Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 82)

Productivity Revised Up

Dec 6, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market marked time again today with the S&P 500 remaining around 4550. The 10-year Treasury bond yield continued to fall today to 4.10%. Apparently, today's economic indicators were deemed to be more bullish for bonds than stocks. Consider the following: (1) Employment & wages. ADP reported that payrolls rose just 103,000 during November. Job-stayers saw a 5.6% pay increase in November,

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/6/23

Dec 6, 2023 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Soft Landing Remains In Play and Bullish

Dec 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is taking a rest just north of 4550 and south of 4600. Stock investors are waiting for November's jobs report on Friday to decide what to do next. Meanwhile, bond investors aren't waiting to buy more bonds. They liked the latest batch of economic indicators and drove the 10-year Treasury bond yield below 4.25%. Here is a brief overview of

Ed Yardeni

Better Bull Breadth?

Dec 4, 2023 2 min read paid

The latest bull market started on October 12, 2022. Its detractors have been saying that it may not be the real thing. They've observed that it has been narrowly led by the MegaCap-8. That's true. The bearish naysayers have concluded that the bull market therefore isn't sustainable. We disagree. Our alternative outlook is that the bull market should broaden, which may be starting to

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Monitoring Geopolitical Risk In the Middle East

Dec 3, 2023 2 min read paid

The Santa Claus rally is about to be tested again by the prospects of a regional war in the Middle East. The Gaza War started on October 7, when Hamas attacked Israel. Yet both bond and stock prices have rallied since late October as investors bet that it would stay localized. So far, it has. Indeed, even the price of a barrel of brent crude oil has declined since then

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 4 - 8

Dec 3, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Earnings Climbing Higher

Dec 1, 2023 2 min read

S&P 500 earnings per share are heading up according to industry analysts. We agree. There was lots of pessimism over the past year, with a few influential Wall Street strategists predicting that this year’s result could break bad, i.e., below $200. We stuck with our projections of $225 for this year and $250 for 2024, which seemed farfetched (if not delusional) late last year. But then

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Cooling

Nov 30, 2023 2 min read paid

Stocks rallied today as October's PCED inflation rate continued to moderate. Most importantly, the inflation rate of PCED services excluding energy and housing is falling. It has been stuck around 5.0% in 2022 and earlier this year. But it was down to 3.9% y/y in October (chart). Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have said that they are concerned about the stickiness of this

Ed Yardeni

Beige Book Paints Beige Economic Picture

Nov 29, 2023 2 min read

The bond market liked today's Beige Book, the collection of regional surveys of economic activity conducted by each of the 12 Fed district banks. While Q3's real GDP growth was revised up to a red hot 5.2%, the latest survey from October 6 to November 17 was more like a cool beige color. Six of the 12 Fed banks reported slight declines in economic activity.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/29/23

Nov 29, 2023 1 min read paid

Our Roaring 2020s outlook for this decade centers on the idea that technological innovations such as the so-called BRAIN technologies will be widely adopted by companies, fueling productivity growth that minimizes the economy’s major problem of a tight labor market and drives widespread prosperity. The pandemic derailed a productivity boom that started gathering steam in late 2015 and is just this year getting back on track. We think the

Ed Yardeni

Loose Fed Lips Sink Yields

Nov 28, 2023 2 min read paid

Not much happened in the stock market today even though the 10-year bond yield fell to 4.34% from a high of 4.98% on October 19 (chart). The 2-year yield sank to 4.73%, the lowest since July 17. This morning, Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that inflation is still too high. But he also said that if inflation continues to cool “for several more months—I don’t

Ed Yardeni

China: The World's Largest Nursing Home

Nov 27, 2023 2 min read

China’s economy is in a property-led and fertility-led depression. That’s bad news for China’s people and for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) but benefits countries that import Chinese goods at depressed prices. China’s weak economy is good news for the US in particular, helping to moderate goods inflation without a recession here, a.k.a. "immaculate disinflation." It would be in China’s interest

Ed Yardeni

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