Ed Yardeni

Is Something About To Blow Up In The Credit Markets?

Apr 8, 2025 3 min read

The S&P 500 is now down almost 19%. It closed at 4982.77 (chart). If it falls another 1.35% down to 4915.32, it will be in a bear market. The index was up sharply at the start of trading today, but closed down 1.6% during regular trading hours after the magnitude and imminence of the Trump administration’s tariffs on US imports hit home. After

Ed Yardeni

Looking For A Stock Market Bottom In Fundamentals & Technicals

Apr 7, 2025 3 min read paid

After the stock market crashed on Thursday and Friday of last week, we have to conclude that any day during which the Dow Jones Industrial Average isn't down more than 1000 points is a good day. Today was an okay day. The DJIA plunged 1652.81 through 9:42 a.m. It then soared 2518.86 by 10.16 a.m. on a bogus report that President Trump

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Wall Street Is Main Street

Apr 6, 2025 4 min read paid

Conspiracy theories are usually wrong even though they seem to explain a lot. The latest conspiracy theory floating on social media is that President Donald Trump is causing a recession to bring interest rates down to reduce the federal government's net interest outlays and to lower mortgage rates to make homes more affordable. A recession would also weaken the foreign exchange value of the dollar, which would boost

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Annihilation Days

Apr 6, 2025 9 min read paid

💡This is a special advance release of Monday’s Morning Briefing, normally reserved for our institutional clients. Given recent developments, we wanted to share it with our QuickTakes community as well. As always, your comments are welcome. Trump’s Tariffs I: President’s Exit Ramp. So far, congressional Republicans are giving Trump Tariffs 2.0 the benefit of the doubt. Some are voicing their concerns. A few Senate Republicans are

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK: APRIL 7-11

Apr 6, 2025 3 min read paid

While Trump's tariffs will likely dominate the headlines, the economic week ahead will also focus on the inflationary impact of US import duties. We expect March's CPI (Thu) and PPI (Fri) to confirm our concern that higher goods prices will lift headline inflation measures quickly, preventing an easing policy response from the Fed. In other words, the Fed Put is likely on hold this year even

Ed Yardeni

Stock Vigilantes Declare: 'Mr. President, Tear Down This Tariff Wall!'

Apr 4, 2025 3 min read

China imposed a 34% tariff on imports of US goods in retaliation for President Donald Trump's trade war today. The S&P 500 continues to fall freely and the Nasdaq entered bear market territory this morning. On March 10, when the S&P 500 closed at 5614.56, we wrote in our QuickTakes: "The Stock Market Vigilantes have spoken. They don't like tariffs,

Ed Yardeni

BONUS CONTENT: Damage Assessment Report In 16 Charts Of Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0

Apr 3, 2025 2 min read

View All QuickTakesView Our Live Charts💡Join the discussion with Ed below! To leave comments or questions, log in to the Yardeni QuickTakes website and post them at the end of the QuickTakes article. Paid members' contributions may be featured in our segment, "Ed Answers Your Questions".

Ed Yardeni

More Bad News Caused By Trump Turmoil 2.0

Apr 3, 2025 3 min read paid

Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 has caused a stock market selloff that is in full swing. The Nasdaq fell around 5% and the S&P 500 nearly 4% in the first hour of trading. The 10-year Treasury yield sank 16bps to 4.03% as recession fears outweigh inflation fears. Yesterday's Liberation Day festivities in the Rose Garden set off a freefall in stock prices on increasing fears

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Greet Liberation Day With Bronx Cheers

Apr 2, 2025 3 min read

President Donald Trump and his guests at the Rose Garden today celebrated Liberation Day. Stock investors won't be celebrating tomorrow based on the plunge in futures prices tied to the DJIA, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq-100. The Stock Market Vigilantes are not happy. Trump announced that on April 5, his administration will impose a 10% tariff rate on all imports from all of America's

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/2/25

Apr 2, 2025 1 min read paid

Trump’s Reign Of Tariffs: Stagflation Odds Up, S&P 500 Target Down The expected fallout from Trump 2.0’s Reign of Tariffs undercuts our former bullishness and dims the prospects of our base-case Roaring 2020s scenario for now. It has also drained confidence in the US economy on the parts of everyone from CEOs to consumers to investors. Recent data showing manufacturing faltering and purchasing managers paying

Ed Yardeni

Unsettling Economic Policy Conditions Starting To Unsettle The Economy

Apr 1, 2025 3 min read

Today's batch of economic indicators shows a few signs that Trump Turmoil 2.0 started to weigh on the economy during March. That’s the message from the month's national ISM manufacturing purchasing managers survey. February's construction spending report shows that this sector is losing its upward momentum, for now. On the other hand, February's JOLTS release shows that the labor market

Ed Yardeni

Our New S&P 500 Earnings & Price Targets Under Trump's Reign Of Tariffs

Mar 31, 2025 4 min read

Yesterday, we reduced the odds of our Roaring 2020s base-case scenario from 65% to 55% and raised the odds of a stagflationary scenario from 35% to 45%. The latter includes the possibility of a shallow recession later this year, following a buy-in-advance shopping spree during April and May. We did so because Trump's Reign of Tariffs imposed a 25% permanent tariff on imported autos and auto parts last

Ed Yardeni

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