Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 30)

DEEP DIVE: Is The US Economy Shock Proof?

Oct 9, 2025 5 min read paid

The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing (Oct. 6, 2025) for institutional investors. US Economy I: ‘Resilient’ Is Still the Right Word Since a very short, two-month recession in early 2020, the US economy has continued to grow despite numerous shocks (Fig. 3 below). The pandemic hit the US economy during February 2020 and quickly led to the March and April lockdowns that caused a recession during

Ed Yardeni

Data Centers: Too Much of a Good Thing?

Oct 8, 2025 5 min read

The lure of riches and tight capacity today has money flooding into the construction of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. Data center construction—just the cost of building the building—has increased to an annual rate of $43.0 billion, up 30% y/y and 322% higher than $10.2 billion four years ago (chart). Add in the costs of chips and servers, and you’re talking about real money.

Jackie Doherty
Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Still Roaring

Oct 8, 2025 1 min read paid

Sunshine during my tour of the West Coast and in the stock market last week. But everyone’s on the lookout for signs of an AI bubble. Jeff Bezos has a positive take on bubbles that makes sense to us: They accelerate funding and hasten AI’s tremendous benefits. Revisiting the BRAIN Revolution and our long-standing confidence in technology and its positive impact on the economy. … Also: Pandemics, tangled

Ed Yardeni

Sweet Spot For Financials

Oct 7, 2025 3 min read paid

Today, Oracle disclosed that its AI cloud business—particularly server rentals using Nvidia chips—is yielding very slim profit margins. That news weighed on the stock market, especially on technology stocks. Oracle's stock price fell 2.5%. The Magnificent-7 declined 1.1%. Financial stocks also dropped today. They tend to have more leverage and cyclical exposure, so when sentiment sours, they often fall harder than some defensive

Ed Yardeni

Another Day Of AI Fun In The Sun For Semis

Oct 6, 2025 3 min read paid

Semiconductor stocks have certainly benefited from the AI boom. All those data centers being built will be filled with chips (chart). All those autonomous-driving vehicles will also be stuffed with chips, and so will humanoid robots. And they will all generate more data that will need to be processed. Today's AI winner was AMD. Shares of the chipmaker soared after the company announced a multibillion-dollar deal

Ed Yardeni

GOOD MARKET CALL: Gold

Oct 6, 2025 3 min read

From time to time, we will review and update some of our good market calls. We hope this provides a helpful perspective on our approach to market forecasting. Today, let's review and update our thoughts on the outlook for gold: (1) We first turned bullish on the price of gold on April 7, 2024. We noted that it was breaking out above $2000 per ounce to new record

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 6 - 10

Oct 5, 2025 3 min read

This is a quiet week for key economic data releases, but it is even quieter due to the ongoing government shutdown. For financial markets, this informational void is equivalent to flying blind. That also applies to Fed officials who are undecided about the need to vote for a rate cut at the October 28-29 FOMC meeting. This week will offer investors insights into the internal dynamics of the September

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

A Bubble In Bubble Fears?

Oct 5, 2025 3 min read

We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target back to 7000. We started the year there, but lowered it earlier this year in response to Trump's Tariff Turmoil. We began raising our forecast again during the spring, when we concluded that the tariff issue would no longer impact the stock market by the end of the summer. We bet the resilience of the economy would

Ed Yardeni

What Is The Stock Market Discounting?

Oct 2, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market is discounting the ongoing resilience of the economy and corporate earnings. It is discounting that the odds of a recession over the rest of the Roaring 2020s are low. The longer the economy is expected to grow without a recession, the more sustainable high valuation multiples can be, since earnings growth can be expected to justify those valuations (chart). High valuations don't cause bear markets.

Ed Yardeni

Russell 2000 Is For Losers, But Is Currently Winning

Oct 2, 2025 3 min read paid

The Russell 2000 small-cap stock price index is outperforming the S&P 600, another small-cap index (chart). The former includes many more companies that are losing money than the latter. This is yet another sign of mounting speculative froth in financial markets in response to the Fed's 25bps cut in the federal funds rate on September 17. The S&P 600's requirement

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Meet Bonnie

Oct 1, 2025 1 min read paid

Our Roaring 2020s outlook has been on target since the beginning of the decade. Over the past two quarters, GDP growth and consumer spending have been robust, and the recession widely anticipated for three years and as recently as April never showed. The Fed’s September interest-rate cut—made proactively in response to weak payroll stats—was probably a mistake that could stoke price inflation and financial speculation. While

Ed Yardeni

Another Bad JOLTS For Job Market

Oct 1, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) closed today at 666 (chart). I have fond memories of that number. I wrote on March 16, 2009: "We’ve been to Hades and back. The S&P 500 bottomed last week on March 6 at an intraday low of 666. This is a number commonly associated with the Devil. . . . The latest relief rally was sparked by lots of good

Ed Yardeni

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