Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Inflation: 3.0% Is The New 2.0%

Oct 29, 2025 1 min read paid

The Fed Put is back. Given the likelihood of two more reductions in the federal funds rate before year-end, we’re reducing the odds of our bullish base-case Roaring 2020s scenario from 55% to 50% and raising the odds of an even more bullish stock market meltup from 25% to 30%. Indeed, the stock market jumped Friday in reaction to a cooler-than-expected inflation report, since it buoys the case for

Ed Yardeni

Reality Check

Oct 28, 2025 3 min read paid

Shares of Nokia soared by 23% today after the telecom equipment provider announced a billion-dollar partnership with artificial intelligence (AI) giant Nvidia. As part of the deal, Nvidia plans to invest $1 billion in Nokia in exchange for a 2.9% stake in the Finnish networking pioneer. Yardeni Research is seeking an investment from Nvidia. The funds will be used to build a data center in Dr Ed's

Ed Yardeni

Just Another AI (Mania?) Day

Oct 27, 2025 3 min read paid

Today was just another day in the stock market. The S&P 500 rose to another record high of 6875.16. Also closing at record highs were the Nasdaq, the DJIA, and the Russell 2000. Been there, done it! More record highs are likely when the Fed cuts the federal funds rate by 25bps on Wednesday. On Thursday, President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to

Ed Yardeni

Economic Week Ahead: October 27-31

Oct 26, 2025 3 min read

The week ahead will see central banks commanding the spotlight as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England weigh in on both interest rates and the balance of economic risks. All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee, which is widely expected to deliver another 25bps rate cut on Wednesday. Given cooler-than-expected September CPI data, odds are rising that the Fed will

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Fly Us To The Moon

Oct 25, 2025 4 min read

The major stock market indexes rocketed to new record highs on Friday. We are raising the odds of a meltup from 25% to 30%, reducing the odds of our bullish base-case scenario from 55% to 50%, while leaving the bearish alternative scenario at 20%. In our base-case scenario, the S&P 500 stock price index rises to 7000 by the end of this year and 7700 by the end

Ed Yardeni

Economy Still Moving Forward

Oct 23, 2025 3 min read paid

The government shutdown continues to shut off the supply of many economic indicators. Tomorrow's CPI inflation rate for September is an exception. It is widely expected to remain stuck at 3.0% on a y/y basis. Based on a few conversations with friends about their businesses, we won't be surprised if the CPI is hotter than that, since President Donald Trump's tariffs may

Ed Yardeni

Bubble, Bubble, Toil & Trouble

Oct 22, 2025 4 min read paid

A few weeks ago, we observed a bubble in fears of a bubble. The fearmongers see an "everything bubble" that will soon burst. The expression "the bubble in everything" began gaining traction during the tenure of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen (2014–2018), but it became widely associated with Jerome Powell's leadership and the monetary stimulus of the 2020–2021 pandemic era. In other

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Halloween Is Coming

Oct 22, 2025 1 min read paid

Investors’ panic attack Thursday was another of many short-lived frights that haunt bull runs. Our economic analyses help us spot the difference between panic-generated minor pullbacks and scarier downturns like corrections and bear markets. Corrections tend to occur when investors fear a recession that doesn’t happen. Bear markets tend to be caused by recessions. Currently, the economy remains resilient, and a recession is unlikely, in our opinion. Plenty of

Ed Yardeni

China's Economy Has A Few Major Problems

Oct 21, 2025 3 min read

China's economy is struggling with excessive debt, deflation, excess capacity, and a rapidly aging population. China continues to rely on exports to support economic growth. China has been increasingly accused of dumping its excess production in world markets. This is exacerbating trade frictions, especially with the US. The Chinese government's efforts to stimulate domestic consumption have largely failed to achieve this goal. The problem is that

Ed Yardeni

Market Musings

Oct 20, 2025 3 min read paid

Apple's stock price hit a new record high today on a report that sales of this year's iPhone models had started strongly. Shares of the tech giant climbed 3.9%, closing at $262.24 and helping the company surpass Microsoft to become the second largest in the US by market capitalization (chart). Only Nvidia is larger. That helped to lift the S&P 500 by

Ed Yardeni

Economic Week Ahead: October 20-24

Oct 19, 2025 3 min read

We're entering yet another week of limited visibility on the economy thanks to the government shutdown. This leaves markets attempting to fill the statistical void with private surveys, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and the odd corporate report to gauge the balance of economic risks. This gives added weight to October's flash purchasing managers' index data (Fri) for both manufacturing and services. Just as important

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Did Santa Come Early To Wall Street? Is He Leaving Now?

Oct 18, 2025 3 min read

We've been monitoring the relationship between the S&P 500's ytd performance versus its comparable average of the past 10 years (chart). This year, the index has been much more volatile than the average and has outperformed the average by about five percentage points since early August. Does this mean that the traditional Santa Claus rally started early this year and is over already? Over

Ed Yardeni

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