Paid Valuation-Led Selloff Led by Magnificent-7 Jul 24, 2024 2 min read paid Today's stock market rout was led by the Magnificent-7. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) was down 6.1% today, and down 8.3% since the S&P 500 peaked at a record high during July 16 (chart). The S&P 500 is down 4.2% since then to 5427.13, just below its 50-day moving average (chart). Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/24/24 Jul 24, 2024 1 min read paid Characterizing the investing backdrop at this juncture are big unknowns about the near-term future, such as which administration will be controlling fiscal policy six months from now and what monetary policy will be at that time. So it’s no wonder that multiple consensus viewpoints seem to be moving financial markets this way and that. Today, Dr. Ed and Eric Wallerstein examine what’s been driving the commodities, fixed income, Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid Dow Theory Is So Yesterday Jul 23, 2024 2 min read paid The DJIA is down 2.1% from its record high of 41,198 reached last Wednesday (chart). The DJTA was down 1.6% today, remaining below its record high in early 2022. According to Dow Theory, the DJTA needs to break out to a record high to confirm the DJIA's rise to this point and support further advances. The theory is that a sustainable bull market in stocks Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid An Earnings-Driven Bull Market Jul 22, 2024 3 min read paid Yesterday, we suggested that the stock market selloff since the July 16 record high in the S&P 500 might not last very long. So we were pleased by today's broad rally in the S&P 500 (1.1%), Nasdaq (1.6%), Russell 2000 (1.7%), and the MAGS (2.4%). We expect that a solid print in Q2's real GDP on Thursday and Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid Market Call: Ups & Downs of the Stock Market Cycle Jul 21, 2024 2 min read paid The S&P 500 is down 2.9% from its record high of 5667.20 on Tuesday, July 16. The following day semiconductor stocks got whacked on news that the Biden administration is considering draconian measures to clamp down on foreign companies which manufacture chipmaking machinery from selling their products in China (chart). Of course, the pain spread quickly to the Magnificent-7 including Nvidia, which should find support north Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid The Economic Week Ahead: July 22-26 Jul 21, 2024 3 min read paid The week ahead is jampacked with key economic indicators, including the first read on Q2's real GDP and June's PCED inflation rate. We're expecting robust economic growth and further progress toward the Fed's 2.0% inflation target. The latest regional business survey might also confirm our forecast that the goods-producing sector is entering a rolling recovery. Here's our outlook for Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid DEEP DIVE: Immaculate Disinflation Jul 19, 2024 4 min read paid During the spring of 2022, Debbie and I predicted that inflation was peaking: “In our scenario, the PCED headline inflation rate peaks during H1-2022 between 6%-7%. Led by consumer durable goods prices, it moderates to 4%-5% during H2-2022. Next year, it falls to 3%-4% as persistently rising rent inflation offsets moderation in other consumer prices.” We wrote that in our April 19, 2022 Morning Briefing. We expected Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid Stock Market Rotates To Interest-Rate Sensitive Sectors Jul 18, 2024 3 min read paid The bull market in stocks has been quite volatile in recent days as it rotates and broadens. The triggering event was a better-than-expected June CPI report on Thursday, July 11. Since then, the financial markets priced in a 100% probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Investors responded by rotating out of the S&P 500's Magnificent-7 into the S&P 1493 (i.e., 1500 Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid Is The Bull Market Broadening Or Rotating? Jul 17, 2024 2 min read paid Many investors are wondering if the recent outperformance of the S&P 400 and the S&P 600 (i.e., the "SMidCaps") and the equal-weighted S&P 500 reflect a sustainable broadening of the bull market. Or is it a temporary rotation out of the Magnificent-7 into the S&P 493 and the SMidCaps? For now, we're in the camp that breadth Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/17/24 Jul 17, 2024 1 min read paid In congressional testimony last week, Fed Chair Powell sounded more dovish than he has this tightening cycle. That clinched financial markets’ growing expectation that the Fed would cut the federal funds rate as early as September. We believe so too. Now that inflation is closing in on the Fed’s 2.0% target, Fed officials are increasingly focused on keeping the unemployment rate low. … From today’s vantage point, it’ Eric Wallerstein
Public Fed Pivot, Trump 2.0, SCOTUS Chevron Ruling & Earnings Broaden Stock Market Meltup Jul 16, 2024 3 min read We've been predicting a broadening stock market meltup in the event that the Fed starts cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) as inflation moderates while economic growth remains solid. Last week's CPI and today's retail sales report confirm that's what's happening in the economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments yesterday sealed the deal: As of this morning, Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein
Paid Panda In A China Shop Jul 15, 2024 3 min read paid China just loaned two young pandas to the San Diego Z00. In the past, such Panda Diplomacy suggested that relations between the US and China might be improving. It's hard to come to that conclusion currently since both US presidential candidates seem to agree that the US needs to slap more tariffs on Chinese goods. China remains very dependent on exports to boost its economy, especially since the Ed Yardeni Eric Wallerstein