min read paid

The post-election rally has been losing steam since early December (chart). The S&P 500 peaked at a record high on December 6. From a sentiment perspective, there have been too many bulls. From a technical perspective, breadth has been narrowing again as a few LargeCap momentum stocks continue to outperform. From a fundamental perspective, while earnings growth should remain bullish, the Fed may be done easing monetary policy

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein