Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 43)

MARKET CALL: Contrarian Indicators Showing Too Many Bears

Apr 20, 2025 4 min read paid

We don't recall this ever happening before. During the past three weeks, The Economist has featured three very bearish cover stories suggesting that the dollar might be on the verge of collapse and that so might the US stock and bond markets along with the global economy (chart). Contrarians of the world, unite! As extreme bearishness pervades world markets, the old maxim “It’s always darkest before the

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Bonds Away!?

Apr 18, 2025 9 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, April 14, 2025. Bonds I: Kerfuffle. Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon said on the company’s Friday earnings call: “There will be a kerfuffle in the Treasury markets because of all the rules and regulations. When that happens, the Fed will step in—but not until ‘they start to panic a little bit.’ He

Ed Yardeni

Gold Is Glittering

Apr 17, 2025 2 min read

We've been bullish on gold since it broke out above $2,000 per ounce at the end of February 2024. It has been trading in an upward channel since then (chart). It soared to $2,600 by the end of last year. In recent days, it has jumped to a record $3,300, which is the upper end of the channel. Our $4,000 target by the end

Ed Yardeni

Trump Making Powell The Fall Guy Again

Apr 17, 2025 3 min read paid

As we've said before, any day without Trump Tariff Turmoil (TTT) is a good day for financial markets. Despite UnitedHealth Group’s losing roughly a quarter of its value today on poor earnings and higher medical costs, the S&P 500 stayed mostly above yesterday's close all day. Even the Russell 2000 was up today. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly made progress on a

Ed Yardeni

Is The US In A Recession?

Apr 16, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 is down sharply this afternoon. Losses started in the morning due to more Trump Tariff Turmoil (TTT) news. Nvidia's disclosure that the US government's new controls on its semiconductor exports to China would result in a $5.5 billion loss dragged down its shares and major indexes. Losses extended in the afternoon after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's prepared remarks

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/16/25

Apr 16, 2025 1 min read paid

Bonds Away!? Long-term Treasury bond yields surged last week despite news that March inflation was subdued and consumer sentiment is falling fast. That’s partly because the federal budget deficit is too d@mn high! In the past, recessions and lower long-term bond yields were associated with higher deficits; but the budget deficit has been widening since Covid despite a growing economy. Supply of long-term bonds also

Ed Yardeni

A Rubik's Cube Of Questions Along With Some Weak Soft Data

Apr 15, 2025 3 min read paid

Will tariffs boost inflation and depress the US and global economies? Will inflation be transitory or persistent? Will the economy remain surprisingly resilient, at least for the next few months? Will consumers retrench after they go on a tariff-beating buying binge? Will robust capital spending related to onshoring offset weakness related to Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT)? Will China and the US escalate their trade war? Who will

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Rise On Latest Trump Pivot

Apr 14, 2025 3 min read paid

Any day with a Trump Pivot is a good day for the stock market. Shares of automakers closed higher today after President Donald Trump said he is looking to "help some of the car companies" with his 25% auto tariff (chart). The automakers "need a little bit of time" to move their production to the US, Trump said. Tech stocks rose too after guidance on Friday

Ed Yardeni

Tit-For-Tat: The Opposite Of Panda Diplomacy

Apr 14, 2025 2 min read

The trade war between the US and China is heating up, increasing the risk that China will invade Taiwan. Let us explain. On April 11, Reuters reported the following: "Shipments of seven rare earths placed on an export control list last week by Beijing have ground to halt, three sources said, raising the risk of shortages overseas as Chinese exporters begin the long, uncertain wait for government licenses. Shipments

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 14–18

Apr 13, 2025 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will provide updates on the goods-producing sector, consumer spending, and inflation. Macroeconomic data may be drowned out by more explosive volatility in the financial markets attributable to Trump's Nitro Tariffs (TNT). In addition, the Q1 earnings season has started, and company managements are likely to provide lots of "we-have-no-idea" guidance as a result of TNT. In any event,

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Follow The Bouncing POTUS

Apr 13, 2025 4 min read paid

In our December 17 Morning Briefing, we wrote: "With bullishness abounding, contrarian indicators are flashing red, and we see the potential for a market correction early next year." Our major concern was that the stock market's bulls were discounting too many cuts in the federal funds rate this year, while the bond market's bears were signaling that the Fed had already cut the rate

Ed Yardeni

Bond Vigilantes Remain Unhappy

Apr 10, 2025 3 min read

It was not a happy day in the bond market. Neither was it a happy day in the stock market: Bond Market. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to 4.45% this evening, up from a recent low of 4.01% on April 4, two days after Liberation Day. Yesterday, President Donald Trump partially postponed Liberation Day because the bond market was "tricky." It remained tricky today.

Ed Yardeni

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