Archive

Economy Is Growing, While Job Indicators Remain Solid

Aug 26, 2025 2 min read

The monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey includes the most timely monthly indicators of the labor market. August's survey was released today (chart). The jobs-plentiful series remained relatively high at 29.7%. The jobs-available series fell to 50.3%, which is above its average over time of 48.2%. That drop was matched by an uptick in the jobs-hard-to-get series to 20.0%. In our opinion, these stats

Ed Yardeni

Is the Bull Market In Stocks Finally Broadening?

Aug 25, 2025 3 min read

The Magnificent-7 stocks have been leading the charge of the current bull market that started on October 12, 2022. They are all in the Nasdaq 100, which is up 117.9% so far since the start of the bull market, beating all the other major US stock market indexes (chart). The Mag-7's market capitalization share of the S&P 500 has doubled during the current bull market

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 25-29

Aug 24, 2025 3 min read

Now that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is talking the talk of easing, markets are on the lookout for whether upcoming data are walking the walk. A Fed rate cut next month isn't a done deal, no matter what Powell hinted at last Friday at Jackson Hole. A lot can happen in a few weeks. Before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets September 16-17, policymakers will see a

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: Stocks Discounting Fed Put

Aug 24, 2025 3 min read

Ever since the release of the weaker-than-expected July employment report at the start of this month, stock investors have been betting that the Fed Put is back in play and that it will probably be implemented at the FOMC's meeting on September 16-17. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had been pushing back against this notion since early this year by saying that the Fed is in no rush to

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Stock Market Discounting Fed Put, Which The Economy Does Not Need

Aug 24, 2025 5 min read paid

The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated August 18, 2025. Exercising Fed Put Would Fuel Stock Market Meltup. Stock investors have been joyously discounting a Fed rate cut in September following the release of July’s weaker-than-expected employment report. The S&P 500 rose to yet another record high on Thursday. It is up 3.4% since the close on August 1—the day of the

Ed Yardeni

Waiting For The Chair To Speak

Aug 21, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock and bond prices have been marking time over the past couple of weeks, waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to speak tomorrow at 10 a.m. at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Meanwhile, today's batch of economic indicators supports our view that a Fed rate cut may not be warranted at the September 16-17 meeting of the FOMC if the other indicators released in the coming days also

Ed Yardeni

Gold & Other Commodities

Aug 20, 2025 3 min read

On balance, there aren't a lot of inflationary pressures in the commodity markets. Precious metals are on top of the leaderboard so far this year among the major commodity price gains (chart). Platinum, gold, and silver are ranked #1, #2, and #3. These shiny metals have become safe havens for many investors as a result of unsettling geopolitical crises in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Global trade

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Another Candidate For Fed Chair

Aug 20, 2025 1 min read paid

Dr Ed is sticking to his guns: He has contended since early last year that the US economy is too resilient and inflation is not close enough to 2.0% for Fed officials to muck around with easing. The widespread expectation that they will ease anyway in September is lifting stocks, and the actual event may cause a stock market meltup. The bond market’s reaction to unwarranted easing is

Ed Yardeni

Dueling Fed Mandates

Aug 19, 2025 4 min read paid

The Fed is required by law to keep inflation low and stable while also maintaining full employment. Achieving that dual mandate isn't always easy. Currently, the labor market is at full employment, but there are a few signs of weakening. Inflation was on track to fall to the Fed's 2.0% inflation target, but has been stuck around 3.0% recently. Some Fed officials believe that

Ed Yardeni

Foreign Investors Aren't Following The Dollar-Is-Bad Script

Aug 19, 2025 2 min read paid

By most accounts, almost everyone is bearish on the dollar. Nearly everyone is selling dollars to buy euros and gold, according to this widely held view. Global investors are rebalancing their equity portfolios out of US stocks into European stocks. The only problem with this narrative is that the monthly capital flows data collected by the Treasury International Capital System (TICS), which was updated on Friday, show that US foreign

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 18 - 22

Aug 17, 2025 3 min read

Wolf pack sightings aren’t uncommon in Grand Teton National Park. But this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may find himself fending off a large pack of them again as Federal Reserve officials gather for their annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The two-plus weeks since July's week employment surprise have given economic pessimists room to roam. Weaker-than-expected data, though, now confront hotter inflation sightings. Given the core

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: Will Powell Be Hawkish, Dovish, Or Owlish In The Grand Tetons?

Aug 17, 2025 3 min read members

The 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will focus on "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy." The symposium is scheduled for August 21-23. It's an annual event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, bringing together central bankers, policymakers, economists, and academics to discuss important economic issues and long-term policy challenges. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak

Ed Yardeni