Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Did Santa Come Early To Wall Street? Is He Leaving Now?

Oct 18, 2025 3 min read

We've been monitoring the relationship between the S&P 500's ytd performance versus its comparable average of the past 10 years (chart). This year, the index has been much more volatile than the average and has outperformed the average by about five percentage points since early August. Does this mean that the traditional Santa Claus rally started early this year and is over already? Over

Ed Yardeni

DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES: AI, Oracle & Big Brother

Oct 17, 2025 4 min read paid

In this new world of AI, we tend to focus on all of the positives it can bring to our lives by doing things faster, smarter, and more efficiently. But there is also a darker side to AI: Governments and law enforcement agencies can use it to establish a surveillance state. To understand what happens when AI and technology are used to control populations, one needs only look at China.

Jackie Doherty
Ed Yardeni

Cockroaches

Oct 17, 2025 3 min read paid

"When you see one cockroach, there are probably more," JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on the company's earnings conference call earlier this week in relation to the First Brands and Tricolor Holdings fallout. These are two auto-related companies that have recently declared bankruptcy. First Brands, which is in the auto parts business, reportedly is facing a criminal investigation. Tricolor specialized in used car sales and

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 And Gold Price Racing Toward $10,000 By 2029?

Oct 16, 2025 4 min read paid

We first began writing about our Roaring 2020s scenario in 2020. So far, so good. Both the S&P 500 and the price of gold have been roaring ahead to new record highs this year (chart). We wouldn't be surprised if both hit 10,000 by the end of the decade. The stock price index and the gold price have exhibited an inverse cyclical correlation, but their

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Slim Pickin's Among Economic Indicators

Oct 15, 2025 4 min read paid

The following is an excerpt from our October 14 Morning Briefing for institutional investors. We are sharing it with our QuickTakes members today. It isn’t easy being an economist when the government shutdown shuts off the flow of economic data. Nevertheless, the Fed is still open for business and issuing economic releases. So are several private-sector sources of economic indicators. On balance, the data we do have suggest

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Trump Trade Turmoil, Again

Oct 15, 2025 1 min read paid

The latest US–China aggressions have the financial markets worried about the high stakes of a trade war between the globe’s biggest trading nation and its largest economy. William observes that a disruption to global supply chains would have adverse consequences for earnings, economic growth, and central banks’ pursuit of their mandates. But given the severity of the consequences, we expect a quick de-escalation of the tensions, with

Ed Yardeni

Gold Is The New Bitcoin!

Oct 14, 2025 4 min read paid

Investors are mining for gold and rare earth minerals. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and the VanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) are up 57.3% and 104.4% ytd (Fig. 1 below). The trading volumes of both have increased sharply in recent weeks (Fig. 2 and Fig. 3). Both have been benefiting from rising geopolitical tensions between the US and both Russia and China. On October

Ed Yardeni

Will Next Year Be Another Good Year To Go Global?

Oct 13, 2025 4 min read paid

Go Global has outperformed Stay Home so far this year. Based on FTSE data, the US stock market index (up 11.8% ytd) has underperformed the World index (13.4%) so far this year in local currency (chart). Its underperformance has been worse in US dollar terms since the greenback has been weak this year. Among the outperformers this year, in local currency, have been South Korea (56.0%), Spain

Ed Yardeni
David Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 13 - 17

Oct 12, 2025 3 min read

As the latest episode of the “Trump versus Xi” series airs this week, it's perhaps fitting that the shuttered US government won't be releasing most key data for September. What happened last month, after all, may matter little if the two biggest economies engage in a trade war. The impact of the 130% tariff that President Donald Trump threatens to impose on China, effective November 1,

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Pullback, Correction, Or Meltdown?

Oct 12, 2025 3 min read paid

Trump Trade Turmoil hit the stock market hard on Friday as President Donald Trump raised the US tariff on Chinese imports from 30% to 130% in retaliation for China’s imposing severe export controls on its exports of rare earth minerals. This all happened ahead of a summit meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi scheduled for later this month. On Friday, Trump said he might not attend, then changed

Ed Yardeni

DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES: Banks Learn New Tricks

Oct 10, 2025 3 min read paid

Banks are applying blockchain technology to traditional banking services, aiming to make them faster, cheaper, smarter, and more resilient. JP Morgan (JPM) is among the leaders through its Kinexys division, and the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift) announced this week that it’s jumping on the bandwagon. Here’s a look at what these financial giants are doing: (1) Moving swiftly into the future Swift is working to

Ed Yardeni
Jackie Doherty

DEEP DIVE: Is The US Economy Shock Proof?

Oct 9, 2025 5 min read paid

The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing (Oct. 6, 2025) for institutional investors. US Economy I: ‘Resilient’ Is Still the Right Word Since a very short, two-month recession in early 2020, the US economy has continued to grow despite numerous shocks (Fig. 3 below). The pandemic hit the US economy during February 2020 and quickly led to the March and April lockdowns that caused a recession during

Ed Yardeni

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