Ed Yardeni

Bear-Market Rally Or New Bull?

Aug 13, 2022 1 min read paid

We won't keep you in suspense: We think the bear market in the S&P 500 bottomed on June 16. If so, then we're in a new bull market. Consider the following based on our Blue Angels framework (chart below): (1) Corrections occur in bull markets when investors fear a recession that doesn't happen. The forward P/E drops, while forward earnings continues

Ed Yardeni

Watching The Pump Price

Aug 12, 2022 1 min read

Everyone who drives a car or rides in one knows the price of gasoline on a daily basis. The sharp drop in this price during July fueled the rally in the stock and bond markets as investors concluded that it would help to moderate July's CPI and PPI, which it did as expected over the past two days. We will be watching this price along with everyone else

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: US Is The Safest Harbor In Stormy World Sea

Aug 12, 2022 5 min read paid

Our basic premise about the outlook for the global economy through the end of 2023 is that a recession is more likely to occur in Europe and China than in the US. Of course, a global recession that starts abroad could push the US economy into a recession if it is already vulnerable to one. On the other hand, global investors might conclude that the US is the only major

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Rally As Earnings Estimates Get Cut

Aug 11, 2022 1 min read

Go figure: When industry analysts raised their earnings estimates during the first half of the year, investors thought they were delusional. Investors proceeded to trash stocks because they feared a recession. Now that analysts are finally cutting their estimates, investors have been snapping up stocks since June 16 because they were cheap, especially now that recession fears have abated. The charts below show that analysts collectively have been reducing their

Ed Yardeni

Plenty of Sunshine In Q3's GDPNow & July's CPI

Aug 10, 2022 1 min read paid

There's lots of sunshine in the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model. Today's estimate shows that real GDP is rising at a 2.5% pace (saar) during Q3 (table). Consumer spending is tracking at 2.7%. It is looking like an up quarter for capital spending, government outlays, and exports so far. The downers, so far, are residential investment, imports, and the change in private

Ed Yardeni

Hooray: Inflation Cooled Off In July!

Aug 10, 2022 1 min read

July's headline and core CPI inflation rates were lower than expected at 0.0% and 0.3% (table below). The y/y rates were down to 8.5% and 5.9% below recent peaks of 9.1% (in June) and 6.5% in March). That's consistent with our view that inflation is peaking, but remains too high. So we expect that the Fed will hike the

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Inflation Indicators

Aug 9, 2022 1 min read

Today we learned that July's survey of small business owners showed that inflation might have peaked. On the other hand, there was no peak in today's productivity and unit labor costs report for Q2: (1) The small business owners survey found that 56% of them are raising prices, while 37.0% are planning to do so. Both are down from their peaks earlier this year. However,

Ed Yardeni

Analysts Cutting Earnings Estimates

Aug 9, 2022 1 min read paid

Industry analysts weren't bullish enough about the Q2 earnings of the S&P 500. So far, 87% of S&P 500 companies have reported revenues and earnings for Q2. The revenue and earnings surprises are historically strong but near their lowest readings since the pandemic recovery began. Revenues are beating the consensus forecast by 2.8% and earnings by 6.0%.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/8/22

Aug 8, 2022 1 min read

July’s surprisingly strong payroll employment report points to a strong July reading for the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. This is good news for the economy, bad news for the fixed-income market, and mixed news for the stock market. While it squashes

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Expectations Looking Peakish

Aug 8, 2022 1 min read

July's survey of consumer expectations (SCE), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of NY, had some good news for Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the financial markets too: (1) Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations both declined sharply in July, from 6.8% and 3.6% in June to 6.2% and 3.2%, respectively. The press release noted: "Both decreases were broad-based across income groups, but

Ed Yardeni

Valuation-Led Rally Could Sputter This Week

Aug 7, 2022 1 min read paid

The bull runs in the bond market since June 14 and the stock market since June 16 could stall this week. Both markets have probably discounted that July's CPI report (on Wednesday) should be moderated by falling gasoline prices and durable goods prices, while rent inflation could be more troublesome. The markets may not have fully discounted the likelihood that July's strong employment report (reported this

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, August 8-12

Aug 7, 2022 1 min read

It's a big week for inflation indicators. The fun starts on Monday, when the FRB-NY releases its July survey of consumer expectations for inflation over the next 12 months and 36 months. Falling gasoline prices last month might have reduced expectations for inflation a bit. Then on Tuesday, Q2's productivity and labor costs release is likely to show another big drop in the former and sharp

Ed Yardeni

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